Boston Red Sox: Five biggest questions this offseason
The BoSox Injection staff collaborates on a Round Table discussion of the five biggest questions facing the Boston Red Sox this offseason.
For a team coming off a division title, the Boston Red Sox face their fair share of question marks entering the offseason.
Returning to the postseason after a pair of dismal last place finishes shows tremendous progress, but anything short of a World Series trophy isn’t going to cut it in this town. The moves that Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made last winter helped get the team to this point, but there’s still work to be done in order to make the leap from making the playoffs to being an actual championship contender. Based on what we saw when the Red Sox were swept by the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS, we’re not there yet.
Expect more moves to be made, as the front office tinkers with the roster looking for any way to improve. What should the team’s primary goals be this offseason? I asked the BoSox Injection staff a series of five questions pertaining to the challenges facing this team and what decisions they should make heading into next season.
The answers to these questions varied and some may even surprise you. Here’s what our team had to say in this discussion.
What is the biggest need for the Red Sox in free agency?
Sean Penney: A power hitter to fill the DH role vacated by David Ortiz. Boston’s major league-leading offense was only middle of the pack in home runs and they just lost their best power hitter. Mookie Betts was second on the team with a surprising 31 homers, but isn’t a prototypical slugger that can be expected to reach that mark annually. Hanley Ramirez also reached 30, but for only the second time in his career. This lineup needs more power and there happens to be a guy up in Toronto entering free agency that fits the bill.
Brandon Nickel: With Ortiz retiring, the first instinct would be to say that the team will need another big bat to try to fill that hole. However, a few spots have to be settled before moving in that direction. The bullpen was working well at the end of the season because Koji Uehara returned as the set-up man. If Koji retires, or at least does not re-sign with the Red Sox, the pen may return to their woes of the middle of the season when Uehara was hurt. Brad Ziegler is another key component to that combination for the seventh inning. If Ziegler goes somewhere else, that could leave nobody strong enough to get the Red Sox to the eighth inning. Starting pitching should be alright, but it wouldn’t hurt to grab another decent starter, if possible. If Uehara and Ziegler don’t mind playing as Craig Kimbrel‘s opening act, then the Red Sox should be trying to pay for that big bat.
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Rick McNair: With the loss of Ortiz (127 RBI), you don’t have to be a baseball clairvoyant to determine that need. The stupid move would be to trade for a replacement but never count out stupid with the Red Sox. The smart move would be the free agent market and unless you have gone zombie the answer in obvious – look North or South, DD. Toronto has not one but (count ‘em) two right-hand sluggers for the possible taking. South is Mark Trumbo and his MLB leading 47 home runs. Three players all providing an answer to a deep pockets franchise. Their agents are no doubt drooling at the prospect.
Matthew Loper: Pitching was the reason they were swept and bounced from the playoffs.
Chance Puckett: A lot of people are focusing on filling in the DH spot. However, I think the bullpen needs to be addressed. There are quite a few relievers that will be on the market this offseason. Also, there are lots of closers that could be switched to set-up guys, such as Mark Melancon, Jonathan Papelbon or Travis Wood.
Tracy Katzke: With our bullpen requiring a major overhaul, I would like to see Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman as members of the 2017 Red Sox. Paired with Kimbrel, those three elite arms would allow us to shorten the game to a length of six-innings. In addition, both would be under the age of thirty at the start of the 2017 season. Admittedly, both would likely command hefty annual salaries, though not nearly that of an elite starting pitcher and as relievers, contract-length would not be anywhere approaching that required for a starter. As relievers, both pitchers also would arrive in Boston with less wear on their arms than a similarly aged starting pitcher.
What is the higher priority – adding another ace starting pitcher or an elite reliever?
Sean: In a vacuum we would have to consider an ace starter as more valuable than any reliever given their significantly higher workload, but that’s not necessarily the case when factoring in the construction of this roster. Boston’s pitching staff led the league in ERA in the second half and they have a strong rotation with David Price, Rick Porcello, Steven Wright, Drew Pomeranz and Eduardo Rodriguez. We’ve seen the value of elite relievers this postseason and the Red Sox could use a versatile weapon to deploy against the heart of the opposing lineup, which doesn’t necessarily have to be in the 9th inning. Leave Kimbrel in the closer seat and add a shutdown reliever that can be used in a variety of situations instead of the overrated “save situation.”
Brandon: It’s tough to think that an ace starting pitcher would not be more important, as he pitches more innings than the reliever. The Red Sox already have Kimbrel, so they have the elite reliever under contract already. Porcello was leading, in many people’s minds, as the Cy Young Award favorite for the American League with the most wins. One start against the Cleveland Indians in the ALCS and all of a sudden people’s minds are changing? That doubt that Porcello isn’t an ace came more from the scars of 2015 than the success of 2016. The Red Sox could use another ace starter, but so could every team. Who wouldn’t want five aces? The reality is that the Red Sox starting pitchers were better this season, rounding into form about half way through the year. The Red Sox need to either keep Uehara and Ziegler or find relievers like them to help the bullpen this offseason. If they don’t, the starters will be handing the ball off to middle relievers who will give up the game before Kimbrel can even see the field.
Rick: Elite relievers in free agency are limited to two and that is Kenley Jansen or Aroldis Chapman. Both will certainly break the fiscal bank and both have employers with as much long green as Boston. So go starter and that means Chris Sale.
Matt: I would like another top of the line starter, but I realize that may not be feasible this offseason. Therefore, they need to model themselves after the Indians this year or the Royals last year – get top of the line middle relief to dominate the 6th/7th/8th innings.
Chance: I think an elite reliever is more important. If Porcello and Wright can come close to doing what they did this year, and if Price can be as efficient as Dave Dombrowski is paying him to be, the starting rotation shouldn’t be a problem.
Is the starting third baseman in 2017 already on the roster?
Brandon: For Opening Day 2017, probably. Although, Red Sox Nation won’t want to hear that. Yoan Moncada will likely be the starter in 2018, unless he rounds into form before next year’s spring training. That leaves Pablo Sandoval and Travis Shaw, both whom can’t seem to get their bats going. Shaw beat out Sandoval because of his defense; however, with Sandoval making so much money, the team will have to try to play him to either get something out of their investment or to show that he’s trade-worthy. Either way, it doesn’t seem like there are too many names at third base that the Red Sox could sign in free agency this offseason. Boston will have to make a go of either Shaw or Sandoval for at least the start of 2017.
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Sean: Sadly, yes. The best available free agent third baseman is Justin Turner, who will be difficult to pry away from the Los Angles Dodgers. The trade market is unclear at this point. Either way, it’s unlikely the Red Sox commit to another option at the hot corner with Moncada waiting in the wings. The top prospect in the organization will take over that spot eventually, so there’s no need to spend big bucks on a free agent or sell the farm to trade for an All-Star. In the meantime, we’re stuck watching guys like Sandoval and Shaw try to hold down the fort.
Rick: The starting third baseman is certainly on the roster and the choice is multiple. They all have one thing in common and it is a quaint expression employed often by Red Sox fans: “They suck.” Too bad they don’t toss beach balls, since Moncada would be the favorite. Of course, after what Moncada showed even a beach ball would have a 50/50 chance.
Matt: Sandoval will be at third, while the Sox attempt to add a DH. If they can’t get a deal done, we could see Swihart/Shaw at first with Hanley at DH.
Chance: I personally think Shaw is going to be the starting third baseman. Some are making the case for Moncada or Holt, but I think Shaw can perform much better than what he’s shown us over the past couple of months.
Which player on the roster is most likely to be traded?
Sean: Blake Swihart is the one that is most in need of a change of scenery, as the Red Sox seem to have given up on him as a catcher and the backup plan of moving him to left field is off the table thanks to the emergence of Andrew Benintendi. Unfortunately, admitting that Swihart can’t catch crushed his trade value. If they give up on him now they’ll be lucky to get 50 cents on the dollar. They may be better off selling a guy like Jackie Bradley at the peak of his value if it can land them an ace starter or big-time power bat. Benintendi would then slide over to center field, opening a starting spot for Swihart in left. While I would prefer to keep JBJ, he would bring far more value in a trade than Swihart at this point.
Brandon: Swihart is the only real asset who looks to be in absolute limbo right now and yet still has worth. Almost everyone else on the active roster has either a defined role or isn’t worth much of a look. Swihart could be behind the plate as a catcher for any other MLB team; the problem for him is the log jam of catchers in the Red Sox organization. Between Sandy Leon, Christian Vazquez, and possibly Ryan Hanigan, nobody is the clear favorite to win the position next year. However, it doesn’t look like there is a place for Swihart any time soon in left field either. He’s got potential that another team would want, but the Red Sox just don’t have the time to wait for it to come through if they could make a trade for a proven veteran.
Rick: So long, Jackie Bradley! If you want something, you must give up something. To get Sale, a package must be devised. Red Sox fans will undoubtedly think that a package of Deven Marrero, Shaw and a 30th or so ranked prospect would be an over-payment. Reality check, folks. To get Sale it will be a pile of quality and not baseball flotsam.
Matt: Bradley, because his defense alone is enough to entice other teams and the Sox can’t afford his droughts at the plate. I would think he could be part of a package to bring some pitching back.
Chance: While this may contradict what I just said, if someone is traded, I think it will be Shaw. However, I don’t foresee that happening.
Will Dombrowski cash in more chips from the organizations deep farm system to make another blockbuster trade?
Sean: Hopefully not. The core of this team is built upon players that came up through the system, which is working out pretty well so far. Dombrowski has to be careful not to deplete that pipeline of cost controlled future stars much further than he already has. Free agency would be the best path to finding a slugger to fill the DH void and a power arm for the bullpen, so a blockbuster trade is only necessary if they strike out on the open market.
Brandon: It’s possible. One never wants to go all in for a championship if it’s going to hurt the team in the long run. Some other organizations are going through that problem right now. Yet, the future of the Red Sox is pretty much already on the active roster, many of them playing starting roles for the team. The entire starting outfield and the shortstop will be with the Red Sox for a very long time, and players like Moncada are close to taking the reigns as well. If some prospects who are still developing are playing positions already filled by these young men, then Dombrowski may consider using those chips in a trade package. As long as he doesn’t touch the core of this youth movement, Dombrowski should have a free hand.
Rick: Boston has somewhere around the 5th ranked system and they do have a few players that others certainly will find attractive. If – and it is a big if – the Red Sox wish the services of Sale they will have to part with a few prospects. If I was Chicago I’d want at least two and a few major league ready players, such as JBJ.
Matt: If he can get a top of the line starter, yes he’ll do it. But I think it’s more likely to happen at the deadline or even next offseason.
Next: Is Buchholz coming back in 2017?
Chance: I could certainly see Kopech or Devers being sent somewhere in order to cash in on someone big. Who for? I couldn’t tell you. But I feel like if the Red Sox make moves in free agency regarding the bullpen, and Shaw settles in at third, the front office will feel more comfortable dealing Kopech or Devers somewhere else.