Down 2-1, Tigers Face “Must Win” in Game 4
By Earl Nash
With the Sox leading the ALCS series 2 games to 1, Game Four [8 ET, FOX] becomes a customary “must win” game for the Tigers and manager Jim Leyland will send his #5 starter Doug Fister (14-9, 3.67) against Sox #4 starter Jake Peavy (12-5, 4.17).
Thus far, the series has been remarkable: the two most productive offensive teams in the AL have been stymied by each other’s pitchers. All 3 games have been decided by a single run [6-5, 1-0, 1-0) with the Sox scoring just 7 runs and the Tigers only 6 runs.
The Tigers are averaging 2.00 runs per game in the ALCS, well below their season average of 4.91, while the Sox are averaging 2.33 runs per game, well below their season average of 5.27.
“This series has been marked by very good pitching on both sides,” Boston manager John Farrell said.
The teams are so well-matched that the slightest mistake can turn a game; Verlander missed his location on one pitch; it was on a full-count; his 96-mph fastball caught too much of the hitting zone and Napoli took full advantage and put the barrel right on the ball in that pivotal seventh inning.
This chart demonstrates the futility of the Sox batters:
RK
Player
Team
Pos
G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
AVG▼
OBP
SLG
OPS
1
BOSLF130100001200.333.500.333.8332
BOSLF271200000500.286.286.286.5713
BOS2B3101210012400.200.333.300.6334
BOS3B381110000300.125.125.250.3754
BOS1B381100111600.125.222.500.7224
BOSC380100010400.125.125.125.2507
BOSSS390100001400.111.200.111.3118
BOSCF3101100002400.100.250.100.3508
BOSDH3101100142400.100.250.400.65010
BOSRF3111100000510.091.167.091.25811
BOSSS110000000000.000.000.000.00011
BOSLF240000000200.000.000.000.00011
BOSC110000001000.000.500.000.50014
BOSCF100000000010–––.000
Nava [3 ABs] leads in BA with .333; Gomes [7ABs] .28 and then the starters fall below the infamous “Mendoza Line.” Napoli [1 for 8] has 1 of the 2 Sox HRs and Ortiz [1 for 10] has the famous Grand Slam in Game Two that was nearly caught by Torri Hunter’s intrepid headlong leap over the Sox bullpen fence.
Detroit’s batters have been just as baffled, as this chart indicates:
Next Stats
RK
Player
Team
Pos
G
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
CS
AVG▼
OBP
SLG
OPS
1
DETSS3120530010000.417.417.6671.0832
DETDH3112420010000.364.417.545.9623
DETC3101300132300.300.417.6001.0174
DET1B3111310001300.273.385.364.7485
DETSS340100000100.250.400.250.6506
DETRF3140310000400.214.214.286.5007
DET3B3112200111300.182.250.455.7058
DET2B3100100001300.100.182.100.2829
DETCF3130100001500.077.143.077.22010
DETLF120000000100.000.000.000.00010
DETLF340000001200.000.200.000.20012
DET2B100000000000–––.00012
DET2B100000000000–––.000
Peralta is the leading hitter at .417, followed by Martinez [.364] and emerging All-Star catcher, Alex Avila has 1 of the 2 Tiger HRs and is hitting .300. Fielder is batting .273, but has yet to hit a HR or record and RBI and Miggy has 1 HR and 1 RBI, but is hitting a paltry .182.
Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan explains why Uehara has been so effective this season and especially in the ALCS against Tiger batters:
“For the record, this year, in 1-and-2 counts, Uehara has thrown 62% splitters. In 2-and-1 counts, he’s thrown 47% splitters. He’s thrown a far greater rate of 2-and-1 pitches in the zone than 1-and-2 pitches.
It also stands to reason hitters would be less defensive at 2-and-1 than 1-and-2, when they feel like they have to expand and protect.
That plays into Uehara’s strength. That plays into every pitcher’s strength, but Uehara in particular has a terrifying breaking ball that’s downright lethal when there are two strikes on the board.” [http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-one-little-call-helped-the-red-sox-beat-the-tigers/]
Peavy got a no decision in his only Post-season start in the game the Sox won 3-1 against Tampa that moved them into the ALCS.
Peavy turned in a solid performance: 5 hits, 1 run, 5 2/3 innings. He walked none, K’d 3 with 74 pitches.
It was the crucial game and Farrell had a quick hook, when the Rays scored a run in the 6th; in are regular season game, Peavy would have remained in the game longer.
“Jake, on a normal situation, we’re probably having a fist fight on the mound right there,” said Farrell. “Our starters recognize the time of the year it is, the importance of every out, the importance of every matchup.”
2013 POSTSEASON STATS SUMMARY
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
SHO
SV
SVO
IP
H
R
ER
HR
HB
BB
SO
AVG
WHIP
GO/AO
DS00
1.59
11 0 0 0 05.25110003
.250
0.88
1.00
Peavy’s track record against Detroit batters is scant:
PLAYER
SEASON
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
IBB
SO
SB
CS
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
2013300000000200.000.000.000.000
2013300000000100.000.000.000.000
2013301000100010.333.333.333.667
2013311001200100.333.3331.3331.667
2013311000000000.333.333.333.667
2013200000010200.000.333.000.333
2013311001100100.333.3331.3331.667
2013211001110000.500.6672.0002.667
2013300000000000.000.000.000.000
2013200000000000.000.000.000.000TOTAL20132745003520710.185.241.519.760
Hunter and V-Mart have the most success, both .333 and a HR, but there’s not much to glean from the small sample of ABs.
Doug Fister’s Post-season stats are less impressive:
2013 POSTSEASON STATS SUMMARY
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
SHO
SV
SVO
IP
H
R
ER
HR
HB
BB
SO
AVG
WHIP
GO/AO
DS004.501100006.07331011.2921.332.20TOTALS004.501100006.07331011.2921.332.20
His season totals are impressive:
DOUG FISTER STATS SUMMARY
W
L
ERA
G
GS
CG
SHO
SV
SVO
IP
H
R
ER
HR
HB
BB
IBB
SO
AVG
WHIP
GO/AO
SEASON1493.6733321000208.222991851416442159.2811.311.53MLB Totals44503.531301276100818.282835432164431657571.2611.211.29
Against Sox batters:
PLAYER
SEASON
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
IBB
SO
SB
CS
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
2013511000000100.200.200.200.400
2013522100210100.400.500.6001.100
2013300000000000.000.000.000.000
2013211000000000.500.500.5001.000
2013301000000000.333.333.333.667
2013301000020100.333.600.333.933
2013402100010000.500.600.7501.350
2013400000011000.000.200.000.200
2013602000100000.333.333.333.667
2013511000000100.200.200.200.400
2013514001300000.800.8331.4002.233TOTAL201345615201651400.333.412.444.856
Victorino in 5 ABs hit .800, 1 HR, 3 RBI, but Big Papi is 0 for 4 in this small sample.
Facing a “must win” game, Leyland will be more likely to use the fast hook at the first sign of trouble and hope that his pen can get the ball to his nerve-wracking closer, Benoit “Balls,” who will send Leyland to the tunnel with a pack of smokes in his trembling hands.
Detroit ace Justin Verlander’s lone slipup on Tuesday was a missed location on a full-count, 96-mph fastball to Red Sox first baseman Mike Napoli in the seventh inning.
Ballgame, as it turned out, because the stellar work of Red Sox starter John Lackey (6 2/3 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and no walks) and Boston relievers Craig Breslow, Junichi Tazawa and Koji Uehara was enough to make it hold up.
If the Tigers win, it’s an even series and everyone will use the old cliché: “Well, it’s a 2 out of 3 series now…”
"If the Sox win and go up 3-1, needing only to win 1 game in 3, with the last 2 at Fenway, the pundits will roll out “backs to the wall” and recite stats about teams that came all the way back from large deficits, even from 0-3, like the Sox did in 2004.No baseball team had ever been down three games to none in the playoffs and come back to win."
“There have been many other amazing, unexpected baseball results historically, but the Red Sox miracle is at the top.” gushed Bleacher Report’s Harold Friend.
[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/723993-baseballs-greatest-miracle-the-2004-red-sox-comeback-against-the-new-york-yank] MORE BELOW
For “unexpected” successes in baseball history, put me down, chronologically, for the Red Sox 1967 “Impossible Dream,” the “Miracle Mets” 1969 season and Post-season, and the “Worst-to-First” 2013 Red Sox season.
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“The sample size is limited since the best of seven format wasn’t introduced until 1985, but no team trailing in the World Series by three games has ever won it either.
A disclaimer is necessary because a team’s opponent in the World Series is usually, or should be assumed to be, a better team that a playoff opponent.
The Yankees scored 32 runs in winning the first three games against the Red Sox. They scored 19 runs in the third game. The Red Sox were dead.
Trailing 4-3 going to the bottom of the ninth inning of the fourth game, the Sox had to score of the greatest closer in baseball history, Mariano Rivera.
Rivera uncharacteristically walked leadoff batter Kevin Millar. Dave Roberts ran for him and, on a key play, stole second. Bill Mueller singled home Roberts to tie the game.
Doug Mientkiewicz sacrificed Mueller to second, who moved to third when Johnny Damon reached first on a Tony Clark error, but it was Mariano Rivera pitching. Mueller never touched home plate.
In the bottom of the twelfth inning, David Ortiz hit a two-run home run off Paul Quantrill to win the game. The Yankees, not the Red Sox, were dead.”
[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/723993-baseballs-greatest-miracle-the-2004-red-sox-comeback-against-the-new-york-yank]