Dice-K Concerns: 2010 Edition

When the Sox invested $100 million dollars in a young hot-shot pitcher over from Japan, fans were excited about the possibilities. Matsuzaka first year in America in 2007 was a decent one, posting a 15-12 record with a 4.90 era, but walked batters constantly and had high pitch counts, leading to only one complete game.  The media was quick to defend the Japanese hurler, saying that the more comfortable he gets with the league and in the country, his numbers would improve.

Then came year two, in which Matsuzaka’s era dropped to 2.90 for the year and he posted an impressive 18-3 record. It was promising improvement, but Matsuzaka was had even higher walk numbers (94), nearly 50 less strikeouts than 2007, and had an inability to go deep into ballgames due to high pitch counts. Matsuzaka still hadn’t looked like the $100 million dollar man they expected to see.

Then came 2009, a year that Theo and Matsuzaka would like to block out of their memory forever. Dice-K began the season pitching like a drunk little leaguer. Matsuzaka gave up 9 ER in his first 2 games of the year, pitching only 6.1 innings. After claiming he had a ‘dead arm’ and needed rest, Dice-K proceeded to bash the Sox training regiment to the Japanese media. After recinding his comment, Dice-K eventually returned to the rotation looking leaner and pitching well down the stretch.

Now to the heart of the matter. What will Dice-K bring to the table in 2010? The Sox management seemed pleased with the way he ended the 2009 season, but that was a relatively small sample size. The likelihood that Matsuzaka suddenly figures it all out and has an incredible 2010 is basically zero, but it can’t get worse than the way he began last season. With the addition of Lackey to the rotation, the pressure on Dice-K has been reduced, pushing him into the 4th or 5th rotation spot, putting him in a position to succeed.

If Dice-K can keep his pitch count down by reducing his walk totals, and in turn going deeper into ball games, the Red Sox will have a great end of the rotation guy. A realistic maximum number of innings for Dice-K  in 2010 is around 200, but the Sox need to be careful to give him rest when needed down the stretch. In his 4th year in the league, the adjustment to the training schedule can no longer be an excuse for his weak body. My prediction is a solid year for Dice-K, finishing with a 16-10 record and an era around 3.80, and if that happens, the Sox will have one of the best rotaations in baseball and have a great chance to return to the World Series once again.