August 31, 2012; Oakland, CA, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Alfredo Aceves (91) pitches the ball against the Oakland Athletics during the fifth inning at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Naturally, the Sox failed to reward the strong pitching performances by once again surrendering the lead late. JD Durbin gave up back-to-back singles to start off the eighth. After two quick outs, third baseman Drew Sutton, who has had his share if mistakes in the field this spring, misplayed what should have been the final out of the inning, and allowed the go-ahead and eventual winning run to score.

Offensively, it was a quiet day for the Sox bats, with only two hits for the afternoon. Unsurprisingly, Jackie Bradley Jr. provided one of the few sparks, when he hit a double in the first inning off Jays’ starter JA Happ. Other than that, the bats never really woke up, striking out eight times and failing to push off a run.

It should be noted that Bradley Jr. spent his first time this spring in left field, a possible foreshadowing of things to come. Bradley Jr., a natural center fielder, has a shot to make the Opening Day roster in left with Jonny Gomes likely filling David Ortiz‘s DH role.

Saturday afternoon offers up some baseball to combat the current basketball frenzy, with Clay Buchholz scheduled to start against the Pirates at 1:35 p.m. EST.

Mar 7, 2013; Fort Myers, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Clay Buchholz (11) throws in the first inning during a spring training game against the Minnesota Twins at Hammond Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Offensively, the Red Sox got off to a fast start, scoring two in the first inning off Bucs’ starter, James McDonald. Highlighting the first inning offensive charge was Shane Victorino, who lead off the game with a triple, and Ryan Lavarnway, who contributed a two RBI single. However, the Sox offense stagnated the rest of the game, collecting only four hits and were unable to score another run until the ninth.

Compounding the paucity of runs was another rough outing by the bullpen. After admitting a leadoff walk, Chris Carpenter allowed a two-run home run that put the Pirates back up 3-2.

The Red Sox play next against the Baltimore Orioles, with newcomer Ryan Dempster scheduled to toe the rubber for the Sox. Game time at 1:35 p.m. ET

——————————————————————–

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Send your questions to  bosoxinjection@gmail.com and Earl will publish the questions and answers on the Bosox Injection site, ensuring that you get your 15 minutes of fame.

March 31, 2012; Port Charlotte, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Darnell McDonald (54) singles in the third inning against the Tampa Bay Rays during their spring training game at Charlotte Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Unfortunately, the general public puts way too much stock in spring training statistics when assessing a player’s future performance. I understand it, I really do. People simply want their team’s players to do well, and spring training success acts as a confirmation bias of sorts.

For example, a player on your favorite team hits .400 and suddenly, he’s primed for a breakout season. Or maybe a career journeyman catches fire, and is now expected to be  a legitimate starter for a club with playoff aspirations. Perhaps a strong spring justifies the big contract given out to a player the previous winter. Yet, when the games actually begin to MATTER, some players fail to live up to the pre-season hype. It’s not that the players succumb to the pressure of playing major league ball. These guys have been playing baseball their entire life; playing games that matter shouldn’t alter their psyche or approach. It’s the idea that expectations based on incredibly small sample sizes are meaningful at all.

In fact, all of the above examples were real cases of 2012 spring training success stories but regular season disappointment. Eric Hosmer, following a superb rookie campaign, hit .398 and led the circuit with 29 RBI in the spring. When it mattered, he hit .232 and saw his power disappear, hitting only 14 home runs and slugged .359. Longtime journeyman Darnell McDonald tried to make his spring performance a launch pad for his career, hitting .427/.512/.816 in eighteen games. However, once the regular season began, McDonald remained the same old McDonald, and was later designated for assignment in June. Additionally, Albert Pujols hit .385 and had a league leading 7 home runs following the inking of his mega-contract signed earlier that offseason. While Pujols was still productive, it was the worst season of his career and certainly did not match the expectations produced from his contract and productive spring.

Incredibly, year after year, people continue to fall for the farce of spring training statistics. Statistically speaking, there is practically no evidence linking spring training numbers to regular season production. Using the coefficient of determination (r²), a number’s correlation to other data can be determined. It may seem a bit math-y, but it is really quite simple.  An r² value close to zero (0) represents data that has practically no correlation while values closer to 1.0 show data that greatly supports and correlates with the data. I know in Earl’s piece, he stated there was an r² value of .21 for spring training statistics, but more recent data suggests even less correlation. In a piece from Beyond the Box Score, Lance Rinker found that a hitter’s average, on-base, and slugging numbers had r² values of .034, .002, and .052, respectively. This correlation is as close to meaningless as possible, and further proves the lack of predicative value spring training numbers provide.

Just as Earl perfectly detailed in his piece, spring training is full of fallacies. One such example was that of the young phenom, who is prematurely labeled as baseball’s next big thing. Sure, while there are guys like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, who blow past every expectation imaginable and truly live up to the hype, most players are not Trout and Harper. Unsurprisingly, following the seasons put together by last year’s rookies of the year, people are already clamoring for baseball’s next young star.

To many, that next young star is Jackie Bradley Jr. Bradley has hit a robust .484/.590/.645 this spring with plenty claiming he should start the season in the majors. Don’t get me wrong, I am plenty excited for Bradley to be in a Sox uniform. It’s just that rushing him to the Majors because of a couple of spring training at-bats is short-sighted and lazy. First off, the Sox have no nowhere for him to play. A little more seasoning never hurt anyone and would almost certainly benefit from playing every day. Furthermore, it is unfair and ridiculous to think that just because Bradley has crushed spring pitching, it is a foregone conclusion that he will perform at the Major League level. It is common knowledge that pitchers specifically work on things in spring training and quite honestly just do not give 100% in effort to stay healthy. Lastly, the sample sizes seen in spring training numbers are way too minute to credibly give any definite conclusion regarding a player. Just like a coin flipped twice might land twice on heads, it doesn’t mean there is an 100% chance of getting heads; it is simply too small of a sample.

So please, stop quoting spring training statistics and act like they mean something. They don’t.

“…it is a tale…Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, Signifying nothing.”

Except to serve as a happy harbinger of the imminent arrival of The Summer Game, as well as an opportunity for media morons to practice their hyped Happy Horseshit routines, and get a tan, Spring training is virtually insignificant.

The Three Fallacies of Spring Training:

1. Statistics predict how players and teams will perform in the coming season.
2. The Phenom Phantasy, where a Minor league prospect forces his way onto the Major League roster. And, just might be “The Next [Big Star].”
3. Warm weather and exercise allows players to “round into shape.”

Bollocks!

PREDICTIVE STATISTICS?

One of the first principles of statistics is sample size and validity; the larger the sample size, the more likely the derived projections will be predictive.

Still, baseball “fanatics” become intoxicated by the bubbly brew that issues from the mouths of pretentious prophets feverishly working to fill the air-time for their profit-driven, corporate media masters.

Listen:

“To those who think Spring Training is meaningless….

Is Matt Harvey’s performance this afternoon meaningless.
He was near 100 on the slow gun, hitting every spot…………”

So spake betting website prophet, Steve Nash [no relation to NBA star or author.]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2219338-those-who-think-spring-training-meaningless.html

The baseball rube reads volumes into a syllable.  Would you take betting advice from a guy who doesn’t know that most Major league hitters can crush a 100 MPH heater, unless it has some movement?

Odds are better than even that he also believes that a player who has hit an inordinate number of HRs in Spring training is bound for The Show.

“Split squad” games are common, where the Spring training rosters are broken into two unevenly talented teams, usually a mix of proven veteran players and scrubeenies, so one needs to look at the boxscores to see just who was pitching against this “Next Babe Ruth.”

Consider:  “In Spring Training you’re just trying to get outs, and guys are trying to work on their own stuff,” There’s times you’ll throw a pitch to a guy and probably get him out, but because of what he might be trying to work on that day, you’ve just got to kind of throw it out the window.” [A. J. Pierzynski, MLB catcher]

Even if a player is racking up hits and HRs against veteran pitchers, it is typical that the hurlers are trying out a new pitch, or working to refine a weak one.  In the last few games, the veterans finish their experiments and the results are a bit more realistic.

“…it’s not often that pitchers showcase their full repertoire of pitches, especially early on. There are also days where a specific pitch might be the focus for a pitcher, meaning he’ll throw his sinker in counts where he’d throw a breaking ball during the regular season.” [A. J. Pierzynski, MLB catcher]

[http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130307&content_id=42385494&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb]

Sports Illustrated’s Sky Andrecheck, a confessed statistician by trade, in his article “Spring training games aren’t as meaningless as they may seem,” had to stretch his Official Major League Baseball Licensed Replica Lycra Jersey to find anything numeric note.

“Going back to 2003, there is a small but noticeable correlation (r-squared of .21). That’s not a very strong correlation, but it certainly is more informative than nothing. “

[http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/sky_andrecheck/02/17/spring.training/index.html#ixzz2NcYYzoDE]

Q:  What is less informative than nothing?

Shakespeare:  “Nothing shall come of nothing.” [King Lear]

The Sensible Seamheads over on FanGraphs ran their fancy formulas and squeezed out two significant stats from Spring training:

• K% and BB% may help identify breakout and bust performers for the upcoming season.
• Spring ERA is completely useless.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/spring-training-stats-that-matter/

Over on Bleacher Report you can find this parsed farce: Mid-Spring MLB Power Rankings.

“The truth is out there somewhere.”  But it will not likely be found in a world of illusion and certainly not in Spring training statistics.

[Skully, The X-Files TV series (1993-2002)]

(NOTE: Also see Spring training stats post on this website by Aiden Flynn.)

PHENOM  PHANTASY

Cultures use mythology as a means of explaining the fundamental questions of existence; Americans like a good story, like author Horatio Alger’s books for boys featuring the “rags to riches” myth; some Americans still believe that any child can grow up to be President of the United States.

Baseball’s hoary lore says it started with Phenomenal Smith [LHP, Phil., 1884]; whatever the origin, the myth persists:  “The Phenom”– a  Minor league player with phenomenal  talent, wows the coaches in Spring training, makes the Major league roster, and becomes a star, maybe even on Broadway…”Start spreading the news…I’m leaving today.”

While some International veteran players, especially from Cuba, have burst on the scene and realized instant success–Luis Tiant, Yoenis Cespedes, Aroldis Chapman, Yu Darvish—Mike Trout and Bryce Harper and rare exceptions to the Kid Crashes The Show myth.

Mickey Mantle?  The “Commerce Comet,” “The Next Joe DiMaggio”?

LISTEN:

“Mantle was invited to the Yankees instructional camp before the 1951 season. After an impressive spring training, Yankees manager Casey Stengel decided to promote Mantle to the majors as a right fielder instead of sending him to the minors.  Mickey Mantle’s salary for the 1951 season was $7,500.

“He’s the greatest prospect I’ve seen in my time, and I go back quite a ways. I’ll swear I expect to see that boy just take off and fly any time.” —Bill Dickey on Mickey Mantle^[12]

Mantle was assigned uniform #6, signifying the expectation that he would become the next Yankees star, following Babe Ruth (#3), Lou Gehrig (#4) and Joe DiMaggio (#5).^[6] Stengel, speaking to SPORT, stated “He’s got more natural power from both sides than anybody I ever saw.”^[13] Bill Dickey called Mantle “the greatest prospect [he's] seen in [his] time.”^[12]

After a brief slump, Mantle was sent down to the Yankees’ top farm team, the Kansas City Blues. However, he was not able to find the power he once had in the lower minors. Out of frustration, he called his father one day and told him, “I don’t think I can play baseball anymore.” Mutt drove up to Kansas City that day. When he arrived, he started packing his son’s clothes and, according to Mantle’s memory, said “I thought I raised a man. I see I raised a coward instead. You can come back to Oklahoma and work the mines with me.”^[14] Mantle immediately broke out of his slump, going on to hit .361 with 11 homers and 50 RBIs during his stay in Kansas City.^[6]

Mantle was called up to the Yankees after 40 games with Kansas City, this time wearing uniform #7.”

In the World Series that year, the young Mantle, baseball’s archetypal “Hero,“ was tripped up by Fate and would never realize his full potential:

“In the second game of the 1951 World Series, New York Giants rookie Willie Mays hit a fly ball to right-center field. Mantle, playing right field raced for the ball together with center fielder Joe DiMaggio who called for the ball. In getting out of DiMaggio’s way, Mantle tripped over an exposed drain pipe and severely injured his right knee. This was the first of numerous injuries that would plague his 18-year career with the Yankees.” [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mickey_Mantle]

When Yankee manager Casey Stengel was asked if Mickey Mantle was the greatest player ever, he accurately replied:

“[He was] the best one-legged player I ever saw.” [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mickey_Mantle]

Yes, there were three 17 year-old kids who not only were successful “Phemoms,” but also made it all the way to the Hall of Fame: Bob Feller, Jimmie Fox and Mel Ott. And there was the exceptional Joe Nuxhall, who made his debut on June 10, 1944, one of the war years when players were scarce, at the tender age of 15:

But these players were the exceptions to the rule; they are far outnumbered by the “Can’t Miss” list of Failed Phemoms; to wit:

Brien Taylor, Ben Grieve, Lastings Milledge, Sean Burroughs, Drew Henson, Shawn Abner, Delmon Young Andy Larkin, Tyler Pastornicky, Anthony Vasquez, Brandon Wood, Steve Jeltz, Munenori Kawasaki, Dave Skaugstad.

How many of their Rookie cards did you use to start your wood fire?

ROUNDING INTO SHAPE

Warm weather and exercise allows players to “round into shape.”

From the time it began in the 1890’s until around 1972 Spring training had some relevance.

Today’s Commissioner Bud Selig and MLB are mounting an aggressive promotional campaign for Spring training 2013:

“Sun, scenery, history!”

So, let’s recall a bit of history:

“According to the autobiography of former Cleveland Indians owner Bill Veeck, avoiding racism was one reason the Cactus League was established.^[6] In 1947, Veeck was the owner of the minor league Milwaukee Brewers and the team trained in Ocala, Fla. Veeck inadvertently sat in the segregated section of the stands and engaged in conversation with a couple of Black fans.^[7] According to Veeck’s book, the local law enforcement told Veeck he could not sit in that section, and then called the Ocala mayor when Veeck argued back. The mayor finally backed down when Veeck threatened to take his team elsewhere for spring training and promised to let the country know why.”  [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spring_training#History]

Brilliant baseball innovator, Branch Rickey, essentially invented the “farm system” for developing in-house talent and in 1942, he along with the Brooklyn Dodgers’ Minor League director Buzzy Bavasi, set up the first spring training facility.  In Vero Beach, Florida, they took a 104-acre civilian small-craft airport and converted it into the prototype of all Major League facilities.

Rickey also initiated the first batting helmets, batting cages, pitching machines, and a string to outline the strike zone for pitchers working on their control.

“The back of Ken McMullen’s 1973 baseball card has a little cartoon that shows him holding the nozzle to a gas pump (he’s wearing his baseball uniform, naturally) with the caption: “Ken works in a service station in the offseason.” [http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/110126_MLB_second_jobs&sportCat=mlb]

The need to have a “real job” during the off-season changed dramatically in 1972:

In 1969 a courageous St. Cardinals’ OF, Curt Flood, later christened “Dred Scott in Spikes” by conservative columnist George Will, challenged the reserve clause. Although the Nixon Supreme Court refused to end the  indentured servant status of baseball players, 5 to 3 in 1972; Marvin Miller persevered and pursued and won free agency for the players in 1975.

The Major League Baseball Players Association became a labor union in 1966. Marvin Miller, an economist with the United Steel Workers of America, was chosen by the players to be the Association’s first executive director.

Since that time, players have had the time and money to hire personal trainers, hit the gym daily, or even build their own exercise facility.

In the Old Days, players working a second job did not have the money or resources to take time to stay physically fit and Spring training did serve the purpose of allowing them to round into playing shape.

Last season [2012] a Major league player’s average salary was $3,213,479; the minimum salary for the 2013 season is $490,000.

Today, players arrive at Spring training in regular season shape and use their pre-season weeks in Florida and Arizona to reacquaint themselves with the finer points of their timing and mechanics.

Despite the over-amped efforts of the media mob to “make it count,” it is no longer necessary for modern day players to “round into shape.”  Today, they don’t toss around a medicine ball, they do long toss and then head to the clubhouse for a shower, a massage, a health drink; then, they blow dry their hair, check the stock market on their iPhone, and head out for an upscale dinner in their Bugatti Veyron Super Sports, Austin Martin One-77, or Hummer.

If Shakespeare were alive today, he might find Spring training amusing and observe:

“What fools these mortals be.”*

0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

*Puck, “A Midsummer Nights Dream,” Act 3, scene 2, 110–115.

It’s only spring training and it’s best for fans to not look too much into the stats and records of exhibitions. But making a good impression definitely doesn’t hurt.

Feb 25, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Steven Wright throws against the Toronto Blue Jays during the bottom of the second inning of a spring training split squad game at Florida Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Boston’s 4-2 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays featured several good impressions. Steven Wright pitched two shutout innings giving up two hits while striking out three. That was good enough to earn the win over 2012 Cy Young winner and prized trade acquisition, R.A. Dickey. Prospect Allen Webster would follow Wright. Webster would pitch two innings, giving up one run on two hits while striking out four. Both pitchers are on the 40 man roster and are likely to be up at some point in 2013.

From the offensive front, Jackie Bradley Jr. recorded three hits in three at-bats to go with a run, RBI, and a walk (one double and four total bases). Second baseman Brock Holt recorded two singles and scored one run. Holt is projected to begin the year with Pawtucket and is on the 40 man roster. If an injury were to occur in the infield, he’s a candidate to be called up. Bradley will either begin 2013 in Portland or Pawtucket. He’s not on the 40 man as of right now, but could force the big club’s hand if he continues to rake in the minors.

It’s only spring training, but count me in as one who’s excited for 2013 to get underway.

Feb 17, 2013; Fort Myers FL, USA; Boston Red Sox player Xander Bogaerts (72) poses during photo day at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Xander Bogaerts- Bogaerts came into the spring opener on Saturday as a defensive replacement for third baseman Will Middlebrooks. He got two at bats and went 1-2 with a clutch RBI single up the middle in the bottom of the ninth (the Red Sox went on to lose). The 20 year old also made a nice grab at third base and got the out with good reactions in a rundown. In my limited viewing of Bogaerts, he appeared to be as advertised. He’s got a good plate presence and drove the ball up the middle; defensively, he has a good arm and looked like a natural at third base, a position he just started playing at the outset of spring.

Feb 25, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley (74) slides home on a pass ball by Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher R.A. Dickey (not pictured) during the top of the first inning of a spring training split squad game at Florida Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Jackie Bradley Jr.- So far, Bradley has gotten into three big league spring training games and has looked very good. He is 4-6 with a double, a walk, and an RBI and has seemed to be handling “big league” pitching pretty well. Since Bradley is not departing for the World Baseball Classic like Bogaerts, he should continue to play nearly every day as the Red Sox want to get a good look to see if he’s the center fielder of the future. It looks like he is right now as he’s shown an ability to hit for contact and play a strong center field.

Feb 25, 2013; Dunedin, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Allen Webster (64) during the bottom of third inning of a spring training split squad game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Florida Exchange Park. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Allen Webster- Webster got his first game action today against the Blue Jays and looked pretty good. He threw two innings and allowed two hits and a run while striking out four batters (in a row) in his limited time. Even more impressive, Webster was hitting the high 90′s– hitting 98 and 99 mph on back-to-back pitches. Webster is likely to see plenty of action this spring and will probably see his major league debut sometime this year.

Feb 17, 2013; Fort Myers FL, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Rubby De La Rosa (62) poses during photo day at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Rubby de la Rosa- It’s up for debate whether de la Rosa is truly a prospect anymore. However, there’s no debate that he is young and he is good. In two innings on Sunday against the Cardinals, he allowed no baserunners and actually threw a remarkable three-pitch ninth inning while also hitting 100 mph multiple times.

This abundance of big time prospects, which there has been quite a lack of recently, could make this spring a very fun one to watch. Xander Bogaerts will be off to Japan for the World Baseball Classic, but the others should be entertaining. More than anything else, it’s so nice to have some high quality pitching on the way and it looks like the Red Sox have that and then some.

Feb 17, 2013; Fort Myers FL, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Joel Hanrahan (52) poses during photo day at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

It’ll only be relievers pitching in the college games on Thursday in both games. The inning-by-inning breakdown in the day game against B.C. will be Koji Uehara, Andrew Bailey, Oscar Villareal, Terry Doyle (for two innings), Jose De La Torre, and Junichi Tazawa. Three of those pitchers (Uehara, Bailey, and Tazawa) are likely to start the season in the major leagues. In the afternoon game against NEU, it’ll be Joel Hanrahan, Daniel Bard, Andrew Miller, Alex Wilson, Clayton Mortensen, Pedro Beato, and Anthony Carter. The first five of those pitchers are likely to see major league action this year, so it’ll be good for them to get their arms loose.

Feb 17, 2013; Fort Myers FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher John Lackey (41) poses during photo day at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

After that first action, the Red Sox will have a day of rest before heading to Tampa Bay’s spring training facility for their first Grapefruit League game. It’s going to be John Lackey starting that game and pitching for the first time since September 2011 after Tommy John Surgery. Lackey will be followed by a few of the relievers who pitched in the double-header: Drake Britton, Pedro Beato, Anthony Carter, Jose De La Torre, Oscar Villareal, Alex Wilson, and Steven Wright.

Feb 17, 2013; Fort Myers FL, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester (31) poses during photo day at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

The Red Sox will get right back to work on Sunday, where Jon Lester will start followed by a group of potential major leaguers in Rubby de la Rosa, Junichi Tazawa, Joel Hanrahan, Andrew Bailey, Andrew Miller, and Koji Uehara. Sunday will be followed by some split-squad action on Monday with Alfredo Aceves, Chris Hernandez, Daniel Bard, Clayton Mortensen, Oscar Villareal, and Alex Wilson facing the Rays again while Steven Wright, Allen Webster, Terry Doyle, De La Torre, Pedro Beato, Chris Carpenter, and Anthony Carter face the new look Blue Jays.

The pitching rotation doesn’t matter much this early. However, it is nice to have a constant flow of Red Sox news and this is another element in that. It should be good to see Lackey shake off the rust in the first televised game on Saturday. Also, there are a few real world implications here. The way this rotation shapes up, Jon Lester is slated to start Opening Day.

Feb 25, 2012; Fort Myers, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia (15) takes infield practice at spring training at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Even with the limited news which I’ve seen in the last few days, everybody seems to be optimistic and saying the right things to the media members who enter the clubhouse. There have been reports of “so and so” in the best shape of their life, and on the other hand we’ve had the first injury of the year– a hamstring strain for Clay Buchholz.

Still, this is the next step towards baseball season. Today marks one week until the Red Sox play their double-header against Boston College and Northeastern and nine days until the first Grapefruit League game and first televised game against the Rays. There’s a lot to like about this new-look team, and this should be a fun one to watch.

Feb 21, 2012; Fort Myers FL, USA; Boston Red Sox pitchers listen to manager Bobby Valentine (not pictured) during spring training at JetBlue Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

It’s still nine days until the start of exhibition games, but that doesn’t mean that pitchers and catchers reporting isn’t a momentous occasion. There is now consistent news about the Red Sox including picture and video of the boys in their new uniforms. Plus, there will be even more consistent news starting Thursday when position players report to Ft. Myers.

There’s a ton of optimism around camp judging from player interviews, and everybody seems to like the new team. It’s certainly a change from last year, as the Red Sox made nine major league acquisitions this winter. However, almost all those guys appear to be good clubhouse guys and are gelling together well. I’m excited to continue seeing little bits of news until position players officially report on Thursday.

Apr 11, 2012; Toronto, ON, Canada; Boston Red Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis (20) reacts after striking out in the 9th inning as Toronto Blue Jays catcher J.P. Arencibia (9) makes the putout at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays beat the Red Sox 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-US PRESSWIRE

One of the things overshadowed by the Rangers pasting of the Red Sox last night was Kevin Youkilis‘ 0-4, 4K performance. The struggles from Youk have been concerning from the outset but the further we tread into the season, the more you have to worry about his situation and what options the Red Sox have at third base if this continues.

Through 9 games played, Youk has hit .176 in 34 at-bats but more concerning is his .237 OBP and 35.3 SO % and just 8.8 BB %–compared to 19.3 and 13.2 in 2011–according to Baseball Reference. Known for his excellent on-base skills, this signals that something isn’t right with him to start the season but what can be done about it?

We’re still early in the season and there’s plenty of time to turn things around, but can the Red Sox afford to wait around for him to come out of the slump that started this spring and has carried into the season?

I’m not opposed to giving him more time but at some point you have to draw the line and see if you can get production elsewhere. With the American League as strong in ’12 as its ever been, there’s no room for players under the Mendoza line.

Kevin Youkilis has earned the opportunity to work out his struggles so I’m not saying something needs to happen now but at some point it may be unavoidable–especially with Will Middlebrooks kicking the door down at Triple-A Pawtucket.

Middlebrooks is hitting .333 (16-48) with 3HR, 3 doubles, 11 RBI, and a walk through 12 games.

The Red Sox are known for giving their prospects adequate time to develop–see Ryan Lavarnway–so it may be early to expect a call-up for the number one prospect in the farm, but he’s an option.

Another option is a trade but is it likely this early in the season?

When the speculation came out that the Red Sox may try to bring Coco Crisp back, I added my speculation that Billy Beane might want the “Greek God of Walks” and maybe something could be worked out with the A’s. It’s since come out the Sox are scouting Scott Podsednik so it doesn’t seem likely that this will happen.

Adding to the complexity of the situation is the recently formed rift between Youkilis and Bobby V along with the revelation that there may be a situation regarding Josh Beckett accusing Youk of being a source for the Bob Hohler story in October.

With so many different elements to the situation, it’s hard to speculate with any amount of certainty what will happen with Kevin Youkilis as the season progresses. Apparently the ordeal with Valentine has been settled but does anyone really think it’s over? And if Youkilis continues to underperform–at a position known for its offensive output–do the Red Sox have a choice but to take action?

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Clay Buchholz missed the majority of 2011 with a back injury but he looks healthy and ready to go in 2012-His health will play a big part in the success of the Red Sox. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

While its highly debatable whether or not spring training stats mean anything, its still interesting to evaluate the stats and see how the Red Sox faired against their opponents. The shuffled lineups and vast number of minor league players competing in the spring make it hard to judge anything from the stats but lets look at some encouraging signs from the pitching staff anyways, for the hell of it.

Red Sox Spring ERA

Perhaps the most important part of the Sox’ success in the 2012 season will be their pitching. Offense shouldn’t be a problem with Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez anchoring the lineup but 2011 served to remind us that all that offense can be rendered useless with inadequate pitching.

Red Sox pitchers posted a combined ERA of 3.98 in 31 spring training games compared to a 4.20 combined ERA for the ’11 season. The 3.98 ERA Sox pitching posted ranked 10th in the majors this spring, a large upgrade from their 22nd place finish in 2012.

The small sample size makes it hard to predict that the Red Sox will match or better their 3.98 mark from the spring but there is reason for optimism.

First, Clay Buchholz looks healthy-with some rust understandably-but most importantly healthy. If he can stay healthy, this could be the year he could get back to ’10 form and compete for a Cy Young award.

Second, Felix Doubront looks primed for a breakout year, giving the Red Sox something they didn’t have last year-An effective starter at the back of the rotation and a second lefty to boot.

Third, Jon Lester is entering his prime at the age of 28 and appears ready for a big year. If he can get his control issues in check he might finally win 20 games.

Fourth, John Lackey won’t pitch an inning in 2012-Perhaps the most inspiring aspect of the Red Sox rotation.

The biggest concern in regards to pitching is the bullpen. It seems the tables have turned on ’11 when the Sox bullpen was a strength. Andrew Bailey‘s thumb injury will test the Red Sox’ depth in the ninth inning but they do have capable arms. It’s my prediction that Daniel Bard will be back in the bullpen by May 1 and Aaron Cook will take the fifth spot in the rotation. In doing this, Bobby V would be strengthening his ‘pen and rotation at the same time-No brainer right?

Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon and Daniel Bard in the bullpen would be a very effective trio but beyond those three the water gets muddy. Can the rest of the bullpen hold their own and get the ball to the closer-whoever that may be-in the ninth?

Matt Albers was very good for a large chunk of ’11 but-like many other Red Sox-he suffered a sharp decline in the second half. I’m inclined to think that we’re gonna see more of the second half Matt Albers-his career numbers suggest his first half was an aberration.

Franklin Morales has the stuff to be a top lefty out of the bullpen but he’s yet to put it all together-can he this year? Maybe, but I’m not so sure. His control has been and will likely remain an issue.

Michael Bowden put up a 2.45 ERA in 11 Innings this spring but will it translate to the regular season? There’s a chance it could. In three trips to Ft. Myers before this year Bowden never posted an ERA under 4.35-maybe he’s finally ready to make the leap?

As you can see, the Red Sox have some question marks in their pitching but there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Can Daniel Bard/Aaron Cook and Felix Doubront really be any worse than Kyle Weiland, Tim Wakefield, Erik Bedard and the rest of the pitchers that filled out the rotation last year?

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March 17, 2012; Sarasota, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Pedro Ciriaco (77) singles in the fifth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium. The Red Sox and Orioles ended in a 3 - 3 tie. Mandatory Credit: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

One of the most exciting aspects of spring training baseball involves prospects trying to make an impression on their respective managers. When the Red Sox started spring training there were the usual suspects in guys like Will Middlebrooks, Jose Iglesias, Ryan Lavarnway and a few others. If I had included Pedro Ciriaco in that list in the beginning of March, you likely would have called me crazy. The Dominican shortstop has made quite an impression this month as a non roster invitee to Red Sox camp so I thought we could take a look at the situation and see if he could fit anywhere.

After going 0-1 in Fridays game against the Twins, Ciriaco now carries a .405 average (15-37) with just four games remaining in spring training. To put this into contrast I looked at the leading candidate for the shortstop position Mike Aviles‘ numbers. Aviles has just two more hits than Ciriaco but he’s been to the plate 17 more times (54).

Neither of the two have shown much in the way of plate discipline with Ciriaco taking just one walk this spring and Aviles yet to take a base on balls but the former has shown a much better ability on the base paths with 5 SB in 6 tries compared to Aviles’ 1SB in 4 tries.

Ciriaco has also had the advantage thus far with a 1.143 OPS, 1HR, 7 RBI compared to the .759 OPS, 0HR, 4 RBI that Mike Aviles has posted this spring. When you look at the numbers you would think Bobby V would make room for the journeyman, even as a backup, but it’s not that simple.

The problem is the Red Sox don’t have a roster spot free to give Pedro Ciriaco a job as a backup infielder. In order to put him on the roster they would first have to make a move on the 40 man roster. Not to mention the Sox signed shortstop Nick Punto in the offseason to either platoon with or backup Mike Aviles. Punto hasn’t had a terrible spring (.250/.351/.313) but his offense has definitely been lacking to this point. The question is, would Bobby V and the Red Sox be bold enough to give Nick Punto’s roster spot to a 26 year old that very well could just be riding a hot streak? It’s very doubtful in my eyes.

Looking through the roster several times I can’t find an open spot that would make sense for Ciriaco. The kid has definitely opened a lot of eyes in Red Sox camp but I’m not sure that Bobby V can make room for him on the big club. This is the way that I predict the Sox will open the season..

Jon Lester
Josh Beckett
Clay Buchholz
Felix Doubront
Daniel Bard
Alfredo Aceves
Mark Melancon
Andrew Bailey
Matt Albers
Franklin Morales
Michael Bowden
Andrew Miller
Vicente Padilla
Adrian Gonzalez
Dustin Pedroia
Mike Aviles
Nick Punto
Kevin Youkilis
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Kelly Shoppach
Cody Ross
Jacoby Ellsbury
Ryan Sweeney
Darnell McDonald
David Ortiz

A few of these players will require roster moves if they make the Opening Day roster, which in my opinion will make it even harder for Pedro Ciriaco to sneak on to the Red Sox roster April 5th. If the youngster continues to flash his potential in the Sox’ minor league system he could force the hand of Bobby Valentine at some point in the case of injury or other problems but for now I think he stays in the minors for a while.

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March 15, 2012; Fort Myers, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher

Going into spring training it seemed like the Red Sox and Bobby Valentine would give Daniel Bard every opportunity to become a starter. The decision was made in the offseason when Bard proposed the idea of converting and the thought was the Sox were committed to giving him the fourth spot in the rotation, as long as things didn’t go terribly wrong. Things havent gone “terribly” wrong, yet you get the feeling that Bobby V isn’t so sure about Bard in the rotation. This is what the new Red Sox manager said after Tuesday’s game against the Blue Jays..

“It’s real hard for me to figure, But that’s exactly what I’m looking at or wondering. I don’t think even with his good stuff I can handle his walks.

I agree the walks could be a problem but reading between the lines suggests that Bobby Valentine isn’t convinced that Daniel Bard should be in the rotation and one more bad outing could end the experiment before Bard even throws a regular season pitch. I don’t think that’s the right way to go.

When you take away Bard’s relief appearance earlier this month he has a 2.70 ERA in 10 IP with 5H, 3ER, 6BB, 5K. There’s no question the walks are high, but his WHIP is still just 1.10. If he can maintain that and lower the walks a bit it would be manageable. After all we are talking about a fourth starter that’s thrown a total of 12 2/3 innings this spring, 2 2/3 coming in relief.

He hasn’t had a problem going deep into games, he went five innings in his last start against the Blue Jays. In that start Bard gave up all 3ER in the second inning before settling in to retire 12 of the last 14 he faced. He did walk 3 in that game but in all it wasn’t a terrible start. So why do I get the feeling Bard’s on a VERY short leash?

Truth is I don’t think Bobby V was fond of the idea to begin with, making it that much easier for him to pull the plug. It doesn’t seem rational to give up on Bard after such a small sample size.

If you look at Bard’s career stats there is nothing to suggest that the walks wont go away. In 197 IP for his career, he has given up 76 walks and just 132 hits for a career WHIP of 1.06. His WHIP in ’11 was even better at 0.96. His WHIP of 1.10 in his starts this spring is right on par with those numbers and his 2.70 ERA in those starts is over .60 points lower than his ERA in 2011.

When you look at the numbers, the quotes and analyze the situation thoroughly, you have to wonder if Bobby V is committed to giving Bard “every opportunity to succeed”. I’m not convinced that he is.

What’s your take on this? Everyones opinion differs on the subject of Daniel Bard starting so share yours with us at BoSox Injection.

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Mar. 15, 2012; Surprise, AZ, USA; Texas Rangers batter Adrian Beltre hits an RBI single in the third inning against the Oakland Athletics at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

With the Red Sox more than halfway through spring training, I find myself a little more anxious each day. It’s a yearly occurrence where I find myself constantly thinking baseball in March. This year with the several position battles going on in Red Sox camp I found myself thinking about a specific question. If the Red Sox could get back three active players that they’ve either traded away or let walk via free agency in recent years, who would they be? In this article I will give you the three that I would want back if I were the Red Sox. Feel free to add your opinion or debate me on this.

Hanley Ramirez-Miami Marlins:

Way back in November of 2005 the Red Sox made a trade that is still debated to this day. The Sox traded top prospect Hanley Ramirez along with pitching prospect Anibal Sanchez, Harvey Garcia and Jesus Delgado to the Marlins for Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell, and Guillermo Mota.

Debating the winner of this trade is a task for another day, but what we can’t debate is Hanley Ramirez became a superstar. In the six seasons that Hanley has played 90 or more games these are his career numbers..

.306 BA, .380 OBP, .886 OPS, 134 HR, 434 RBI, and 216 SB

These numbers also include 2011 when Hanley hit just .243/.333/.379 in 92 games while battling injuries for a big part of the season.

I think the general consensus is that Hanley Ramirez will regain his form in ’12 and I agree with this. His track record and the fact that he’s just entering his prime at age 28 suggest that he can return to the player that made him a Batting Champion, Rookie of the Year, and three time All Star, just to name a few. I can say with confidence that Bobby Valentine would love to spell out Hanley’s name each day on his lineup card.

Justin Masterson-Cleveland Indians:

In July of 2009 the Red Sox sent Justin Masterson, Bryan Price and Nick Hagadone to the Cleveland Indians in exchange for Victor Martinez.

At the time of the trade in 2009 Masterson had thrown 72 innings for the Sox with an ERA of 4.50 and a 1.35 WHIP. The Red Sox were leading the wildcard and needed a productive catcher, while the Indians’ General Manager Mark Shapiro was trading away his team for the future. The deal made sense for both sides at the time. The Red Sox knew that the groundball inducing righty had potential but it wasn’t clear if he would end up a starter or a reliever.. He ended up a starter and a pretty good one to boot.

In 2011 with the Indians he compiled a 3.21 ERA in 216 IP and was recently named the Opening Day starter for 2012. The best part for the Indians? Masterson is under team control until the end of the 2014 season. Does anyone else think the Red Sox would be happy to have him filling out the fourth spot (maybe even the third) in the rotation this year? Especially since the player they received in V-Mart is long gone.

Adrian Beltre-Texas Rangers:

In January of 2010 the Red Sox made a move for a player coming off of a dismal season with the Mariners that saw him put up a .265/.304/.379 slash line. The deal was 1 year/$10 million with a player option for ’11.

The Sox thought Beltre’s right handed swing had potential to do some damage at Fenway Park, they were right and at $10 million this was an absolute steal.

All Beltre would do in ’10 with Boston is put up a .321/.365/.553 slash line with 28 HR and 102 RBI.

During the 2010 season, Theo Epstein had stated several times that it was a high priority to sign Beltre to a new deal but he never made a substantial offer. The Texas Rangers on the other hand gave him a guaranteed five year/$80 million deal with a vesting option for a sixth year. (depending on his plate appearances in ’14/’15)

Now I realize that’s a lot of money and the Sox have Will Middlebrooks waiting in the wings, but the point of this is just to point out who the Sox would love to have back for the 2012 season. The way that Kevin Youkilis looked most of 2011, I think it’s safe to say that Beltre would be a major upgrade at the hot corner.

(2011 Stats–124 GP, .296/.331/.561 with 32 HR, 105 RBI)

The Red Sox actually haven’t made an abundant number of foolish trades in recent years, as a matter of fact the Han-Ram trade made sense and it’s still debatable who got the best of the deal. The Masterson-Martinez deal made sense at the time as well but now that V-Mart is gone for good and Masterson has turned into an ace under team control for three seasons, it looks more lopsided than ever.

Letting Adrian Beltre walk via free agency was probably best for the future considering the cash it would have taken to sign him and the Sox’ top prospect according to most is third baseman Will Middlebrooks. With Middlebrooks likely to spend 2012 in Pawtucket and uncertainty regarding Youk’s health, Beltre at the hot corner would likely be a substantial upgrade.

Is there somebody I didn’t include that you would want back if you were the Red Sox? Feel free to let us know in the comments section. Posting is painless and easy so let’s talk baseball.

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Will Youks’ health break down again?

Crawford will likely miss Opening Day

Can Closer Bailey’s Arm  Last a Whole Season?

Can Bard Switch to Starter Role?

During Spring Training, our pent up excitement and expectation, all that tension that built up during the long “Not-Baseball Season” releases; we over-react like over-wound springs.

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Dec 7, 2011; Dallas, TX, USA; Boston Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine answers question for a press conference during the MLB winter meetings at Hilton Anatole. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-US PRESSWIRE

Bobby Valentine arrived at the new Red Sox Spring training complex in Fort Myers and, in an interview with WEEI’s Alex Speier, offered a few observations on the state of the team  Here are a few highlights:

COMPETITION FOR POSITIONS:  SS, RF, ROTATION, PEN

“As far as positions, we have a vacancy at shortstop, we have a vacancy in right field. Right now, [Carl Crawford]’s health is of question for maybe Opening Day anyway – for opening day of Spring Training. We’ll deal with left field. You know a couple of spots in our starting rotation and our bullpen has open spots also. If you mean just the personnel, those are the questions that need answers. The general idea of all the things coming together need to be answered.”

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It’s time once again to play “Red Sox Cheapo Fifth Starter” Fill-In-The-Blanks game…again…ready? Start!

The Boston — — signed [RHP, Ross Ohlendorf] to a minor league ——– ; he will compete in Spring —— for the – th slot in the Red Sox ——– .

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Spring training hasn’t even officially begun and already there are some Red Sox players who are grumbling about the type of training regime that new manager Bobby Valentine is enforcing at this year’s camp.  His demanding style and rigorous workouts are designed to push his players  to their limits and get the most out of them.  After last season, this is exactly what the doctor ordered.

Gone are the days of Terry Francona and the lax spring training of going through the motions.  While that served its purpose and was successful for six years, it eventually ran it’s course and as a result, Tito lost the room.

Some tough love was needed for this group of grown men who tainted the Red Sox organization last season.  Bobby Valentine is just the man to deliver that type of medicine.

“When I look at the program we devised, I don’t think of it as tough. But it seems it’s different because a lot of people are frowning. I just asked them to give (it) a few days. We all know that no one likes change except for those who are making other people change of what that person want them to. I happen to be one of those guys who likes change because guys are doing what I want them to do. I would bet there will be 100 guys who won’t really like it because it’s change for them. But they’ll get used to it.” – courtesy of the Boston Globe.

Valentine is a bit of old school in case you hadn’t noticed.  He likes the length of spring training and says that if anyone thinks its too long that it’s baloney.  In fact, Valentine wants to move the two exhibition games against Northeastern and Boston College from seven inning games to nine innings.  He also would like to add two more exhibition games to the Red Sox preseason schedule.

“The more we see (the pitchers) the easier it’s going to be for us to know what we have.”

Can’t argue with the man there and Clay Buchholz happens to agree with his new skipper.

“Sometimes when you veer off the path that you need to take, you need someone there to tell you, ‘Hey this is where we need to go and I see you doing this,’” – courtesy of the Boston Herald.

So let the cynics grumble and moan about having to exert a little extra effort.  This new training regime will be good for everyone involved and because of it the Red Sox should come out of camp in tip top shape.  Something that could help prevent injuries down the road leading to a healthier, more productive Red Sox team.  And that would be a good thing.

For all the latest news and analysis from BoSox Injection, follow us on Twitter, Facebook, or with our RSS feed

It’s here.  It is finally here! The day that represents the unofficial start of Spring Training.  I’m talking about TRUCK DAY BABY!

Every Red Sox fan circles this day on their calendar and we sit quietly, eagerly anticipating it’s arrival.  Like a kid waiting for Christmas, Truck Day has become a tradition amongst Red Sox Nation.  The day the equipment truck leaves Fenway Park and ventures on a long trip to Fort Myers, the site of the Red Sox Spring Training.

Not only does it mean that spring training is a week away, but it signifies the start of a new beginning.  A new era is about to launch for the Boston Red Sox. Call it what you want, the Bobby V era, the Cherington era, the post September era, whatever you want.  Just know that this is a new beginning and things will be different this year.

Papelbon, Varitek, Scutaro, Reddick, and Lowrie are gone.  Ross, Sweeney, Melancon, Punto and Bailey are in.  It’s a new dynamic with an underdog role for this club and I welcome and embrace the changes.

Pitchers and catchers report in seven days, but today is Truck Day.  The unofficial, official start to the new 2012 year.  Let’s go Red Sox, let’s go.

It’s too bad that Truck Day wasn’t during the week.  I think it’s fair to say that this would become a Nation’s holiday.

For all the latest news and analysis from BoSox Injection, follow us on Twitter, Facebook, or with our RSS feed.

Since he has not returned my call yet, I can neither confirm, nor deny the spurious viral rumor that he will be returning to Boston as DH and right fielder. Wasn’t it Aristotle who said: “He who hath Manny friends hath none.”? Didn’t Shakespeare write: “Cowards die Manny times before their deaths.”? One quote, definitely applies to Ramirez: “If it weren’t for baseball, Manny kids wouldn’t know what a millionaire looked like.” Phyllis Diller said that.

Q: How would the Red Sox Nation vote on whether to bring Manny back to Fenway?
[comments welcome at the bottom]

With many Tweets on which players teams WANT, there are now Tweets and Re-Tweets about the many teams that do NOT WANT Manny: (more…)