Red Sox Round Table: Over/Under predictions for 2017
The BoSox Injection staff gives their opinions on if Boston Red Sox players will end up going over or under certain predictions this season.
Spring presents baseball fans with an opportunity to look ahead and make predictions about the upcoming season. I tossed out a few projections about the Boston Red Sox and asked our staff to decide if they felt the actual results will end up over or under those numbers.
Naturally not everyone will agree on each topic, but varying opinions is part of the fun! Let the debate begin.
Hanley Ramirez over/under 30 home runs
Sean Penney: I’ll take the over, knowing full well he’s only done that once in his career. A few injury shortened seasons are partially to blame for why he hasn’t done it more often, while he also spent most of his career playing in pitcher-friendly ballparks. He has hit a home run every 14.2 at-bats over his career when serving as the designated hitter, which would put him in the mid-30’s range if he can sustain that over a full season spent primarily in that role.
Rick McNair: I will not go over/under,but even. Another 30 for Hanley with a jacked lineup that gives him opportunities to swing.
Jake Sauberman: Under, barely. Hanley had a great 2016, but he’s only topped the 30 homer mark twice in his 12 year career. Yes, he’s adjusted his game more toward the power end, but with Moreland taking over first and Hanley regulated to a mostly DH role, I don’t see him getting enough at-bats to eclipse 30 homers. I see 26-28 as a more realistic number.
Jon Corn: Over 30 home runs but not by a lot, maybe 31-32. Him being the DH I think will help him a lot. He’ll stay healthier and more productive.
David Spampinato: Over. Hanley beefed up and it seems like he did it the right way as opposed to the way he did in 2015. I think he’ll build off his success from last year.
Chris Embree: Under – He’s only hit more than 30 home runs in a season once (he hit 30 last year so technically he didn’t go over). Right now he’s dealing with a shoulder injury and won’t play in the World Baseball Classic. We all remember how he played when he injured his shoulder in 2015. He also won’t have David Ortiz protecting him in the lineup like he did last season. I think he’ll still have a good season, but I don’t think he’ll eclipse 30 home runs.
Drew Peabody: I am not confident that Hanley can stay healthy all season, so I am going to go under on 30 homers.
Rick Porcello over/under 19 wins
Sean: Under, but not because I’m expecting a down season. The Red Sox offense will still score plenty, but run support for starters can be fickle. No pitcher received more support than the 6.61 runs per start that Porcello benefited from. David Price received almost a full run less per start with the same offense supporting him. Even if Boston’s offense remains elite, can we count on them scoring most when Porcello is on the mound again?
Rick: Under for Porcello, who will not revert to 2015 form, but more in tune with 2014 with the Detroit Tigers. Even that Porcello is a good middle rotation pitcher.
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Jake: Under. Porcello enjoyed the MLB’s most run support per game in 2016 en route to his 22 wins. Not to take anything away from his Cy Young worthy season, but even with another year of a potent offense backing him up, it’s unreasonable to assume the run support will continue at that level. I think Porcello will have another solid season, but maybe not as many wins.
Jon: Porcello will be under 19 wins. I think last year was a strange amazing phenomenon. I think he’ll do great, but still end up with less than 19 wins – maybe 16 or 17. This also depends on Price’s health. I think he’ll have less pressure but people will start finding out Porcello. He’ll be good but not amazing.
David: Under. 19 wins is a steep task for anyone. Without David Ortiz and now since there are question marks surrounding David Price, I don’t think Porcello will be able to get to 19 wins, but I do think he’ll have at least 15.
Chris: Under – I’m going to be a scrooge and say he has 18 wins. Last year was obviously a career year for him, finishing with 22 wins and the Cy Young. He also led the majors in run support. I don’t think that is sustainable and I think he will fall short of 19 wins. I also don’t think that he will as lights-out as he was last year. Will he still be good? Absolutely, but I think last year may be the best version of Rick Porcello we ever see.
Drew: I think Porcello is going over on 19 wins. He has a strong team behind him and he has all the confidence in the world at this point and certainly wants a better outcome in the end than last season.
Xander Bogaerts over/under .300 batting average
Sean: Under, but he should still reach .290 again. His developing power may come at a small expense to his batting average. I also worry about his second half fade last year when he was clearly fatigued. Participating in the World Baseball Classic this month could result in him wearing down by the tie we hit the dog days of summer.
Rick: The second half “slump” raised some warning flags, but I will go over. Bogaerts is a smart hitter who is capable of making adjustments. His”slump” and fielding deterioration in the second half may have been exhaustion.
Jake: Over. Since his terrible 2014, Bogaerts has seemed to incorporate one aspect of hitting per season. In 2015, it was contact (.320 batting average). In 2016, it was power (21 home runs). I think 2017 will be the year he puts them both together and hits around .310 with another 20+ homers. Consistency has been the issue with Bogaerts, and if he can mitigate his bad streaks just a little, he’ll reach the .300 mark with ease.
Jon: Way over .300. I think maybe .315-.325. He is an amazing hitter and can do everything. He’s just hitting his prime. If we learned anything about him last year it’s that he needs rest. The Red Sox will be cautious and rest him more frequently in the beginning to avoid the second half fatigue. It’ll be a better game plan and will equal more success.
David: Over. I’m confident Bogey will make some adjustments and get better at driving balls the other way.
Chris: Over – I’m going with my heart over my head here, assuming he’s going to develop even more than he already has. What concerns me is his 2nd half (post All-Star break) performance. He hit .253 in 72 games, compared to .329 in the 85 games before the break, and also struck out 65 times. Let’s not forget that he had to be dropped in the order as the season progressed. But like I said, I’m going with my heart and assuming that at age 24, he’s able to correct whatever was wrong with his swing at the end of the year and further progress in his hitting abilities. Even though he struggled at the end, he did manage to hit .294 for the season.
Drew: Xander is going over .300 this season. He hit .329 in the first half last season, .253 in the second half. I think the team is still learning about Bogie and they will do better at managing his work load to keep him fresher in the second half in 2017.
Craig Kimbrel over/under 3.00 ERA
Sean: Over, although I expect it to be a bit lower than last year. Only five AL relievers racked up at least 30 saves while producing an ERA under 3.00 last year. Kimbrel has the talent to do it, but I worry about the number of walks he issues. Farrell will also end up using him at times in non-save situations, just to get him some work, which is a scenario Kimbrel has struggled in. He’ll be lights out in save situations, but a few meltdowns in meaningless outings could inflate his ERA.
Rick: Under for his ERA, xFIP, FIP and any other exotic metric. Now if you said over/under on a 4.5 BB/9 I might be tempted to go over.
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Jake: Under. Despite Kimbrel’s 3.40 ERA in his first season with the team, he was as unhittable as ever, holding opponents to a .152/.283/.255 slash line. What that says is that hitters can’t make contact with the ball; the only way they get on base is via the walk. Kimbrel’s 5.1 BB/9 was uncharacteristically high, and I believe he will put a greater emphasis on throwing strikes in 2017, given that hitters can’t touch him anyway.
Jon: Under a 3.00 ERA – maybe a low 2 ERA. I think he’s going to have a huge bounce back year. He’s used to the pressure of Boston and is relatively healthy. He’s still the best young closer statistically and in his prime. I expect an All-Star year from him.
David: Under. Kimbrel pitched hurt for a decent portion of the year. His bad outings were REALLY bad, but other than that he was lights out.
Chris: Under – Let’s not forget, last season Kimbrel was on his third team in as many seasons, and he had to change leagues. That’s tough for a player to do nowadays. Even after last season, his career ERA is 1.86. I think he’ll be more settled in this year, and if he is able to control his walks, I think he’ll be able to have another sub-2.00 ERA season.
Drew: Kimbrel was still adjusting to his third team in three years in 2016, leading to his career-high in ERA. I think he puts things back together and has a sub 3 ERA this season.
Red Sox over/under 93 wins
Sean: Over. This team is at least as talented as the team that won 93 last year and that number should have been higher if they hadn’t taken their foot off the gas in the final week. Hopefully they learned their lesson about the importance of home-field advantage in the postseason and will push hard for the league’s top record.
Rick: Without Price this is still a 93 win team. With Price this is a 98+ win team so it will all come down to his injury.
Jake: Over. This is probably the most complete Red Sox team in years, on paper. Not in recent memory (assuming Price’s health) has the team had a top-3 offense to go along with what will likely be a top-3 pitching staff. Even their defense projects to be among the best with three center fielders in the outfield and Gold Glove contenders at first and second. Health will be the key for this team, because I think there’s just too much talent here to under-perform too badly (cue 2011 Red Sox nightmares). 95 wins to win the AL East is my way-too-soon prediction.
Jon: I think this number all depends on Prices health. If he is hurt for a long period of time then under 93 wins. I still think we would win the division, but just under like 89-90 wins. If he’s healthy and pitching well then over. We would win the AL East and have the best record in the league, maybe 95-96 wins. Either way, we will win the division and the 2017 World Series. #goldbottles!!
David: Over. This is assuming Price is pitching this season. Without him, the team is different and they don’t really have the fire power that they did going into spring training. I’ll take John Farrell‘s word and try not to be too concerned.
Chris: Under – If they are going to eclipse their record from last year, a lot of things need to go right. Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Rick Porcello, and Hanley Ramirez all pretty much have to repeat the seasons they had last year, especially with the losses of Big Papi, Travis Shaw, and maybe Price. Dustin Pedroia needs to stay healthy, which has been an issue for him over the past few years. Also, they need for Chris Sale and Tyler Thornburg to make a seamless transition and for Kimbrel and Pablo Sandoval to have rebound years. I still think they should be the favorites to win the division. But, it won’t be easy for them to do.
Next: Red Sox vs Pirates: Final thoughts
Drew: I think with the good news about Price, that over 93 wins is an attainable goal. Sale is going to make a tremendous difference to the depth of the rotation and at least 94 wins should not be a problem.