Red Sox breakout selections for 2016

5 of 5

Oct 4, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Rick Porcello (22) delivers in the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

One of the responsibilities of the Attorney General’s Office in Massachusetts is to investigate consumer fraud. I don’t know if the Red Sox were victims when they signed Rick Porcello? Or were they willing accomplices? Maybe it was just a desire to say “We won” with the trade that brought Porcello to Boston.

What happened? You look at the metrics and what jumps out for me in a comparison to Porcello’s 2014 (15-13, 3.43) is the HR/9 that went from 0.79 to 1.31 in 2015. Every game you just knew one would leave the park. The BABIP was .298 in 2014 and jumped to .332 in Boston. The WAR shrunk from 2.8 to 1.6. I have been educated by the seamheads on the importance of xFIP as a true indicator and, voilà, it was stable with a 3.68 in 2014 to 3.72.

Next: Red Sox free agent target: Matt Wieters

The real indicator to me is the second half statistics that take into account a post R & R visit to the disabled list. Porcello went 4-6 with a 3.53 ERA and a WHIP of 1.29. Not great numbers, but numbers that one could associate with a middle rotation pitcher. Look for Porcello to keep on that track with a season similar to 2014 with the Tigers.

Sources: Fangraphs.