Shifting The Roles Of Bailey And Melancon
By Conor Duffy
When Andrew Bailey was acquired from the Oakland Athletics last December, the general belief was that he would become the Red Sox closer and Mark Melancon (also acquired this winter) would slide to the role of setup man. This would form a very strong back end of the bullpen after Jonathan Papelbon signed with the Phillies this offseason and Daniel Bard plans to move to the rotation. However, one idea that I think the Red Sox should look into is Melancon closing while Bailey sets up. Now, the first thing to pop into most readers minds will probably be, “But I thought Bailey was better!” Well, that’s the quirk that I’m looking for. Over the past couple of years, there have been many combinations with a great closer and an even better setup man. A few of those have been Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard, Mariano Rivera and David Robertson, Heath Bell and Mike Adams, and Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge. The reasoning behind this is to put your best reliever in the setup man role because often times, the setup man will experience more difficult situations. Often times, the closer will start an inning with a clean slate, while a setup man may have to tough it out through sticky situations involving inherited runners and such.
Last season, Melancon and Bailey each closed for their respective teams, showing that they can definitely handle it. Melancon was excellent for the lowly Astros, putting together a 2.78 ERA and saving 20 of 25 opportunities. Bailey missed some time due to injuries but when healthy was also quite good, putting together a 3.24 ERA and saving 24 of 26 opportunities. Melancon has all the tools to become a very good closer for the Red Sox– he struck out 7.99 per nine innings in 2011 and walked 3.15, good for a 2.54 K/BB ratio. He throws a fastball in the mid-to-low 90’s, he averaged 92.5 mph in 2011, not overpowering by any means. However, he changed that speed with a cutter which averages 82.7 mph and a change which he throws at 84.2 mph. Bailey throws a bit harder with an average of 93.4 mph on his fastball– however, Bailey relies on his fastball over 75% of the time. However, Bailey showed the ability to dominate hitters in 2011– putting up a 8.86 K/9 and 2.59 BB/9, for a very strong ratio of 3.42– well above Melancon’s. In my mind, that low walk rate shows that he’d be quite good at working out of jams– he put up a solid 67% strand rate.
Bobby Valentine will definitely have an opportunity to play with the back end of his bullpen (and the rest for that matter). If Bard and Aceves succeed as starters, then Bailey and Melancon will definitely have to carry a load out of the bullpen. I think that the two are certainly up for it, each had strong seasons in 2011 and Bailey is a bona fide closer beyond that, winning Rookie of the Year honors in 2009. Both Bailey and Melancon will be 26 on Opening Day and with three and four more years before free agency respectively, they will form a strong back of the bullpen for years to come. I’d like to see the Red Sox try this configuration but even if they don’t, there shouldn’t be a whole lot of scoring in the eighth and ninth innings for the Red Sox’ opponents.
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