Red Sox: How Steven Wright got his groove back

It was the best of times followed by the worst of times. Red Sox Starter Steven Wright’s implausible season is examined under a microscope.

For Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Steven Wright, it was the best of times, followed by the worst of times, followed, once again, by the best of times. My references to the “times,” obviously relate to the pitching exhibitions authored by the man affectionately known as “Knucklepuck.”

For those who are interested, Steven Wright was acquired on July 31, 2012 from the Cleveland Indians as part of a trade for Lars Anderson.

Most Red Sox fans are cognizant of Wright’s implausible season; however, I surmise that many of those fans are unacquainted with the degree of improbableness that Wright’s season has assumed.

Prior to 2016, Wright, a 31-year-old knuckleball pitcher, had engendered the following career statistics: 7 wins, 5 losses, 26 appearances, 11 games started, an ERA of 3.95, and 107.0 IP. In other words, in 2016 alone, Wright has acquired six more wins, started twice as many games, and thrown approximately 40 more innings than he had in his entire baseball career prior to this season.

As referenced in the first paragraph, the beginning to Wright’s season, specifically his initial 14 starts from April 10 until June 20, was the American League’s best pitching exhibition to commence the 2016 campaign, as on June 20, Wright led the A.L. in ERA with a value of 2.01.

In Wright’s subsequent seven starts, from June 25 through July 31, inclusive, Wright produced an ERA of 6.18. Nonetheless, the Red Sox won five of those seven starts, somewhat concealing Wright’s poor pitching presentations and rendering said presentations less appalling.

In Wright’s most recent start on August 5, he tossed a 3-hit shutout that hopefully signaled the commencement of the third segment of Wright’s 2016 campaign, a segment more analogous to the one authored in his first 14 starts.

Next: April 10 - June 20

April 10 – June 20

From April 10 through June 20, Wright toed the rubber for his first 14 starts of the 2016 campaign. At the beginning of the season, few people had ever heard of Wright, and even fewer could have forecast his unlikely pitching accomplishments.

During those 14 starts, Wright exhibited a record of eight wins and four losses, in addition to a sparking 2.01 ERA, inserting Wright atop the American League leaders in ERA. The team’s record in Wright’s starts amounted to only eight wins accompanied by six losses, a result of a paltry 5.0 runs of support that the Red Sox averaged in those 14 starts.

Nonetheless, Wright had pitched luminously, delivering 12 Quality Starts in only 14 Games Started. In addition, he was the author of three complete games, a second statistical category in which he found himself atop the American League leaderboard.

In nearly 100 IP, Wright had produced the aforementioned statistics as indicated in the chart above. Let us not forget that were it not for Eduardo Rodriguez’s patellar subluxation, Wright would never have become a member of the starting rotation, our most successful starting pitcher would have started the year in the bullpen, and this improbable story would never have materialized.

Next: Regression

Due for a Regression

The prolific results produced by Wright in his first 14 starts were unlikely to be sustainable as indicated by the discrepancy between his FIP and ERA during that period.

FIP and ERA are typically in remarkable agreement, and when they are not, specifically when one’s FIP is much larger than one’s ERA, it indicates that said pitcher has been the beneficiary of short-term fluctuations in luck. The premise behind FIP is to eradicate these short-term fluctuations in luck, both positive and negative, and, as a result, provide a much better indicator, and predictor of performance than ERA.

Specifically, FIP eradicates the short-term fluctuations in BABIP, or Batting Average of Balls in Play, by assuming a league-average value for said statistic, as these fluctuations have nothing to do with “skill,” but are primarily the result of “luck.” The league average for BABIP is around .297, and given a substantial enough sample size, practically all pitchers will be within a few points of this value; however, for short periods, luck can render this value significantly higher or lower. When the FIP is larger than the ERA, the pitcher has been the beneficiary of good luck, and when the FIP is smaller than the ERA, it indicates that the pitcher has been the victim of bad luck.

In his first 14 starts of 2016, Wright’s ERA was 2.01 and his FIP was 3.30. During said period, Wright’s BABIP was .247, well below the league average of .297. What this indicates is that Wright had been the short-term beneficiary of an unsustainable BABIP, and when his BABIP eventually regressed toward the mean, his ERA value would approach his FIP value.

Wright’s ERA was due to regress towards his FIP, and said regression culminated in his 15^th start of 2016.

Next: June 25 - July 31

June 25 – July 31

In Wright’s following seven starts, from June 25 through July 31, inclusive, Wright produced an ERA of 6.18. Nonetheless, as the beneficiary of an average of 7.1 runs of support per game during those seven starts, Wright won four games, while losing only once. The Red Sox won five of those seven starts, somewhat masking Wright’s poor pitching performances and rendering said performances more palatable.

From June 25 to July 31, inclusive, Wright made seven starts; only two of those seven were of the “Quality” variety.

In comparison to his first 14 starts, Wright’s next seven starts saw his BAA and his SLG increase by about 50%.

Strangely, his Strikeout Rate and his Walk Rate remained remarkably unaltered.

While the above numbers are clearly indicative of a decline in performance, they are in no way indicative of a tripling of Wright’s ERA.

I do not want to give away the reasons for a seemingly unjustified tripling of Wright’s ERA; however, Wright was the beneficiary of short-term fluctuations in BABIP during his initial 14 starts, perhaps during his next seven starts, he was the victim of short-term fluctuations in BABIP.

In Wright’s seven starts made between June 25 and July 31, his ERA was 6.18 and his FIP was 3.96.

During this period, Wright’s ERA was significantly higher than his FIP, indicating that he was the victim of short-term fluctuations in BABIP.

Remember that the Major League average for BABIP is around .297, and when a pitcher’s BABIP is very near that value, his FIP and ERA will be virtually identical. When a pitcher’s ERA is well above his FIP, one can be sure that his BABIP greatly exceeds .297.

A quick perusal of the chart above indicates that during this seven game span, Wright’s BABIP was .362, far greater than the league average value of .297.

Next: Rest of the season

August 5 – Postseason (Hopefully)

From April 10 through June 20, Wright was the beneficiary of short-term fluctuations in BABIP as indicated by an ERA of 2.01, an FIP of 3.30 and a BABIP of .247.

From June 25 through July 31, Wright was the victim of short-term fluctuations in BABIP as illustrated by an ERA of 6.18, an FIP of 3.96, and a BABIP of .362.

In Wright’s most recent start on August 5, he tossed a 3-hit shutout that hopefully signals the commencement of the third segment of Wright’s 2016 campaign, a segment more similar to the one authored in his first 14 starts.

My colleague Brandon Nickel provides a detailed account of Wright’s performance.

At present, Steven Wright possesses an ERA of 3.01 and an FIP of 3.37. His BABIP for the season stands at .278, indicating that no major regression is on the horizon.

Next: Red Sox make Alex Rodriguez escape

If Wright can regain his early season form, David Price begins to pitch better, and Junichi Tazawa is DFA’d, this Boston Red Sox Squad might just have enough to make some noise in the postseason.