Shipping Out of Boston?

Dropkick Murphys is blaring over the speakers and it’s the top of the ninth at Fenway. Jonathan Papelbon makes his way to the mound to put an end to any hope the opposing team might have left. Papelbon’s late game entrance is truly one of the great sights to see if you’re a Red Sox fan. Lately, however, it’s been one of the most nerve racking.

Jonathan Papelbon made his Red Sox debut in 2005. Papelbon didn’t come out of the bullpen during his first appearance, he started. The young 24 year-old pitched 5 1/3 innings giving up just two earned runs in his major league debut. A solid start by all accounts, but his days as a starter were numbered. Papelbon made just two more starts before becoming a permanent fixture out of the bullpen.

Fast forward to 2006

Papelbon began the season as the closer and proceeded to have one of the best stretches of his career. Papelbon made 15 appearances before giving up his first earned run, resulting in a razor thin ERA of 0.55. Papelbon’s dominance continued throughout the remainder of the season, finishing with 35 saves and a stellar 0.92 ERA. Papelbon hasn’t relinquished the closing role since taking it in 2006.

As time passed, Papelbon continued to be a force as the closer until the 2010 season. In 2010, Papelbon saw his ERA balloon to 3.90 and blew a career high eight saves. Papelbon did record 37 saves but the blown saves proved to be costly in a season in which the Red Sox did not make the post-season for the first time since 2006.

The start of the new season has mattered little for Papelbon as 2011 has been a struggle so far.  In 30 appearances, Papelbon has allowed 13 runs and currently has an ERA of 3.90. To date, Papelbon has blown just one save but this is somewhat misleading.

Here are two examples of relief appearances that are cause for concern:

May 13 (@NYY) – Entering the game with a 5-3 lead in the 9^th, Papelbon gave up two hits and one earned run before recording the save in a 5-4 win

June 4 (vs. OAK)- In a non-save situation, Papelbon gave up three hits, a walk and three earned runs before getting tossed in just 1/3 inning of work.

The current examples go unnoticed when primarily looking at save vs. blown save alone. Papelbon recorded a save in the New York game and did not blow a save in the Oakland game but his struggles in those games resemble everything bad about Papelbon’s 2010 season. In the May 13 game against New York, Papelbon was shaky at best. He allowed a run and got into a situation where he had to be perfect to get out of a jam. Against Oakland, Papelbon struggled against an anemic offense. Oakland currently ranks 26^th overall in runs, 27^th in batting average, 26^th in on base percentage, 28^th in slugging percentage. Oakland isn’t exactly a team that you would expect a lot of trouble from when Papelbon takes the mound.

Papelbon hasn’t been terrible this season, unfortunately he hasn’t been dominant either. It’s certainly not what you would expect from someone during a contract year.  It’s also evident that Papelbon is not improving as the season continues and it may be some indication that last year was no fluke. Finally, it’s not what you would expect from a closer with a fat paycheck.

Papelbon’s contract situation is the elephant in the room. In three consecutive years, the Red Sox have given Papelbon one-year contracts instead of working out a multi-year deal. Prior to the 2009 season, deals were discussed but Papelbon and the Sox failed to work out a long term contract. Two years have since passed and no multi-year contract is in place. Papelbon is now older and his stats aren’t helping his cause for a deal. The recent hesitancy shown by the Red Sox front office isn’t a coincidence. The following are reasons why the Red Sox are reluctant in offering Papelbon a multi-year deal.

– In 2011 Papelbon will make 12 million. Relatively speaking, 12 million is extremely high compared to some of the other closers in baseball (see list below).

–  Bobby Jenks and Daniel Bard (mainly Bard) were mentioned as potential closers earlier this season. This talk went away when both Jenks and Bard struggled. Bard has since settled down and returned to his 2010 form as a solid set-up guy. Both, however, are cheaper options.

-Papelbon will turn 31 this offseason and his stats are declining. Before handing out a contract, the Red Sox would likely want to see a greater body of work to show that last year may have been a fluke. However, if a deal cannot be reached, Papelbon will become a free agent after this season. This will likely attract a few teams and increase the price to retain Papelbon.

Papelbon will demand a high salary for his next contract and will likely not accept another one-year deal due to his free agency. However, Theo Epstein knows that committing to Papelbon on a multi-year basis is not cost effective. The list below is a deeper look at some of the top closers this year with their respective salaries. The pitchers below have a save percentage (saves/save opportunities) of at least 85 percent and a minimum of 10 save opportunities. Only two teams (HOU and LAD) do not have individual pitchers with at least 10 saves opportunities.

The list of pitchers isn’t exactly exclusive as 19 out of a possible 28 populate the list (28 pitchers have at least 10 save opportunities and 19 have at least an 85 percent conversion rate). The disparity between salaries is also clearly evident. Three players on the list are close to the league minimum (414,000), while four others (including Papelbon) are clearing 10 million. Bottom line, it’s not necessary to pay a pitcher over 10 million to get similar productivity.

Of the 19 closers, Papelbon’s ERA (3.90) is currently the highest despite having one of the best conversion percentages. In addition to a high ERA, Papelbon’s salary is also high on the list. Only Mariano Rivera tops Papelbon’s salary of 12 million.

It seems if the Red Sox were going to sign Papelbon to a multi-year deal, it would have been done by now. It makes very little sense to give Papelbon a multi-year contract when considering his recent decline in performance. In addition to performance, age and salary will likely be enough to pass on Papelbon.

Of the 19 pitchers listed above, only four are signed through the 2012 season. The remaining 15 pitchers have no contract in place for the 2012 season (4 have team options for the 2012 season). Closers will be available at the end of this season, while some already exist within the organization. It’s clear, however, that Papelbon is expendable. A sad truth.

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