Red Sox starter Rick Porcello finishing his miserable season on positive note

Boston Red Sox right-hander Rick Porcello aims to salvage his value ahead of free agency with a pair of promising starts down the stretch.

Better late than never. This is undoubtedly the worst season of his career but Rick Porcello‘s last two outings for the Boston Red Sox have been a positive sign.

Porcello shut out the Tampa Bay Rays over six innings on Friday, marking the first time he’s lasted that deep into a game without allowing an earned run in over three months. He allowed only three hits without a walk and struck out six.

He wouldn’t earn the win since his bullpen blew it but that hardly matters. Cleveland’s win over the Phillies meant that the Red Sox would have been eliminated from postseason contention even if they had beaten the Rays. The takeaway from this night was Porcello’s performance as he desperately tries to establish some semblance of value before hitting the free agent market this winter.

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The Red Sox will have a hole in their rotation when this season ends yet they will probably let Porcello walk anyway. The 30-year old has been a disaster this season with a 5.56 ERA that ranks last in the majors among qualified starters. Boston’s roster could undergo serious changes once a new front office is installed and Porcello could be among the first casualties.

That doesn’t mean he can’t have value elsewhere. A strong finish to the season may prove that Porcello still has something left in the tank. It may convince another club that he’s figured out the issues that derailed him this year and that he’s primed for a bounce-back season. There are plenty of teams that could use a battle-tested veteran in their rotation.

It doesn’t hurt that his late-season success has come against playoff caliber opponents. The Rays enter the day holding the second Wild Card spot in the American League. In his previous start, Porcello held the Phillies to two runs over five innings to earn his 13th win. Philadelphia is five games out in the NL Wild Card race but they were firmly in the mix before dropping four of their last six, including two to the Red Sox.

Porcello has been a dumpster fire for most of the season but some of his best starts have inexplicably come against playoff contenders.

April 30 vs Oakland: 8 innings, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 8 K
May 17 vs Houston: 7 innings, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K
May 27 vs Cleveland: 6 2/3 innings, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB, 4 K
June 17 vs Minnesota: 7 innings, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K
July 25 vs New York: 6 innings, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K

That’s the type of production the Red Sox could have used from Porcello all season but he wasn’t able to stay consistent. He would toss one of those gems and follow it up by getting lit up for six runs in his next start.

These last two outings could be another temporary blip before he falls apart again but there are some positive signs to suggest he’s turned a corner. The key has been fastball control. Porcello has only walked one batter while striking out 12 in his last 11 innings. A stellar strikeout-to-walk ratio was the backbone of his MVP campaign in 2016.

Porcello has placed a greater emphasis on controlling the strike zone with his two-seam fastball in these last two appearances. The sinker was his bread and butter early in his career when he owned one of the league’s highest ground ball rates. Porcello changed his approach by pitching up in the zone more in an attempt to counter the launch angle movement, resulting in a career-low 37.7 GB%. By going back to the sinker more in his last two starts, Porcello has induced nearly as many ground ball outs (13) as fly outs (15).

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It’s a small sample but the approach seems to be working. It’s too late to help the Red Sox make the playoffs but if Porcello can finish this season strong, he can help himself on the free agent market by showing teams what he’s still capable of.

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