Dodgers win trade rights to Gonzalez AND Beckett…48 hour deadline to make a deal
By Earl Nash
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“The Los Angeles Dodgers, continuing their aggressive pursuit of expensive stars, were awarded a waiver claim on Boston Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez on Friday, according to a major league source. The teams now have 48 hours to work out a trade, but that is not the Red Sox’s only option.”
Josh Beckett has been claimed off of waivers by the LA Dodgers, reports Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com via Twitter.
[http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/adrian-gonzalez-los-angeles-boston-red-sox-waiver-claim-082412]
Whoa! 48 hours! We’d better draft a trade for Chary Cherington and fax it to Fenway ASAP.
[For excellent summary of trade by my colleague, Derek Stykalo, go here: https://bosoxinjection.com/2012/08/23/fact-or-fiction-dodgers-could-pursue-adrian-gonzalez/]
Some of the names bandied about include: Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett. We will agree with Mr. Stykalo and not expect the Dodgers to take on Crawford with his iffy injury history and TJ surgery.
Also, while the Dodgers may be more interested in Lester than Beckett, the Sox will not sell Lester on the cheap, but hope he will return to his form in 2013.
Other assumptions:
Sox will want a 1b back in the deal.
Sox will want an ace; either a veteran or “ready for prime time” prospect.
Sox will be seeking pitchers more than position players.
Dodgers want Gonzo bad enough to take Beckett in the deal.
Xander Bogaerts will be off the table, but all other prospects are available, as well as Iglesias and Ciriaco.
Gonzalez will earn $21MM per season through 2016 and obtain a raise to $21.5MM for 2017-18.
Beckett is due 15,750,000 in 2013 and 2014; total commitment: $31,500,000.
So, let’s take it one step at a time; first:
DODGERS GET: Gonzalez [1b] and Beckett [#4 SP]
RED SOX GET: Looney [1b] and
NOTES:
Red Sox will insist that LA take Beckett.
Looney is 3rd-Year Arb Eligible, Earliest Free Agent: 2013 and will likely get around $6 million for a single year. If he performs well in 2013, he may get a 2-3 year contract. [now, 28 yrs. old]
STEP #2
DODGERS GET: Gonzalez [1b] and Beckett [#4 SP]
RED SOX GET: Loney [1b] and Allen Webster [RHP] and Chris Reed [LHP]
Allen Webster
Rank: 2
Chattanooga Lookouts (AA)
ETA: 2013
Position: RHP
Age: 22, DOB: 02/10/1990
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6′ 3″, Weight: 185
Drafted: 2008, 18th (547)
Webster elicits a ton of ground balls with a heavy, sinking fastball that runs into the mid-90s. Both his breaking ball and his changeup have the chance to be above average. He has decent command of all three pitches, especially considering his age, and his pitchability will only improve as he matures. The Dodgers have other righties in the system with more pure arm strength, but Webster could be the safest bet, after Zach Lee, to be a big league starter. He’s not far from contributing in Los Angeles, with a ceiling of being a No. 2 starter.
Other Lists: 100 Prospects (#65)
[http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/]
Chris Reed
Rank: 4
Status: Disabled 7-Day
ETA: 2013
Position: LHP
Age: 22, DOB: 05/20/1990
Bats: L, Throws: L
Height: 6′ 4″, Weight: 195
Drafted: 2011, 1st (16)
Reed flew under the radar for a while as Stanford’s closer, but his plus fastball started getting noticed, and the Dodgers nabbed him in the middle of the first round. Although he relieved in college, the Dodgers, like many teams, think Reed can start. That’s because he has a very good three-pitch mix that he commands well. He can get his fastball up to 96 mph out of the bullpen with good arm-side run. His power slider gives him enough to excel in relief, but he also has a changeup that could be a future plus pitch as well. With fairly good command, it remains to be seen how he’ll do in a starting role, though the early returns were positive in 2012. After posting a 3.09 ERA in seven starts at Rancho Cucamonga, Reed was bumped up to the Double-A Lookouts in early June.
[http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/]
NOTES:
Sox want pitchers who project into their roster in 2013.
Dodgers refused to trade #1 prospect Zach Lee [RHP] to Cubs and others; Lee is projected for 2014.
Dodgers may prefer to send #5 prospect Angel Sanchez [RHP] and Christ Withrow [RHP]
Angel Sanchez
Rank: 5
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (A+)
ETA: 2013
Position: RHP
Age: 22, DOB: 11/28/1989
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6′ 3″, Weight: 177
Signed: July 12, 2010
Sanchez made his professional, and U.S., debut in 2011 with full-season Great Lakes and hit the ground running, but found tougher times in the hitter-friendly Cal League in 2012. He has a very good three-pitch mix with a fastball he can get up to 95 mph that has good command and life. His changeup is a plus pitch and his curve is at least average now. At 6-foot-3, he’s got good size and plenty of room to fill out. Although he is just starting out, his feel for pitching could help him move more quickly, eventually establishing himself as a middle-of-the-rotation type in the big leagues.
[http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/]
Rank: 6
Status: Disabled 7-Day
ETA: 2013
Position: RHP
Age: 23, DOB: 04/01/1989
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6′ 4″, Weight: 220
Drafted: 2007, 1st (20)
Withrow’s pure stuff and arm strength are still as exciting as when he first came out of the Texas high school ranks in 2007. He has a plus fastball and will show a plus curve. His changeup is still a work in progress, though it has improved. He made strides in 2011 but still struggled with his command. If he can throw strikes more consistently, he still has the stuff and is young enough to develop into a Major League starter. If not, he does have a power arm that would work out of a bullpen. His 2012 season was hindered by injuries. His debut was delayed by an abdominal injury, and he landed on the DL again with a strained lower back at the beginning of June. He returned to action on June 28, pitching solely in relief after beginning the season as a starter.
[http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/]
NOTE:
Since both Sanchez and Withrow both project into the 2013 season, the Sox may take one or both, since the difference in a rankings is slight and frequently a few slots off.
STEP #3
DODGERS GET: Gonzalez [1b] and Beckett [#4 SP] and Pedro Ciriaco [SS]
RED SOX GET: Loney [1b] and Allen Webster [RHP] and Chris Reed [LHP]
NOTES:
To get the Dodgers #2 and #4 prospects, LA will want Ciriaco.
Sox may try to substitute Iglesias for Ciriaco.
Dodgers want a 3b and noticed Ciriaco can play 3b and SS.
Dodgers are also seeking a 2b; may see Iglesias as a SS/2b.
Dodgers would like an offensive (speedy) OF.
Sox #10 prospect, Garin Cecchini, 3b, bats left and may be in the conversation.
Dodgers will ask about Jackie Bradley [#5]; Sox will offer Brandon Jacobs [#7].
Since multi-player Super-Size deals are rare, as they are so complicated, the most likely scenarios are these:
DODGERS GET: Gonzalez [1b] and Beckett [#4 SP] and Pedro Ciriaco [SS]
RED SOX GET: Loney [1b] and Allen Webster [RHP] and Chris Reed [LHP]
OR
DODGERS GET: Gonzalez [1b] and Beckett [#4 SP] and Brandon Jacobs, OF, [#7]
RED SOX GET: Loney [1b] and Chris Reed [RHP] and Chris Withrow [RHP]
In any deal, we would assume the given players would be:
DODGERS GET: Gonzalez [1b] and Beckett [#4 SP]
RED SOX GET: Loney [1b] and SP and SP, both ready for 2013
A third player to LA might be: Ciriaco, Iglesias, Jacobs, or Brentz
A fourth player to the Sox might be a lower level pitching prospect, like [#14] Josh Wall [RHP] who is MLB ready and a potential set-up guy, or even a closer.
Josh Wall
Rank: 14
Albuquerque Isotopes (AAA)
ETA: 2013
Position: RHP
Age: 25, DOB: 01/21/1987
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6′ 6″, Weight: 220
Drafted: 2005, 2nd (74)
It looks like Wall had to take a step back in order to take two steps forward. After two years of floundering in the California League, the big right-hander went back down to the Midwest League in 2010 and somewhat righted the ship. In 2011, he was moved to the bullpen and jumped up two levels, putting up a solid season in relief in Double-A. He was terrific in the Arizona Fall League and was added to the 40-man roster as a result. In shorter stints, his mid-90s fastball and slider can play up, and he’s looking at a career as a setup man or perhaps even a closer – the role he served for Triple-A Albuquerque in 2012. Wall was called up to the Majors for the first time on July 14, making one appearance before returning to the Isotopes.
[http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/]
Or maybe the Dodgers send RHP Juan Rodriguez back to Boston; the Red Sox traded him as part of the three-team deal that sent Trayvon Robinson to Seattle and Erik Bedard to Boston.
While it is difficult to fill in the blanks and name names in any trade, it seems clear that the Adrian Gonzalez [and his big contract] would go to LA and Loney [contract year] would come to Boston. Also, it is fair to assume that two or three Top Ten pitching prospects, who project to be ready for MLB in 2013, will be heading to Fenway.
Beyond that foundation you can throw darts at the two teams’ prospect rosters to fill in the blanks.
A successful deal for the Red Sox would unload two major salaries and bring young, talented, MLB-ready arms to the Sox rotation; ideally, one would become the staff ace.
If the Sox offered arbitration to Loney and he got about $6 Million for 2013 they would realize a savings of 30,750,000 in 2013 and 2014. If Loney goes untendered for 2013 [unlikely] the total would be $36,750,000 in 2013 and 2014.
With Beckett off the books in 2015, the Sox would save money on Gonzalez: $21MM for 2015-16 and $21.5MM for 2017-18.
That is the kind of serious money that would allow the Red Sox to pursue a top-tier ace to put ahead of Lester, Buchholz, former Dodger arm and former Dodger arm. We must mention that Matt Barnes**, Sox #4 prospect will also be in the rotation mix in 2013.
Red Sox 2013 rotation:
- ACE [Greinke?}
- Jon Lester [LHP]
- Clay Buccholz [RHP]
- Chris Reed [LHP]
- Allen Webster [RHP]
Cranking up the Canon 881-X Laser Color World-Scan fax machine…firing up the “mojo wire.”
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 **Matt Barnes
Rank: 4
Salem Red Sox (A+)
ETA: 2014
Position: RHP
Age: 22, DOB: 06/17/1990
Bats: R, Throws: R
Height: 6′ 4″, Weight: 205
Drafted: 2011, 1st (19)
The UConn righty dropped a bit on Draft day in 2011, and the Red Sox were very happy he was still there at No. 19. The big right-hander has everything you want in a future frontline starter. His fastball can get up to around 96 mph and he maintains his velocity deep into his starts. His curve has the chance to be a plus pitch and his changeup is more than serviceable. His command should be excellent in the future and it may not take him all that long to be ready for Boston.