Sox will get a top prospect for theft of Theo–But who? Let’s see…
By Earl Nash
Q: What will the Sox get from the Cubs in compensation for stealing GM Theo Epstein?
A: A Top Ten prospect.
For citizens of Red Sox Nation dreaming about a player from the current Cubs’ 40-man roster, say, Starlin Castro, or Matt Garza: WAKE UP! Those MLB players come with a contract in place that would put the Red Sox significantly over their imaginary Luxury Tax Target. And, don’t expect Epstein to agree to pay any part of the salary of any body he ships to Boston, even Alfonso “So-Sorry” Soriano.
The good news is that, although these thefts of GMs have not been a big deal in the past, Commissioner “Judge Buddy” Selig is morally offended that the Cubs stole the Sox GM, who was still under contract and is reportedly ready to make a point: steal a team’s GM and expect to pay a serious price.
Selig has received a list of players from the Cubs that they are willing to surrender to the Sox, so let’s take a look at the Top Ten Prospects in the Cubs’ organization:
OK, Anthony Rizzo is rated their #1 prospect and it would make for a “funny” story, if the Cubs offered him and the Sox “took him back,” after he was traded to San Diego and then traded to the Cubs. It is possible that, if Ben Cherington is convinced that Rizzo is the best value to be had, he takes him and trades him again. Nah!
Brett Jackson, Rank: 2, Cubs’ prospects, Drafted: 2009, 1st (31)
Iowa Cubs (AAA), ETA: 2012, Position: OF, Age: 23, Bats: L, Throws: R
OOOoooh…This would be a major coup for Ben, since the Cubs see Jackson in their starting OF for a long time. He could be the answer to the questionable RF combo at Fenway; his minor league stats in 115 games and 431 ABs are impressive:
"BA .274 [.297 at AAA]OBP .379, SLG. 490, OPS .86920 HRs, 58 RBIs, 84 Rs, 21 stolen bases"
Our own in-house Seedling Savant, Wally Fish at our sister-site S2S [Seedlings to Stars] tells us:
"“There is almost a consensus among sources that Jackson is the Cubs top prospect heading into 2012 and with good reason. While none of his tools are truly plus, they are all at least average to above-average tools and he plays a solid CF to boot. He has the potential to be a 20/20 guy in multiple seasons and it’s reasonable to envision that he will win a Gold Glove and make a few All-Star teams once he gets established in the majors. He reached Triple-A for the first time this past season and hit 0.297/.388/.551 with 25 XBH and 6 SB in 48 games. Jackson has hit reasonably well at every stop in his minor league career and his OBP has never been lower than 0.366. The one red flag is that he’s averaged more than a SO per game (320 SO / 296 G), but he has all the other tools to mask that plus the work ethic that leads me to believe we will see some improvement in that aspect of his game as he matures.”"
FANGRAPHS:
"“Jackson is one of the more high-end prospects on the cusp of the major leagues. Playing most of last season at 22, Jackson slashed .274/.379/.490 with 20 HRs and 21 SBs while splitting time fairly evenly between Double- and Triple-A. Ranked as Baseball America’s No. 38 prospect entering 2011, the 2009 first-rounder is not without flaws (24% career K), but he also continued to show he knows how to work the count (14% BB), and his all-around skill set — he’s considered average to slightly above-average across the board — started some whispers that the Cubs were going to call him up in September to get his feet wet.”"
Other Lists: Top 50 MLB Prospects (#29) | Top 10 MLB Outfield Prospects (#5)
Although Epstein will groan and moan about losing Jackson, he did trade for David DeJesus and has Marlon Byrd and Alfonso Soriano ahead of the rook.
Matt Szczur, Rank: 3, Cubs prospects, ETA: 2013
OF, Age: 22, Bats: R, Throws: R, Drafted: 2010, 5th (160)
Our own in-house Seedling Savant, Wally Fish at our sister-site S2S [Seedlings to Stars] has doubts:
"“Szczur is almost exactly a year younger than Jackson but unlike Brett, he’s nowhere close to being major league ready. His commitment to baseball and football at Villanova is the main reason he’s a little behind the curve but he’s already shown the ability to adapt and learn quickly. Szczur fared well by hitting 0.314/.366/.431 in 66 Midwest League (A) games before being promoted to Daytona (A+). The FSL proved to be a stiffer challenge for Matt and he slipped to hit 0.260/.283/.410 in 43 G. He did, however, recover to hit well in the FSL playoffs. Right now there is little debate that Szczur is an excellent athlete with off the charts makeup and plus-plus speed. However when you start to project what he can become, there is some disagreement. Some see an above-average major league regular while others see a 4th or 5th outfielder. Collegiate two-sport guys are always difficult to project because you never know how much their drive and athleticism will make up for lost development time.”"
MLB.com says:
"“He had a fantastic pro debut (.347/.414/.465) and after being named a Midwest League midseason All-Star in 2011, he participated in the Futures Game and moved up to the Florida State League. He’s got plus speed, which will work well on both sides of the ball, and he has the chance to hit for average and some power when all is said and done.”"
Other Lists: Top 10 Outfield Prospects (#9)
A bit of a stat downgrade from Jackson, but, he made the MLB Top Ten OF list at #9, Jackson finished #5; he maybe-might be the answer to the questionable RF combo; his minor league stats in 2011 were mediocre: BA .260.283.410, OBP .283, SLG .410, OBP .283; 109 games and 447 ABs: 10 HRs, 46 RBIs, 75 Rs, 24 stolen bases.
Other Lists: Top 10 MLB Outfield Prospects (#9)
The next two Cubs’ prospects listed on MLB.com are RHPs, who appear to be ready for MLB in 2012: Chris Carpernter and Trey McNutt.
But, before we go there, we need to mention another pitching prospect; a RHP who has caught the eye of our Seedling Savant, Wally Fish at our sister-site S2S [Seedlings to Stars]:
"“Starting Pitcher #1 – RHP Dillon Maples (19): For me Maples leads the pack of Cubs pitching prospects despite the fact he hasn’t made his professional debut. That’s not so much a testament to Maples – who might become a #2 starter – as it is a statement on the lack of impact arms in the system. To reach his ceiling he’s going to have to develop a third pitch to complement his already plus mid-90s heavy fastball and a power curveball. He has a rudimentary changeup but really didn’t need it as an amateur so it lags far behind his other offerings. As with most young pitchers he also needs to improve his command and smooth out some elements of his mechanics but he’s an excellent athlete and should be able to handle the necessary adjustments. The Cubs deserve a great deal of credit for getting Maples under contract – for a $2.5 million bonus – after drafting him in the 14th round. He was a 1st round talent who slid due to a very strong commitment to play both football and baseball at the University of North Carolina.”"
Chris Carpenter, Rank: 4 Cubs’ prospects, Mesa Solar Sox, ETA: 2012
RHP, Age: 26, Bats: R, Throws: R, Drafted: 2008, 3rd (97)
MLB.com says:
"“Carpenter had a solid 2010 season, largely in Double-A and getting a few Triple-A starts in. He created buzz in the Arizona Fall League pitching in a bullpen role, including hitting triple-digits in the Rising Stars game. He does have three pitches, though the changeup is a bit behind, and he struggles with command at times.” [http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/]"
FANGRAPHS:
"“His control has been inconsistent in pro ball…solid ground-ball rates (55% at double-A)…He has the potential to be a solid No. 3 starter but his health could push him to a bullpen role; his delivery continues to have effort to it.”"
Although he may hit 100 on the gun, his core stats are unimpressive:
ERA: 5.91 [Minors], 2.79 [MLB]; Combined: 72 Ks / 61 Ws; WHIP: 1.62 [Minors], 1.97 [MLB]
His MLB 9.2 innings line with the 2.79 ERA also showed 8Ks and 7Ws, .316 BA against, and he gave up 12 hits and a HR in the equivalent of about one game.
Trey McNutt, Rank: 5 Cubs prospects, Tennessee Smokies (AA), ETA: 2012
RHP, Age: 22, Bats: R, Throws: R, Drafted: 2009, 32nd (980)
Wally Fish at our sister-site S2S [Seedlings to Stars] tells us:
"“RHP Trey McNutt…has a plus fastball and a plus power curve. The need to develop a changeup and improve his command are two more similarities they share. Trey throws a little harder but Dillon is 3 years younger. McNutt also has similar #2 upside but is less likely to reach his ceiling. After a very strong 2010 season, he regressed quite a bit statistically and really struggled in his first extended time in Double-A. His H/9, BB/9 and SO/9 all went the wrong way as he lost velocity on his fastball, bite on his curve and his command as well. He dealt with some minor injuries – blisters and bruised ribs – during the season which surely contributed to his struggles, but we can’t dismiss the fact that the Southern League hitters also sent him a message. He gets a bit of mulligan for 2011 but there are reasons for concern here.”"
MLB.com says:
"“He pitched at three levels in 2010, finishing second in the system in both ERA and strikeouts. His plus fastball and power breaking ball could probably work now in a big league bullpen, but as his changeup improves, he looks more like a starter to most.” [http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/]"
Some core stats are better than Carpenters: ERA: 4.55; 65 Ks / 39 Ws; some are worse: WHIP: 1.67; BA against: .319.
Another name that has been mentioned is Cub’s 3b prospect, Josh Vitters. [SEE related post: https://bosoxinjection.com/2012/01/29/steamed-selig-will-select-significant-player-from-cubs-for-red-sox-compensation-for-epstein/]
Josh Vitters, Rank: 6 Cubs’ prospects, Mesa Solar Sox, ETA: 2013
Position: 3B, Age: 22, Bats: R, Throws: R, Drafted: 2007, 1st (3)
MLB.com says:
"“The No. 3 overall pick of the 2007 Draft hasn’t developed as hoped, but he’s still too young to give up on. Still thought of as a top third-base prospect, he’s got the great bat speed and raw power that made him an elite guy back in 2007. He doesn’t draw walks and hasn’t made adjustments, but the Cubs liked how he dealt with being pushed up to Double-A in 2010, and he spent the season back there in 2011, showed some progress and played in the Arizona Fall League for a second straight season.”"
He currently ranks #4 on the MLB Top 10 3rd Base Prospects list.
FANGRAPHS:
"“Since being drafted third overall in the 2007 draft, few prospects have developed in more disappointing fashion than Chicago Cubs third base prospect Josh Vitters. Once considered an elite player with baseball skills including 70 power and hit tools, Vitters has stumbled to a .277/.319/.439 triple slash line across five minor league seasons. Due to these struggles, Vitters’ status as a prospect has slipped as 2011 was the first where he failed to make the Baseball America top-100.However, 2011 also saw Vitters post his best numbers since the 2009 season in the Southern League at 21…Vitters looks like he could/should be a really good hitter. If a coach can finally get through to him with preaching patience and pitch selection, this former No. 1 pick could really explode. As it stands, he’s one of the more frustrating prospects in baseball.”"
2011 Fall League Stats: .360 (36 for 100) 6(2B), 4HR, 17RBI, 4SB. [http://topprospectalert.com/2011/11/20/2011-arizona-fall-league-top-35-postseason-prospect-rankings/]
Career stats here: http://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/40461
Although Vitters has good bat speed, his plate discipline [few walks] needs tuning and he continues to be a sucker for the low-outside curve ball. With Will Middlebrooks in line behind Yook for 3b, the Sox will likely pass on him, or take him and trade him.
The Cubs’ #7 through #10 prospects are more like “suspects” as MLB material, but you can make up your own mind here: [http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/]
But wait! We would be remiss, if we didn’t mention three other Cub rooks that our Wally Fish thinks Ben might consider as his compensation pick:
"“Catcher – Welington Castillo (24): The Cubs, as I mentioned in my overview above, are very thin at Catcher but they did spend their 6th, 15th and 16th round picks in the 2011 draft to help address the shortfall. Those guys are going to take some time to develop but that’s okay because Castillo is ready to contribute now. He’s a 0.270/.332/.507 hitter with 26 2B and 28 HR in 131 Triple-A games and he’s received brief callups each of the last two seasons. He’s slow (even for a catcher) and is overly aggressive at the plate but he has a plus arm, plus power and is solid defensively. He figures to open 2012 as the primary backup to Geovany Soto but could assume the role as the starter by the end of the season.Second base – Zeke DeVoss (21): Chicago’s 3rd round pick in the 2011 draft, DeVoss quickly made the team’s $500,000 investment in him look sound. He hit 0.311/.458/.386 with 14 SB in 38 games for Boise (A-) and finished with an impressive 28-32 SO-to-BB rate. He’s a switch hitter with excellent speed and great plate discipline making him an ideal candidate to hit lead-off. Most prospect sources haven’t warmed up to the idea the Zeke is legit, but I have a feeling they will be singing a different tune after the 2012 season.Third base – Jeimer Candelario (18): In 2011, Jeimer made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League and hit 0.337/.443/.478 with 16 2B, 5 HR, 50 BB and 42 SO in 72 games. Like DeVoss, he’s a switch hitter and showed excellent plate discipline. While stats don’t mean as much in the DSL, his performance – as a 17-year old – was impressive regardless of the league. Based on scouting reports, the plate discipline and ability to hit for average are for real. He already flashes some power and that aspect of his game should continue to develop as well. While his bat is very advanced for a 17-year old, the defense needs some work. He seems likely to move across the diamond as he gets older but his bat has the potential to carry him to the majors regardless of where he plays.”"
[SEE Wally’s full Cubs’ prospect report here: http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/01/15/s2s-2012-team-prospect-lists-chicago-cubs/]
With special weight given to Wally Fish and wrapping in our other sources, our own take is this:
If the Sox get 3b Jeimer Candelario (18) they could be hopeful.
If the Sox get 2b Zeke DeVoss (21) they should be satisfied
If the Sox get RHP Dillon Maples (19) they should be pleased.
If the Sox get OF Brett Jackson they should be thrilled that they have a legitimate RF, who could become a star.
"“The envelope, please, Bud…”“ZZZzzz…”“…Uh, Bud…Bud!”“ZZZzzz…”“BUD !”"
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