AL East Breakdown: Tampa Bay Rays

Until January, the Tampa Bay Rays had a pretty quiet off-season in terms of acquisitions, staying out of the spotlight. The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have been involved with some big players, while the Rays added a group of role players to replace some well-known names in Tampa, that is until they announced the signing of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez on the same day. They made a statement with those signings that they still feel they are a viable contender in the AL East and although the attention has been on the Yankees and Red Sox, they are primed and ready for a playoff run in 2011 as well. They did however lose a significant group of players via free agency and trade, so do they have a shot at competing with the rest of the AL East? Let’s explore their moves this off-season and see if they have what they need to be successful. (more after the jump)

When looking at the list of departures, it becomes clear that, similar to the Blue Jays, the Rays wanted to completely overhaul their pitching staff.  Of their 12 opening day pitchers in 2010, 5 are no longer with the club and 4 of the 7 bullpen arms have departed. On top of that, the Rays lost their opening day centerfielder, 4th outfielder, catcher, shortstop and DH. When you do the math, these moves leave just 12 of the 25 players on the 2010 opening day roster still with the club in 2011. Overhaul is a fair assessment in my book.

Let’s take a look at the key departures for the Rays and break down what it all means for 2011.

Select Departures
RF Rocco Baldelli
RHP Grant Balfour
RHP Joaquin Benoit
LHP Randy Choate
LF Carl Crawford
RF Brad Hawpe
RF Gabe Kapler
1B Carlos Pena
RHP Chad Qualls
RHP Rafael Soriano
RHP Dan Wheeler
DH Willy Aybar
RHP Lance Cormier
RHP Matt Garza
C Dioner Navarro
SS Jason Bartlett

Wow, where do I even begin. Let’s look at the pitching departures 1st, because the Rays will face a significant void in that area in 2011. As I mentioned above, the Rays lost 4 of the 7 opening day bullpen arms and Joaquin Benoit, who was not on the opening day roster, but was lights out for them last season. Benoit had a 1.34 era and allowed a total of 30 hits in 60.1 innings in 63 appearances. Losing one of the best closers in the AL in Rafael Soriano to the Yankees, of all teams, is probably the biggest challenge to overcome in the ‘pen for the Rays. Last season, he raked-up 45 saves (most in the AL) and had a staggering 1.73 era. The team also will be without the services of righties Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Lance Cormier and Chad Qualls and lefty Randy Choate in 2010, making people question their bullpen. The best of the bunch was Balfour, who had one of his strongest years in the bigs, posting a 2.28 era in 57 appearances.

Moving past the re-made bullpen, the move that benefited the Red Sox the most was the trade of Matt Garza to the Chicago Cubs along with OF Fernando Perez for RF Brandon Guyer, RHP Christopher Archer, C Robinson Chirinos, and LF Sam Fuld. The Rays received a haul of prospects in return, but lost a starting pitcher that tormented the Red Sox and the AL East for that matter. In 3 years with the Rays, Garza had a 34-31 record with a 3.83 era, but pitched his best 2 games against the Red Sox in the 2008 ALCS. He went 2-0 with a 1.38 era, allowing just 8 hits in 13 innings. Against the AL East, Garza is 23-15 with a 3.35 era in his career with 235 strikeouts in 56 games (54 starts). It will hurt the Rays to lose him most within the division, but also overall, because he was an extremely solid starter during his tenure in Tampa.

On the offensive side of the ball, the biggest departure was also one of the Red Sox biggest gains: Carl Crawford. He was a staple in the Rays outfield for 9 seasons, racking up 409 stolen bases and hitting at a .296 clip. His defensive ability will be missed in Tampa, because he robbed many hitters of sure-fire base-hits and played like a vacuum in center field (just ask Red Sox hitters). Brad Hawpe and former Red Sox players Rocco Baldelli and Gabe Kapler also leave voids on the roster for outfield spots, but the loss of Carlos Pena at 1st base will hurt the Rays lineup more significantly. Pena is not a high average guy (career .241 hitter), but his 144 home runs for the Rays since 2007 will be sorely missed. In the powerful AL East, teams need to have the ability to score in bunches, and a big home run hitter like Pena is extremely valuable, despite his poor .197 average in 2010.

The other departures from the Rays are less significant overall, but did play important roles in their time with the club. Willy Aybar was a solid utility guy with the Rays over the last 3 seasons, spending most of his time out of the DH spot last season, but seeing some time in the infield as well. Jason Bartlett hit .288 with the Rays during his 3-year stint with the team. He was a solid performer and was a favorite of Joe Maddon, but he wasn’t a flashy or overly impressive player. The final missing piece from 2010 is catcher Dioner Navarro. Navarro was pivotal to the Rays success in 2008, because he had a career year, hitting .295 with 7 home runs and 27 doubles in 120 games. This past season, and his entire career, has been filled with injuries, a danger for catchers, so he only saw action in 48 games, posting a sad .194 average.

Now that we have seen who will not be with the club in 2011, let’s see who the Rays acquired this off-season.

Select Acquisitions
1B Russ Cranzler
RHP Richard De Los Santos
LHP R.J. Swindle
RHP Andrew Leary
RHP Adam Russell
RHP Brandon Gomes
LHP Cesar Ramos
RHP Cole Figueroa
RHP Joel Peralta
RHP Kyle Farnsworth
RHP Dirk Hayhurst
2B Daniel Mayora
1B Casey Kotchman
DH Manny Ramirez
LF Johnny Damon

The 1st thing that stands out when comparing the departures and acquisitions of the Rays, is the disparity between the two. The departures list consisted of names familiar to most fans of AL East teams, including many multi-year Rays players, where as the acquisitions list, has about 4, maybe 5, familiar names for the average fan. With the exception of Kyle Farnsworth, the pitchers the Rays acquired are mostly young and inexperienced, creating a lot of uncertainty, but also a lot of promise. Joel Peralta is likely the reliever with the most experience of the bunch with 6 years under his belt. He could prove to be a pivotal piece in the success of their young pitchers. Besides Farnsworth and Peralta, the pitching acquisitions of Richard De Los Santos, R.J. Swindle, Andrew Leary, Adam Russell, Brandon Gomes, Cesar Ramos, Cole Figueroa, and Dirk Hayhurst have a combined 93 games of major league experience, 49 of those games belonging to Russell in his time with the Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres.

By far the biggest new addition splash came with the announcement of the joint signings of former Red Sox outfielders Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. Both now in their upper-30’s, the Rays are hoping for a psychological advantage when playing their AL East foes. They will use both guys in the outfield and as a DH, but at their age, there is a question about health and ability to produce at a high level. Damon has been consistently playing in 141+ games per season for the past 15 seasons, but at some point, that number has to catch up with the 37-year old. Manny on the other hand, has shown his age over the last few seasons, playing in 100, 104 and 90 games in 2008, 2009 and 2010 respectively, after playing in 120+ games 13 straight seasons. Their impact may be more on the mental side than the physical side, but either way, it brought the Rays back into the AL East conversation.

The Rays also acquired Casey Kotchman, a former Sox 1st baseman and 2 young infielders, 2B Daniel Mayora and 1B Russ Cranzler. Admittedly, my knowledge of the young guys is limited, but it appears they are longer-term, minor-league development guys that will not have an impact immediately in the majors. Kotchman is a solid veteran, neither impresses or wows anyone, but will fill a void on the roster if he makes the major-league club. The Rays are clearly hoping to get lucky with some of their young talent, looking to build their system for continued future success, at the slight expense of the current club.

Overall, the Rays are going to have a real tough time in the AL East with the losses on their pitching staff and the few key offensive departures they endured this winter. The signing of Damon and Ramirez is flashy, but not enough to make up for losing reliable, solid relievers in the ‘pen and in the rotation. You can never count out the Rays, because they are still a top 3 team in the division, but I would be shocked to see them win 95+ games without adding a player or two at the trade deadline. For the 1st time in several years, I can say with confidence, that the Red Sox and Yankees are the teams to beat in the division with the Rays sitting a bit behind in 3rd. As the Red Sox offense improved, and the Yankees offense remained steady, the digressing Rays pitching staff will be an Achilles’ heal all season.

In the same vein, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rays go out and trade a few of their prospects for a top player mid-season if they are in contention. The big question will be whether they are in contention come July and August. They play the Yankees and Red Sox 16 times before July 31st, including 11 straight games around the All-Star break (4 with New York, 3 with Boston, then 4 more with New York), which could be the make or break time and will likely determine their status at the deadline. For the Red Sox sake, a 2-team race in the AL East would be nice, but I get the feeling that would be too good to be true.

One of the key things not to overlook however, is the impact of players like Evan Longoria and David Price on the overall team. With stars like those guys, the Rays will always be in a conversation as one of the better teams in the league and like in 2008, the Rays have been known to overachieve in the past. The likelihood this happens again in 2011 is small, but that is why they play the games. Any given day and any given season can, and usually does, produce surprises. If the Rays were to contend for a title in 2011, it wouldn’t be a total shocker, but would certainly catch many by surprise, myself included.