Boston Red Sox: Who is the No. 3 starter in the postseason rotation?
By Sean Penney
The Boston Red Sox have a solid one-two punch leading their rotation, but there are still questions about who fills the No. 3 spot when the playoffs begin.
The Boston Red Sox hold a three game lead in the AL East with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season, making it increasingly likely that they will qualify for the postseason. The pitching staff has been outstanding overall in the second half, yet questions still remain about how the starting rotation will line up in the playoffs.
If the Red Sox make it to the American League Division Series then we can expect David Price and Rick Porcello to start the first two games, with the only debate being which order they appear in.
Price has the superior track record and was paid a mountain of money to come here to be “the guy” to anchor this rotation. He is back on track after a rough start to his tenure in Boston to become the ace the Red Sox expected him to be.
Not that you could go wrong with a 20-game winner in Porcello either. If the Red Sox were to let the division crown slip away and settle for a one-game Wild Card playoff, a solid case could be made to start Porcello if the game were to be played in Fenway, given his dominance at home this season.
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The order that those two appear in may depend on match-ups and setting, but the Red Sox can feel comfortable deploying either of them in a postseason game. After that, it gets messy. The playoff schedule could allow the Red Sox to get away with using only three starters in the ALDS, but there’s no obvious choice to start Game 3.
The Red Sox are still holding out hope that Steven Wright can fill that role, but time is running out on his potential return. The knuckleballer is down in Ft. Myers working on a throwing program as he continues to rehab from a shoulder injury that has sidelined him since the end of August.
If Wright can return to the All-Star form he showcased before the injury then he’ll give the Red Sox a formidable trio heading into the postseason, but at this point there is too much uncertainty regarding his status to assume we can rely on him.
If his shoulder prevents him from taking the mound, perhaps Wright can still be used off the bench as a pinch-runner. Wait, let’s not give John Farrell any ideas.
If Wright can’t go in October it leaves the Red Sox with three options to start Game 3, none of whom fans will be thrilled to rely on.
When the Red Sox traded their top pitching prospect to the San Diego Padres they did so under the impression that they were acquiring a starter that could take the mound when games matter most. Unfortunately the last couple of starts from Drew Pomeranz haven’t elicited much hope that he can be relied upon to start a playoff game.
Pomeranz has lasted a total of 5 2/3 innings over his last two starts, allowing nine earned runs in the process. Lack of control has derailed these recent outings, which could be a sign that his workload could be wearing on him, as he’s far surpassed his career-high in innings pitched.
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After an All-Star first half with the Padres, Pomeranz has produced a disappointing 4.91 ERA in 12 starts for the Red Sox. The lefty insists that his struggles aren’t related to fatigue, in which case there may be a chance that he can settle back into a groove heading into the postseason. He did recover from a rocky start following the mid-season trade that brought him to Boston to post a 2.70 ERA in six August starts, so if he’s telling the truth about his arm not running out of gas, there is always the chance he has a similar run left in him.
If the Red Sox turn to Pomeranz for a start then they better hope Game 3 is on the road. Most of the damage done against Pomeranz since the trade has come at home, where he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA. Compare that to the 3.53 ERA he has on the road as a member of the Red Sox and the solution may be as simple as having him avoid Fenway Park.
If the game ends up being played at Fenway, don’t assume that Eduardo Rodriguez is a better option. He’s 0-4 with a 6.10 ERA at home this season and failed to make it out of the third inning the last time he took the mound at Fenway. E-Rod has shown flashes of brilliance since returning from injury, but these results remain mixed with the meltdowns that have contributed to a frustrating sophomore campaign. The Red Sox still believe he has a bright future, but are they ready to trust him in a playoff game?
With the Red Sox likely to be tepid about using either of those lefties, is their best remaining option to roll the dice with Clay Buchholz? The idea was unfathomable a few weeks ago, but let’s not brush it aside too swiftly.
Buchholz looked like a lost cause by mid-season, but a move to the bullpen forced him to make some adjustments that have revitalized his career. He took this new approach with him when he returned to the rotation and the results have been (mostly) positive. Buchholz has lasted at least six innings and allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts.
Also working in his favor is that Buchholz is the only one of these three pitchers to ever pitch in a playoff game. His career 4.21 ERA in the postseason isn’t exactly inspiring, but at least he’s been on this stage before.
He’s still prone to the occasional disaster, but Buchholz has the talent to deliver a solid start any time he takes the mound. It all depends on his frame of mind, but if he finishes the season strong then it improves the chances that his fragile psyche will be prepared for the playoffs.
If Pomeranz has anything left in the tank by the time we get to October then he should get consideration if the game is on the road, but if Game 3 is at Fenway then Buchhholz appears to be the best option.
Next: Bullpen shining at perfect time
No, Red Sox Nation won’t feel good about entrusting their championship hopes to either of these unreliable options, but it’s not as if we are overflowing with other options. Pick your poison and have the bullpen ready, all while keeping your fingers crossed that Wright makes it back before Farrell is forced to make this unenviable decision.