My conclusion
Knowing that I am definitely in the minority, I expect Martinez will reluctantly choose to stay in Boston and serve out the remaining three years of his deal.
A decade ago, it would have been a no-brainer for the Red Sox slugger to opt-out of his deal with multiple GM’s lined up to make him a better offer. But we live in a different world now, where analytics and the desire to develop younger, more inexpensive talent have become the gold standard in roster building.
Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion both signed nearly identical three-year, $60 million contracts with the Phillies and Indians respectively. Both teams seemed to have buyer’s remorse not long after inking those deals. Aside from these two players, there is no recent precedent of a player in his 30’s signing a massive deal. Let alone opting out of a deal to sign a bigger one.
Much like in the 2017 hot stove season, the market just isn’t there for Martinez. And now he’s two years older. The risk of his next contract being fewer years and much less money is far too great.
Opting out has all the potential to be a highly regrettable decision for JD, and possibly one of the biggest missteps of Scott Boras’ career. I reserve the right to be wrong. But if this ends up being the case, it will be intriguing to see how the saga plays out.