Can the Red Sox Lose the Division in April?

“It’s early, no need to panic.”  “They’ve got too much talent to play this poorly.”  Just wait until they all start hitting, then the runs will come.”  “The starters are better than this, they’ll get it going.”

Just a few of the common lines being used from Red Sox Nation regarding the team’s dreadful start to the 2011 season.  Yes, it is still relatively early in the season, only 11 games played and only 151 more to go.  And while a team cannot win the division based on their play in the first month, the question needs to be asked, can the Red Sox lose the division in the month of April?

The Sox currently have a 2-9 record, sitting in last place in the highly competitive AL East.  They’ve dropped 2 of 3 to the Tampa Bay Rays and with John Lackey pitching tonight, it very well could be a sweep.  For all intents and purposes, let’s give the Red Sox the win tonight.  That will put them at 3-9, tied with Tampa.  Currently, entering tonight’s game they sit 5 games back of Baltimore and 4 back of New York, who both have 2 games hand.  The Yankees and Orioles play a 3 game set, so one team will pick up at least 2 wins.  Let’s give it to the Yankees, for a record of 7-4, with a make up game still to be determined for last night’s rain out.  That would leave Boston 4.5 games back of the division lead.  Yes it would be only 4.5 games, so need to panic, but what if the Red Sox don’t turn things around and continue to struggle for the month of April?

The Red Sox play 27 games the first month.  11 down 16 to go, including tonight’s.  With series against the Blue Jays (4 games), Athletics (2 games), Angels (4 games), Orioles (3 games) and Mariners(2 games in April), they have an opportunity to close the gap.  If they play .500 ball over the next 16 games, they would most likely lose ground in the AL East lead and could be as many as 8 games, if not more, behind the leader come May 1st.  Think of it this way, over the next 16 games, the Red Sox could go 12-4 and still only be one game over .500.

They still have 18 games against the Orioles and Blue Jays, and after tonight they’ll have 15 left against the Yankees and Rays.  That’s 66 games left out of 150 against divisional opponents.  Those games will be as crucial as ever if the Red Sox are going to capture the division.  Especially when they find themselves in last place and have to pass 4 other teams, who will also have over 66 games against divisional opponents.  So one divisional team will be getting the wins in those games.

So, can the Red Sox play themselves out of contention for the AL East division in the month of April? In short, no, but if they don’t turn things around they can certainly put themselves behind the 8 ball and make things much more difficult than they need to be.  I know there are a lot of what ifs in this scenario and much speculation is being made, but it is a possible reality.

I for one believe they will turn it around and get put themselves in good position to make a run at the division. All the Red Sox need to worry about is their own play and focus on winning one game at a time.  Leave the speculation for us who love to write about it.

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