Red Sox: Acceptance time on David Price

The Red Sox David Price has not delivered as promised so it is time for acceptance.

There is an iconic scene in the movie “Independence Day” where the character David Levenson played by Jeff Goldblum says “time’s up” just as the alien invasion does their synchronized assault on humans. In baseball, it is now time’s up for David Price and what you have seen is what to expect for 2016.

I have been harsh on Price and often called his 2016 performance that of a Faux Ace and he still is, but the real issue is others have stepped up to assume that role and what is left is a very good pitcher. I accept that and will attempt to ignore the money.

Price certainly is the accountable type as the standard operating procedure in the post-game analysis is rife with his atonement to do better in his next start. If any style points are issued for ownership of a less than stellar performance Price certainly will earn them. There is no bobbing and weaving in the post-game verbal ring with reporters.

That aside, the fact is that after two-thirds of a season Price has been a bust, dud, disappointment and his continuing pitching malfunctions is putting a serious crimp in the Red Sox chances for making October enjoyable for Red Sox Nation. At least that is the spin on what we now have and I cannot dispute it.

What must he do?

I wish I had the magic pitching elixir and maybe even the insight of pitching coach Dustin Pedroia? I have – as have others – read the volumes of statistical data that flow on each toss by Price in about every conceivable baseball situation there is. What I do know is whatever ails his fastball is now cured or at least on the road to a healthy recovery. All the other aspects I am quite positive Price is examining in finite detail. The fact is Price may be doing exactly what he should be doing.

What is happening?

Others have looked, examined and kicked the statistical tires with far greater detail than I, but that certainly won’t stop me since my point is more about eventual acceptance of a pitcher who may have seen his best days on the mound gone. I will just drone on about what caught my attention.

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I look at the wonderful contact percentages that are so generously supplied by FanGraphs and see nothing that jumps out with a declaration of “That’s It!” The outside zone numbers and inside zone numbers are within those of 2015 when Price was magnificent – especially in Toronto.

What I do notice in the drudgery of comparison is the splits of 2015 and 2016 with right-handed batters. Price – a lefty – is experiencing a particularly depressing time with right-handers who are slashing .263/.315/.422 against him versus .216/.267/.342 in 2015.

My immediate assumption is that Fenway Park has taken another lefty to the task, but the Fenway slash is .253/.308/.424 – certainly not to 2015 standards, but no real Fenway bounce. What Price is doing for the first time in his career is giving up more hits than innings pitched and that is a 9.5 H/9 compared to 6.5 in 2015.

That H/9 is also reflected in the increase in BABIP (Batting Average Ball In Play) that has jumped from .297 in 2015 to .343 for 2016. That – of course – is translated to an elevated ERA. Both right and left handers have enjoyed a bump up in success with Price. Price may be striking out batters at a K/9 of 9.62, but they are certainly enjoying some hitting comeuppance after years of being tormented by Price.

The BABIP has improved slightly in June at .324 and another step down in July at .309, but still not up to Price like standards. What you will see is the brilliance of the past, but you will see it inconsistently. A sparkling performance followed by a tepid one.

I am not concerned about the home runs that Price has allowed as pitchers that are around the plate will do that. I am concerned about the hits and the hits that seem to come in bunches like hungry seagulls to the local landfill when a load is delivered. Hits mean runners on base and that has a tendency to result in more run scoring opportunities. I have never considered runners on base a good situation.

There is good news.

FIP and xFIP have a metrics cult following and are now beginning to be recognized as a more valid way of examining pitching than traditional ERA. I am not a total convert, but certainly see the mathematical support for it.

The home runs certainly do impact FIP and xFIP and both give some solace since those numbers are still among the best of AL starters with 100 innings pitched. Mr. Price has an FB% this season that is the second lowest of his career, but the HR/FB is the highest. A statistical anomaly? I will let the metric magicians handle that.

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The FIP and xFIP provide some nuggets that Price may just be experiencing an extended setback, but I will not count on it. I just have a very bad feeling about H/9. Usually, the ERA and FIP have a tendency to somewhat mirror each other, but in 2016 the divide is interesting with an ERA at 4.51 and FIP at 3.35.

The metrics can give you information about what is happening, but the correction is the responsibility of Price and the coaching staff and quite possibly this may be a situation where this is just a career trend. The best of Price may well have ended in 2015.

Why so angry?

Yes – I am angry. That anger is the result of a disappointment since I realize a Price of 2015 would mean no dismal performances against a nondescript Twins team or a late game home run in San Francisco to a .200 hitter. I am not angry at Price the person, but Price the performer. I doubt even the most devoted Price sycophants would say this has not been what was expected.

A Price of 2015 would mean no putting the Red Sox behind and hoping the bats catch us up. The standings would certainly be a bit more enjoyable and one would expect that the current 9-7 record by Price would be shaved by three or four losses.

I have also come to realize what I said in my opening in that “time’s up.” What you see is what you will get for the remainder of 2016 and that is a pitcher who is probably your number three starter. Steven Wright has assumed the role of “Ace” and has certainly done what is expected with efforts that have saved the season and the staff.

Price will carry a negative connotation thanks to his contract and that cannot be helped since that is the way most of us think. Simply put, he has not earned his money, but if he was being paid in the neighborhood of Rick Porcello, few – including myself – would care. “Overpaid” is part and parcel when discussing contracts that have not lived up to expectations.

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So for 2016 I don’t hold out for some miraculous resurrection of the “Old” Price but will have to accept the “New” Price for what he is – a fairly reliable mid-rotation starter and certainly no Clay Buchholz. That is what we have and will continue to have for 2016, but then comes 2017 and we may all witness the “Old” Price. If not, then so be it.

Sources: FanGraphs/Baseball-Reference