2012 Projections: Dustin Pedroia to Have MVP Type Year
We’ve all heard the saying: as Dustin Pedroia goes, so go the Red Sox. He’s the inexplicable leader of this ball club despite being the smallest player on the team and perhaps one of the biggest egos. But that’s what makes him tick, is the thought of someone else getting ahead of him. That fiery competition to have the game on his bat, only to deliver that walk-off hit. He yearns for it and he wants to be in that position to propel his team to victory. He’s proven it every year for five years since making his triumphant debut in 2007. Rookie of the Year, ’08 MVP, 3x All-Star, 2x Gold Glove Winner and most importantly, World Series Champion. The list is impressive for a five-year veteran, and he’s only 28 years old.
It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for the Woodsland, California native. The 2010 season was cruising along with another All-Star nomination, only to be sidelined for the second-half of the season thanks to fouling a ball off his foot. Surgery was inevitable along with screws being inserted into the bone that left many wondering if Pedey could ever play to his elite level again. He again proved all the doubters wrong by coming back with an impressive 2011. Putting up a line of .307/.384/.474 with 21 home runs and 91 RBI, good enough for a ninth place finish in the AL MVP voting. He was one of only a few who remained a productive at-bat during what was a painful September. And what doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger, which is why Pedroia is projected to have an even bigger year in 2012.
Let’s face it, for the Red Sox to have a chance to win the AL East this season, Dustin Pedroia needs to once again deliver the kind of offense and defense we’ve become accustom to seeing. Firmly entrenched in his number two spot in the batting lineup, it’s looking like another promising year for Pedroia; at least according to RotoChamp, courtesy of fangraphs.com.
His offensive line looks like this: .306/.389/.477 with 20 home runs and 103 RBI (a career high). It’s hard to say it’ll be a career year for Pedroia with his batting average hovering around his career mark. But a new record in RBI, a consistent 20 long balls and an impressive OBP and SLG, Pedroia would be considered an AL MVP candidate. Throw in a projected WAR rating of 7.0, one mark off of last season and this projection is pretty compelling.
When compared to his MVP season of 2008, these numbers are very similar. Again, his batting average was much higher in ’08 at .326 and his OBP was .376 while his slugging was .493. He hit 17 home runs and drove in 83 RBI and had a WAR rating of 6.8.
While a batting average of .306 could be a knock against a possible MVP season, it’s worth looking at this past year’s AL MVP candidates, Justin Verlander excluded.
Jacoby Ellsbury – .321/.376/.552. 32 HR, 105 RBI.
Jose Bautista – .302/.447/.608. 43 HR, 103 RBI.
Curtis Granderson – .262/.364/.552. 41 HR, 119 RBI.
Miguel Cabrera – .344/.448/.586. 30 HR, 105 RBI.
I realize it’s not worth a lick to start surmising at possibilities of MVP type seasons when Spring Training has even begun. All I’m saying is that if Pedroia can live up to these projections, his chance of taking home a second MVP award is going to increase significantly. That and the Red Sox chances of getting into the postseason for the first time in four-years is also going to improve greatly.
Projections are just that and some don’t hold a lot of merit to them. But one thing we do know is that #15 for the Red Sox is as a consistent player that you’ll find in the majors. Add in his tireless work ethic and upbeat attitude and it’s a safe bet to take a ride on these numbers. But go ahead, bet against him, the Muddy Chicken prefers it that way.
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