2 AM at the “Free Agent Bar and Brazier” Will Ben get a season-long Harden, or just a minor Sergio?
By Earl Nash
Since Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt appear to be crossed off the Sox Supplemental Starters list, citizens of Red Sox Nation are now pensively pondering and wishfully wondering:
“Which starters still swim in the shallow, lukewarm bowl of “Free Agent Limbo Gumbo?”
Wonder no more:
Kyle Davies (28), Doug Davis (36), Jon Garland (32), Rich Harden (30), Edwin Jackson (28), Sergio Mitre (31), Ross Ohlendorf (29,) Roy Oswalt (34), Brad Penny (34), Javier Vazquez (35), Tim Wakefield (45), Brandon Webb (33), Chris Young (33).
As this list was put in useless alphabetical order by a retired librarian, let’s use the ENPR [Earl Nash Penknife-metric Rank] system to sort them:
"Javier Vazquez (35) [236]Edwin Jackson (28) [232]Roy Oswalt (34) [176]Brad Penny (34) [145]Tim Wakefield (45) [139]Jon Garland (32) [124]Rich Harden (30) [121]Ross Ohlendorf (29) [100]Chris Young (33) [100]Brandon Webb (33) [no score] *Arm rehab, possible Texas deal?Kyle Davies (28) [no score]*projected 4.50-5.00 ERADoug Davis (36) [no score] *projected 4.50-4.80 ERASergio Mitre (31) [no score] 2011: 5.1 innings, 11.81 ERA"
Incredible as it may seem, El Viejo Vazquez (35) ranks just ahead of Jackson and Oswalt and, while we could argue his exact value, his ENPR rank demands our attention. His last contract with the Marlins [2011] was for $7 million, but he may take less. The latest word on the street has him teetering toward retirement, but he has not filed any documents with MLB.
But, first, this major caveat: his big weakness: he has a terrible stretch move:
"“In his career Vazquez has a K/BB of 3.32 and is excellent when the bases are empty at 4.04. When a runner is on base though his K/BB fell to 2.53, which is good, but troublesome for a fly ball pitcher. The league average pitcher in 2010 had a K/BB of 2.51 with no runners on and fell to 1.84 with runners on base. That is a 37% drop for Vazquez and a 27% drop for everyone else. This led to a rate of runners left on base that was often lower than league average as he gave up more hits and base runners when in the stretch.”[Troy Patterson, http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/02/the-long-shot-option/]"
His career numbers confirm he has continued to pitch poorly from the stretch; nonetheless, Baseball Reference projects him to go 13-12, 4.22, WHIP 1.25, 3.32 K/W% in 216 IP in 2012.
">>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> MEMOTO: BEN FROM: Earl Call your new pitching coach, Bob McClure, while Manager Bob is at lunch with his patron “Lucky” Luccino, and ask whether he can cure El Viejo’s stretch motion problem. If he can, give the Ancient Marliner a call.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>"
(BTW: Red Sox blogger Troy Patterson makes the case at Fire Brand of the American League: [http://firebrandal.com/2012/02/02/the-long-shot-option/] )
We move down our very rank list to #4, Brad Penny, who is reportedly negotiating with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan’s Pacific League, who like his line: 11-11, 5.30, 1.56 .306 BAA. An anonymous person floated that Penny has attracted interest from two undisclosed [read: imaginary] major league teams. [probably his agent] But it’s uncertain whether he has received an offer from an MLB club. Penny spent last year in Detroit, posting an 11-11 record with a 5.30 ERA in 31 starts. He has an above-water career record of 119-99 over 12 seasons with the Marlins, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Cardinals and Tigers.
‘A Penny for your Sawx?‘ Not so mawch.
Wakefield, according to the Gossip Gallery, has become persona non grata at Fenway, since the knucklehead broke a cardinal rule of the game: he appeared to be more interested in his personal W’s record than the team’s record in an interview, yet there is a case to be made for his signing, which I will make in a later post; think: cheap, known quantity, knuckle ball.
Jon Garland would want $5 million for one year and his stats are mid-range above mediocre; Baseball Reference projects him:
13-12, 4.32, WHIP 1.38, 1.61 K/W% in 207 IP
13-12, 4.22, WHIP 1.25, 3.32 K/W% in 216 IP (*compared to Vasquez)
The Sox will accept the laurels for winning the AL East pennant, but, no garland, thank you.
Rich Harden, a ground ball pitcher, appears to be a bargain at $1.5 million for 2012, if his arm stays attached to his shoulder. Sox fans will recall the trading deadline last year: the Red Sox were ready to swap 1b prospect Lars Anderson to Oakland for Harden, as insurance for their “stretch run,” but the Red Sox medics concluded that his shoulder wouldn’t hold up over the remainder of the season, so the Sox grabbed Erik “My Bad” Bedard.
Despite his shoulder tear, Harden toughed it out and made 10 starts the final two months resulting in: (2-3) ERA (5.57), but a K/9 of 10+ with a weak Oakland lineup.
"Baseball Reference projects him:12-8, 3.76, WHIP 1.30, 2.25 K/W% in 191 IP13-12, 4.32, WHIP 1.38, 1.61 K/W% in 207 IP [*compared to Garland]13-12, 4.22, WHIP 1.25, 3.32 K/W% in 216 IP [*compared to Vasquez ]"
OK, then, what has Mother Goose learned from Dr. Seuss today?
"If the Sox jox dox check the “OK” box, Concluding, this time, that Rich really rox;Before many more tox on his Sox clox, Lest, as with Sveum, that other team nox, Ben should put fox Rich in his Sox box.And hope rival EpsteinHox in his sox."
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