Red Sox are clear winners in the Rick Porcello contract

The Pre-Porcello Contract Market.

Max Scherzer– Seven years, $210 million (AAV = $31 million)

Scherzer signed this contract with the Nationals four months before Porcello signed his with the Red Sox.  The contract Washington gave him would pay him $31 million for his age-30-through-36 seasons.  In his previous five seasons, all with the Tigers, he compiled a 3.52 ERA and an ERA+ of 117.  However, it is what he did in 2013 (21 wins, 2.90 ERA and the CY Young) and 2014 (18 wins, 3.15 ERA) that netted him the annual average of $31 million.

Porcello Contract Comparison: The Red Sox are paying Porcello $11 million less per season.  The main difference between the two, other than stuff, which Scherzer is no doubt superior, is the age difference. While Washington is getting the down years, Boston is getting prime years.  The odds of the Nationals receiving anywhere near a $31 million-valued performance from Scherzer is slim-to-none, but the Red Sox have a real chance to receive close to $20 million in value from Porcello over the next four seasons.  It is also worth noting that Porcello and Scherzer had very good walk years.

I am not suggesting Porcello is better than Scherzer, but the value of his contract is, and it is more likely than not that the Red Sox receive more of their money’s worth from the respective deals.  Given their age and history of performance, if Scherzer is worth $31 million per season and $210 million over the life of his contract through his mid-thirties, is Porcello not worth $20 million per season and $82 million over the life of his contract through his late twenties?

Homer Bailey – Six years, $105 million (AAV = $17.5 million)

Bailey signed this contract with the Reds in February of 2014, approximately one year before Porcello signed his.  The deal would pay Bailey for his age-28-through-33 seasons.  In the four seasons that preceded the deal, Bailey started a total of 96 games and pitched 109, 132, 208 and 209 innings, respectively.  His best ERA during that period was 3.49 in 2013.  In the other three years, his ERA was 4.46 (2010), 4.43 (2011) and 3.68 (2012).  As for his ERA+. it was 91 in 2010, 89 in 2011, 112 in 2012 and 108 in 2013.

There really is no argument here. Porcello was a better pitcher at the time he signed his contract AND two years younger.  Not only that, but Porcello’s contract is due to end after his age-30 season while Bailey’s is due to end after his age-33 season.  Although Bailey had a lower ERA, you have to consider the fact that he was pitching in the NL while Porcello was in the AL.  Normally, that is worth at least a half-run in ERA, which balances things out.  The biggest difference between the two though statistically was their track record.  While Porcello had six full seasons of MLB starting experience, Bailey had two.

Nonetheless, Bailey was given a contract worth over $20 million more over the life of his deal.  Given their age difference and past performances, if Bailey is worth $105 million over six years, Porcello is worth at least $125 million over the same period of time, which coincidentally comes out to approximately $21 million annually and is exactly what the Red Sox gave him.

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