Good Bet Sox Win Game 1 in ALCS

Cardinals vs. Red Sox in the 2013 World Series; so says the calculating “smart money boyz”–the bookmakers, money takers, and profit prophets–in Lost Wages, Nevada.

pete-rose-baseball2Odds to win the 2013 World Series

St. Louis Cardinals   9/4
Boston Red Sox 12/5
Detroit Tigers 11/4
Los Angeles Dodgers   3/1

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/baseball-futures.jsp

The good news is that the Sox are expected to prevail against the Tigers 42% to 36%; the bad news is that the Cardinals, they say, will beat the Sox in the World Series, 44% to 42%.

Rounding it off, it seems to forecast the Sox will beat the Tigers in 6 games and celebrate their AL Championship at Fenway and the Cards will need to go to the 7th game to win and collect their trophy in Boston.

Game 1: Sox/Tigers:

Detroit Tigers      Anibal Sanchez (R)     +1½ (-160)
Boston Red Sox   Jon Lester (L)      -1½ (+140)

 

The Bovada Boyz like the Sox in game One and, if you bet on the Sox, you will need to start the game with this score: Tigers 1.5, Sox 0.

Let’s use an example of the Tigers are playing the Red Sox.

On the regular money line we may see odds like:

Tigers -160
Boston Red Sox +140

This means that Red Sox bettors are asked to risk $140 to win $100, while Tigers’ bettors will risk $100 to win $160.

But when betting with the run line, we would expect to see the same game looking closer to:

Tigers                +1.5 -160
Boston Red Sox -1.5 +140

Now, those people betting on the Tigers are risking more money than they will win, in this case $160 to win $100, but they are receiving a bonus of 1.5 runs. Even if the Tigers lose by one run, those betting Detroit on the run line will win their bet because of the 1.5 runs gap.

HINT: “Smart bettors and professional gamblers will seldom give odds greater than -140 when betting on baseball and always look for a reason to bet the underdog. If you bet nothing but underdogs you can win less than half of your bets and still come out ahead in the long run.”

[Baseball Betting - How to Bet on Baseball, By Allen Moody http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/baseballbetting/a/baseball.htm]

If the Bovada Boyz are correct, the Red Sox will win Game One by 1.5 runs, which, if you are betting on the Sox means that your team needs to win by 2 runs for you to win money.

Let’s calculate a prediction for Game One.

SANCHEZ has pitched against 4 Red Sox batters:

Last 5 years vs. BOS hitters

BOS Hitters

AVG

AB

HR

RBI

 

       
                      Shane Victorino .237 38 1   2         Stephen Drew .333 15 0 3  
                      David Ross .125 8 1   2         Jonny Gomes .250 4 0 0

What can we glean?

  • In 38 ABs Victorino bats a paltry .237, but one of his hits was a HR, 2 RBIs.
  • In 15 ABs Drew is at .333 and has 3 RBIs.
  • In 8 ABs Ross bats a paltry .125, but one of his hits was a HR, 2 RBIs.
  • In 38 ABs Victorino bats a paltry .237, but one of his hits was a HR, 2 RBIs.
  • In 4 ABs Gomes is .250, no HRs or RBIs.

LESTER has pitched against 8 Detroit batters:

Last 5 years vs. DET hitters

DET Hitters

AVG

AB

HR

RBI

Alex Avila .500 6 0 1
Miguel Cabrera .636 11 0 0
Prince Fielder .333 9 0 1
Torii Hunter .500 16 0 0
Austin Jackson .200 10 0 0
Victor Martinez .600 5 0 2
Brayan Pena .364 11 0 3
Jhonny Peralta .235 17 2 3
  • Miggy, The Prince, and Hunter do very well against Lester in BA, but no HRs.
  • Peralta bats just .235, but has 2 HRs and 3 RBIs. [high SLG %]
  • V-Mart bats .600, 0 HRs, 2 RBIs.

Lester has a career MLB ERA of 3.75, WHIP 1.30; Sanchez is 3.55, 1.31.

This makes Sanchez .20 runs [1/5th run] better than Lester in the largest sample.

Recent starts:

Sanchez 5-1, 2.56, K-W: 71-17, 63.1 innings.

Lester     5-2, 2.19, K-W: 52-20, 70 innings.

2013 POSTSEASON STATS SUMMARY

Sanchez           0-1       10.38   4.1 innings

Lester              1-0          2.35     7.2 innings

LISTEN:  Sanchez has a career K-W stat: 1,237 to 497, which is excellent and way above the 2/1 minimum expected of a MLB pitcher; but, in his last 10 starts he has greatly improved on that ratio: 71/17.

He should be lights-out against a free-swinging batting order of power hitters, but he should not have this kind of ratio against the Red Sox “grinders,” who are patient at the plate and less likely to strike out.  Also, “grinders” will run up fuller counts with each at bat and, thus, the pitcher’s total count to get him out of the game sooner.  This can force the other team to go to their “middle relievers,” who are not as talented as the guys who pitch in the 7-8-9 inning slots.

Sanchez led the AL in ERA during the regular season 2.57 and was 15-8, 202 strikeouts,182 innings, but lost Game 3 ALDS to the A’s in Detroit.

CONCLUSION:

Sox win by 2 runs.

No HRs in the game.

Scoreless pitching duel for at least 5 innings, but Lester goes 7 innings.

Victorino hits a double that is crucial to the outcome.

Farrell uses his speed advantage [pinch-runner Berry] and a SAC bunt to win.

“You talk about taking the extra base. You’re talking about leadoff walks — not trying to hit a leadoff homer. Just passing the torch and picking each other up.”

Gomes may win it with a SAC fly late in the game.

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Topics: Betting, Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Odds, Prediction

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