In less than two weeks the Red Sox pitchers and catchers will report to camp in Fort Myers, Florida. There will be many new faces at the table but one that isn’t likely to be there is Roy Oswalt. The crafty veteran still needs a place to play for the upcoming season and while he’s had plenty of interest, he’s being picky and finite as to whom he signs with.
Lately we heard that the Red Sox were still interested in Oswalt, but there was no real traction to the conversations. For Bobby Valentine that’s just fine, but for some Sox fans the sense to sign Oswalt is nearing desperation. So it’s worth discussing, do the Red Sox really need Roy Oswalt for this season?
Last season the Sox had a whopping ten different pitchers start a game. That list includes Erik Bedard, Dice-K, Andrew Miller, Alfredo Aceves and Kyle Weiland along with the usual suspects. All ten starters combined to cover 941 innings in games started. This does not include the above names used out of the bullpen or their innings as a reliever.
We’ve looked at the Sox top two pitchers and what their projections look like for 2012. Both Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are projected to once again pitch around the 200 inning mark, taking a tremendous amount of the workload between the two.
Clay Buchholz is expected to be 100% healthy in Spring Training after a frustrating 2011 season that saw him battle nagging injury issues on multiple occasions. As expected, his projections are to work 160 innings, which is right in line with where we had him. That would double his workload from a year ago and still not over work his arm. In 2010 he threw in over 170 innings and went 17-7 so 160 innings is well within the realm of reason and expectation. It would also help absorb some innings.
Last year John Lackey and Tim Wakefield combined to pitch in over 300 innings. It’s highly doubtful that Wakefield will return this season so who’s going to pick up the slack? Buchholz, would help to take some of that as would Daniel Bard.
As mentioned last week, Bard will be on an innings watch, providing he sticks in the rotation. 150 innings would likely be his limit, but even that would help chew into the hole left by Wake and Lackey.
Thus far we have four starters pegged for the rotation with roughly 500 innings being covered between the four of them. The fifth starter, which is yet to be determined, will likely top out at 140 innings, especially if it’s Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva or Vicente Padilla. Given their rehab assignments that took most of last season, they won’t be relied upon to deliver 200 innings.
So now we’re up to 650 innings. There are still some valuable innings that need to be scooped up somewhere to get to the average of 900 innings for the five starters (5 starters at roughly 30 starts each, averaging 6 innings per start). This is an average and just a benchmark for this post.
Alfredo Aceves is best suited for the bullpen but could see some spot starts early in the year to help reserve some arms for later in the year. Let’s say he makes five starts and takes 30 innings. Who’s going to take the other 200 innings? Chances are, a guy like Cook or Silva will also be used as spot starters throughout the year, much like Andrew Miller and Tim Wakefield were last year. Although Wakefield ended up becoming more a full time starter in June.
This begs the question. Is Roy Oswalt the guy to come in and pitch in 180-200 innings? Is he worth spending $8-10 million for one year to alleviate some of the work load from some other capable arms such as Silva, Cook or Padilla? Even Aceves could be the fifth starter after Spring Training.
Simple answer is likely no, the Sox don’t need him. But when you look at his past, that answer may change. Last year Oswalt struggled to stay healthy for the course of the season, limiting him to just 139 innings. But the previous seven seasons, he worked in over 200 innings in six of those years, and still threw in 180 innings in that one off year. Sounds like he could be of some value to a Sox staff that needs a starter to gobble up some work.
The argument could be made that his arm is tired from the heavy workload over his career. But last year it wasn’t his arm that forced him to the sidelines, it was his back. Something that doesn’t appear to be of concern to the Red Sox. His numbers were higher than usual, but if he’s out there pitching hurt, it does have an impact on how he throws the ball.
It’s a one-year gamble with Oswalt, so as this saga continues to drag on, more and more teams are falling out of the running because they simply don’t need another starter. The Red Sox appear to need a guy like Oswalt, health risk and all. But the return on investment could be much greater than the $8 million it may cost to get him. Now all Cherington has to do is convince him to sign in Boston. That appears to be the hardest part.
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