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Analyzing the level of concern for five struggling Red Sox

By Daniel Fox

BOSTON, MA - MAY 5: Trevor Story #10 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after striking out during the seventh inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels on May 5, 2022 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - MAY 5: Trevor Story #10 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after striking out during the seventh inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels on May 5, 2022 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /
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TORONTO, ON – APRIL 28: Alex Verdugo #99 of the Boston Red Sox watches a foul ball in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on April 28, 2022 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON – APRIL 28: Alex Verdugo #99 of the Boston Red Sox watches a foul ball in the fourth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre on April 28, 2022 in Toronto, Canada. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) /

Red Sox left fielder Alex Verdugo

.212/.254/.331, 3 HR, 15 RBI, -0.5 WAR

It’s hard to believe that Alex Verdugo is even on this list. He got off to a torrid start this season, slashing .333/.400/.667 with three homers over his first ten games. Yet over the last 21 games, Verdugo has fallen off completely, slashing just .173/.198/.210 with no home runs. His has been particularly anemic versus left-handed pitching (6-for-27, one extra-base hit).

As Verdugo’s struggles have compounded, his approach has completely fallen apart. He’s walked just three times in that span and has increased his first strike swing percentage from 19% to 29%. He still makes contact at an elite rate, but because he can’t elevate the ball (5.5 degree average launch angle), he hasn’t been able to hit for power.

The biggest reason for Verdugo’s struggles, however, is bad luck. He ranks in the 77nd in the percentile in XBA and 85th in XSLG, and his batting metrics have remained fairly constant from last year. The biggest change has been his fortune on batted balls, as his BABIP has dropped from .327 to .220. At a certain point, Verdugo’s fortune is going to change, and if he can elevate the ball like he did in the beginning of the season, he should be just fine.

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