2012: “Year of the Youk Movement” Can Will whip fatal batting flaw?
By Earl Nash
Although it cannot be announced publicly, inside the Red Sox organization it is assumed that this will be the “Year of the Youk Movement;” in the waning days of this season, the Red Sox will trade the “Walking Greek” to a contending team. But, Will Middlebrooks ready to take his place?
This year ends Youk’s contract [the team has a $13 million option for 2013); he is less a defender and more of a DH as his career arc moves towards the bottom-right corner of the chart. If Sox Top Prospect Will Middlebrooks can overcome a potentially fatal flaw in his hitting, he could play his first game at Fenway before his 24th birthday on September 9th.
“He has the makings of the prototypical third baseman, with solid defense, a strong arm and more than enough bat for the hot corner.” [http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/]
"2011 Combined Stats: .285, 26(2B), 1(3B), 23HR, 94RBI, 20SB"
Looking for a familiar MLB 3b for a comparison, we turn to Baseball Cube:
Middlebrooks: Speed 55 Contact 16 Patience 26 Batting 69 Power 80
Rolen: Speed 51 Contact 55 Patience 67 Batting 66 Power 73
Baseball Reference lists Rolen’s 2012 162-game projection:
BA .282/OBP .366/SLG .494 /OPS .860
[http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml]
Middlebrooks power is rated slightly above Rolen, but his contact and patience numbers suggest that his batting average might be lower. A comparison of Rolen’s 162-game from BaseballReference and one that we project, based on Middlebrooks scouting reports:
Rolen: BA .282/OBP .366/SLG .494 [Baseball Reference]
Middlebrooks: BA .270/OBP .360/SLG .505 [Bosox Injection]
Fangraphs offers a much lower rating on offense for the 6’ 4” 200lb third baseman:
"Middlebrooks: BA .270/OBP .360/SLG .505 [Bosox Injection]Middlebrooks: BA .250/OBP .300/SLG .429 [Fangraphs]"
Fangraphs ranked Middlebrooks at 78 on their Top 100 Prospects.
“Scouting Notes: Projected to be more of a doubles hitter than a big bopper, but does have useful home run power potential. Middlebrooks has the defensive tools necessary to stay at the hot corner, which is big because his value won’t translate well to other positions…He doesn’t have an elite ceiling, but as a third baseman succeeding in the upper minors, his floor is relatively high at a shallow offensive position.”
Our favorite prospects website, Seedlings to Stars, also doubts that Middlebrooks can cut down on his strike outs:
“Will Middlebrooks, 3B. Yes, I know this is an unconventional ranking. Middlebrooks is kind of like the anti-Couch–he excites scouts, and he does everything well except control the strike zone. He has power and a good glove at third, but his approach (113/24 K/BB) is so bad that I have trouble seeing him as much more than a Kevin Kouzmanoff sort of player, or Jeff Francoeur with infield actions. Grade: C+.” [Nathaniel Stoltz, http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/01/13/s2s-2012-team-prospect-lists-boston-red-sox/]
This is the reason why the Sox want their future 3b to spend another year in AAA to work on his K-Zone command, which has resulted in an alarmingly high K to low W rate, which regressed to 0.17 [nearly 6 Ks per W] when he moved up to AAA
How much he can improve his patience to work the counts deeper to improve his contact rate will determine if he is a .250 or .270 hitter; whether he compares better to Chipper Jones, 51/80 W-K, or Mark Reynolds, 75/196 W-K. The Sox would settle for an Evan Longoria clone; low BA .244, but high power, 31/99, but Middlebrooks would need to match Longoria’s 80/93 W-K stats.
“Reynolds is easily the worst strikeout hitter in history. He’s on pace to lead the league in strikeouts for the fourth straight year. He set the record for the most amount of strikeouts in a season with 223 in 2009, and every 162 games, Reynolds strikes out an average of 217 times.
But here’s the most alarming stat, Mark Reynolds strikes out once every 2.6 at-bats, historically bad. Mark Reynolds is the worst strikeout hitter in the history of baseball.” [http://bleacherreport.com/articles/589516-adam-dunn-and-the-20-worst-strikeout-hitters-of-all-time/page/21]
Middlebrooks Ks every 3.6 ABs with a nearly 1-6 W-K ratio and must dramatically improve to equal Youkilis 68/100 W-K; granted, Youkilis was dubbed “The Walking Greek” for his renowned K-zone judgment, but, at his current 1-6 pace, Middlebrooks would rack up 29/139 W-K stats and one walk for every 4+ strikeouts will not cut it in MLB. [Even the notorious strikeout artist, Dave Kingman had a 1-3 W-K ratio over his 16-year career: 608/1816.]
This summer the Red Sox will be carefully monitoring the Pawsox stats to see if the heir apparent to The Yook is improving his K-zone judgment and bringing his 1 to 6 W-K ration way down to 1 in 3, or better. If Middlebrooks can take control of the K-zone, he will become a Fenway fixture at the hot corner for decades; if not, he may top out as a AAA third baseman.
The Pawsox have a new hitting coach, replacing Chili Davis, who went to Oakland. Perry was not resigned by the A’s and the Sox took him back; he previously spending four seasons in the Boston organization as a minor league hitting coach with Single-A Michigan (1997) and Pawtucket (1998 and 2010), and was the club’s minor league hitting coordinator in 1999.
Can Perry dramatically improve Middlebrook’s “batting eye,” his strike zone discipline?
Can he cut Will’s W-K ration by 50% in just one season?
If he can, Middlebrooks will be ready to take over the Red Sox Hot Corner in 2013.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
For all the latest news and analysis from BoSox Injection, follow us on Twitter, Facebook, or with our RSS feed.