Beltre Wants to Stay in Boston

On the day the Red Sox sign their captain Jason Varitek to a 1-year deal, another one of their targets gives Boston a big endorsement. Adrian Beltre told Boston Globe reporters who were covering the David Ortiz Golf Charity Tournament in the Dominican Republic yesterday that his preference is to stay in Boston for the 2011 season and beyond. “I got used to seeing that park full in the first inning and still full in the ninth inning. I liked that atmosphere.” Although that is encouraging news for the Red Sox, there are other factors involved that may prevent the 3rd baseman from returning. “If everything was close to the same, I would go back to Boston. But we have to see. The number of years is what is important to me.” Besides the number of years, the Dominican native currently lives in Los Angeles and has reportedly been offered a substantial contract from the Oakland Athletics, which is obviously much closer to home than New England. What does this report really mean for the Red Sox?

First off, it is always a great starting point in a negotiation when the player openly speaks about wanting to come back to your team. No matter how you cut it, player preference is crucial in making a decision on a  big contract. Beltre mentioned he wasn’t happy that Victor Martinez left the team, but felt a special bond with his teammates in 2010 and because of that, enjoyed his time here. “These guys are my friends and they made me feel part of the team.” Beltre also mentioned he wants to be with a contender, which gives the Sox an edge over a few other teams. The Athletics are an up-and-coming franchise that will likely, if the trend continues, field a stronger and stronger team over the next few years, but will they ever reach the true contender phase before Beltre retires? Your guess is as good as mine, but the 3rd baseman knows that if he wants to be on a championship caliber team immediately, Boston is the place to be.

That being said, Beltre was crystal clear that he wants a long-term deal. The Sox are likely to not offer Beltre a 4+ year deal, so regardless of his love for Boston, money and security almost always win out. It will also be a hard sell to get Beltre to commit to Boston for less than an equal deal with a west coast team given his connections and home there, so the chances Beltre actually ends up on the Sox for the next several seasons is small. It would require a hefty salary and extended years, which the Sox hate to offer an older player (with the exception of John Lackey‘s 5-year $80+ million deal last season). The Sox have an advantage over others in the emotion department, but are still seen as a slightly longer shot unless they are willing to break out of their usual mold.

I expect Beltre to make a decision within the next week or so and if I had to guess, I would say he is going to the Oakland Athletics. My opinion is worth nothing, but it is just an educated guess based on history. For the Sox sake, I hope I am wrong.