There have been a ton of headlines about Jacoby Ellsbury this season, some good, many bad, but now that he has been back with the Sox for a week, his impact going forward could make or break the season. After going 0-16 in his 1st 4 games back from the DL, Ellsbury was an on-base machine in the low-scoring affair on Monday afternoon against the New York Yankees, drawing a walk, getting hit by a pitch and hitting a single. While on base, Ellsbury showed everyone why he is so dangerous, as he collected 4 stolen bases on the day, tying the Red Sox record held by Jerry Remy. Ellsbury hit out of  the 9 hole on Monday, but ultimately would have the greatest impact leading-off.
Marco Scutaro has done a nice job out of the lead-off spot in Ellsbury’s absence, but he did not bring the threat of stolen bases to the table nearly as often. It is amazing how much pressure is placed on the opposing pitcher when a speedster gets on to begin the game, making the pitcher lose focus and potentially miss a location or two. If the Sox are going to continue a push for the post-season, scoring early will be a key for success. So far in 2010, the Sox have hit just .247 in the 1st inning of ball games, their worst average of any inning (except the much smaller sample size of extra innings, .228) however, when the Sox do hold a lead going into the 3rd inning, they are 32-9 on the season. In contrast, if the Sox are tied going into the 3rd inning, they are just 18-25 and sit at just 14-15 when falling behind entering the 3rd inning. The stats don’t lie.
Without oversimplifying the game of baseball, the catalyst for the good offense is the lead-off man. As witnessed in the above stats, when the Sox score early in games, their likelihood of winning the game sky-rockets. The key for the Sox the rest of the way is increasing their chances of winning each game they play, which will lead to more W’s and potentially a coveted spot in the post-season. If Ellsbury can get comfortable in the box and maintain a high on-base percentage, it not only puts pressure on the opposition, but it also increases the chances of a run scoring and gives the 2-6 hitters extra opportunities to come up to bat with men on base, which is what every team wants. Scutaro is a good #2 hitter in this scenario, because he takes pitches, allowing Ellsbury to get a jump and collect stolen bases left and right.
When you move past the #2 spot in the lineup, the Sox bring up the big boppers, hopefully with runners on base. That will increase the Sox chances of scoring runs early in ball games and scoring in bunches.  These concepts aren’t exactly new or rocket science, but they are the basics of run production and at this point, the Sox need to go back to basics and play fundamentally sound each and every day. If they can play solid baseball, the big hits and impressive pitching performances will just add to the momentum and belief that this team is as talented as any other out there, they just need to play that way.
All of these stats and theories of how to win in MLB are fine and dandy, but never factor in the human element of the game and the fact that 2010 just may not be meant for a Sox playoff run. At many times over the last few weeks I have teetered between belief and apathy. Just when I think this club can make a push, they lose ground or fail to close out a critical game and just when I begin to write them off, they gain ground. If the Sox don’t make the post-season, no one can deny that they certainly made the stretch run of the season more interesting, albeit frustrating, for fans to watch.
Now with 49 games remaining, the Sox are continuing to toy with our emotions and will probably continue to do so until the end of September or the beginning of October. My recommendations for survival over the next month and a half is to tape up your fingers, stock the fridge with beer (or other adult beverage of your choice) and align the lazy boy right in front of the TV, because this season is a long way from being over, for better or for worse.
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