Sox should take Lefty College Pitcher #7; HS catcher #45 in MLB Draft

Most experts predict that the Red Sox will use their #7 pick to grab a High School OF: Austin Meadows or Clint Frazier in the 2013 MLB draft.

But, is taking a “toolsy” high-ceiling/high-risk, long-shot, 18 year-old High School position player their best move?

Meadows:

“Easy first round pick and potential middle of the order batting average and power threat,” says Baseball Prospect Nation. [See full report end of post.]

Frazier:

“Scouts absolutely love Frazier’s raw power and his already well-developed plate discipline.

He hit 24 home runs as a junior and followed up with 17 home runs and 45 RBI this spring, along with a .485 batting average.

His skill set is off the charts for a prep player of just 18 years of age, and he’s the right choice and the best athlete available for the Boston Red Sox with the seventh pick.”

[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1659070-2013-mlb-mock-draft-complete-first-round-projections/page/8]

[See full report end of post.]

Assuming that the teams with the #1 through #6 slots will have already taken Stanford RHP Mark Appel, Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray, St. Pius X (HS) RHP Kohl Stewart, Nevada RHP Braden Shipley, San Diego St. 3B Kris Bryant, and North Carolina 3B Colin Moran…

"Why not go for a more projectable college player?"

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<FLASH >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Oklahoma Sooner pitcher Jonathan Gray has tested positive for Adderall at a pre-draft screening. The news comes from Keith Law of ESPN.

As Law points out, Gray is widely regarded as the No. 2 overall prospect in the upcoming MLB draft, which makes this news all the more alarming. He did not have a prescription for the drug.

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In 1984, Bill James analyzed the relative value of High School and College players who were picked in the MLB drafts from 1965 to 1983 and his data showed that college players produced 84% more position-adjusted value than High School players, especially in the first round.

A SABR analysis of the 2002-2005 draft outcomes showed that H.S. pitchers posted a 0.76 WAR averages than college pitchers 0.52 WAR averages.

[http://sabr.org/sites/default/files/Wachter_Douglas-Investigating_MLB_Draft_Outcomes-2012_Jack_Kavanagh_Award.pdf]

Oakland’s “Moneyball” method favors drafting more proven, experienced college players in the draft; as a result the A’s are loaded with good young pitching, and their last four first-round picks — Jemile Weeks, Grant Green, Michael Choice and Sonny Gray — have a chance to be significant contributors.

"2013 MLB draft…June 6-8; Day 1: Round 1 and 2…Day 2: 3- 10…Day 3: 11-40."

Excluding the H.S. prospects, the Draft Touts would expect that the Red Sox would go after three college OFs, or a college pitcher:

Mississippi State OF, Hunter Renfroe

“Loaded with tools, including plus power, speed, arm strength and defense, Renfroe profiles as a center fielder. He doesn’t have the best track record, which could be a red flag or a sign he just found his skills later than a lot of first-round SEC talents.”

[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1656249-2013-mlb-mock-draft-identifying-every-mlb-teams-biggest-first-round-need/page/11]

There are concerns that he may be a One-season Wonder.

[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1658395-top-2013-mlb-draft-prospects-with-the-most-severe-red-flags/page/4]

Stanford OF, Austin Wilson

“higher probability, solid athleticism, plus-plus power potential and corner outfield profile.”

[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1656249-2013-mlb-mock-draft-identifying-every-mlb-teams-biggest-first-round-need/page/12]

Fresno State OF, Aaron Judge

“Why not pick the tallest player in the draft? Judge has huge power potential thanks to his size, bat speed and a quick path through the zone. He does have some length to his swing and his height makes him vulnerable to pitches low in the zone, so he won’t hit for a high average. “

[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1656249-2013-mlb-mock-draft-identifying-every-mlb-teams-biggest-first-round-need/page/12]

Arkansas RHP, Ryne Stanek

“his stuff and delivery would play well in a relief role, possibly at the end of games to get this team away from the home-run act that is Heath Bell, and Stanek could get to the big leagues in less than a year in that role.

The other reason to like him is that while he can start out pitching in relief, Stanek can be groomed for the rotation in 2015-16. He has to get more consistent command and feel for the slider, but his arsenal, frame and delivery show he has what it takes to handle a starter’s workload.”

[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1656249-2013-mlb-mock-draft-identifying-every-mlb-teams-biggest-first-round-need/page/16]

Our dark horse pick for the Sox #7 slot is a LHP from Spokane, Washington:

"Marco Gonzales from Gonzaga University."

Scouts say he has a high probability of making it to MLB with a “low ceiling,” which translates to a #4/5 starter or situational lefty out of the pen.  His fastball (87-90 mph) is on the bubble, but he has a terrific change-up and scouts like his pitchability, great sequencing, command, feel and the ability to keep hitters off balance.

One of the final three candidates for John Olerud Award, given to college baseball’s top two-way player.Last year, he was also the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association District IX Player of the Year and the year prior, he earned Freshman of the Year honors.

Last year, he was on a Team USA Baseball squad that played in Cuba and the Netherlands and was named as the Most Valuable Pitcher during the Netherlands series.

• John Sickels, Minor League Ball: “His fastball is average in terms of velocity at 88-92 MPH, but his command of the heater is excellent. He also has a superior changeup, possibly the best in the college ranks. His curveball and slider aren’t as good as the changeup, but they are workable, and the entire arsenal plays up due to his command and clean, consistent delivery. “
• Baseball America: “He’s getting drafted for his changeup, the best in this year’s class. It’s a deceptive offering with fade and scouts have no problem grading it as a 70 pitch on the 20-80 scale…With his frame, stuff and athleticism he has earned comparisons to Jason Vargas.”
• Jason Cole Baseball Prospectus: “Hitters didn’t appear to see Gonzales’ stuff out of the hand very well–particularly his fastball and plus 77-80 mph changeup. They were late to react and generally off-balance all afternoon. His highly deceptive changeup is a least a 60-grade pitch with good fading action; he had some serious confidence in the offering.”

He projects to start at AA and move quickly to MLB in 2014. [See full report end of post.]

"What should the Sox do with their second pick in the #45 slot?"

With Salty on the block and aging veterans David Ross and Napoli as a back-up for 2013, the Sox can hope that Lavarnway will find his hitting groove and switch-hitting Blake Swihart may be ready in 2015.  [See full report end of post.]

But, there is a sleeper in this year’s draft at this critical position:

"Reese McGuire, Kenwood H.S., Kent, Washington."

Baseball Prospect Nation rates him the “Top catcher in the draft with an advanced defensive profile and some offensive promise. [See full report end of post.]

Mike Rosenbaum at Bleacher Report sees him going in the Top Ten:

“In a draft class that’s thin on catching prospects, Reese McGuire stands out for his advanced defense and near-elite arm strength.

Presumably a lock to remain behind the plate, the 6’1”, 190-pound backstop has opened eyes this spring with a smoother swing and improved power frequency and has seen his draft stock soar as a result.

Given his athleticism and defensive prowess, McGuire is best compared to the Nationals’ Kurt Suzuki, though he’s expected to offer more with the bat at the next level.

Although he’ll need considerable time to develop in the minor leagues, McGuire has the ceiling of an All-Star and Gold Glove-caliber backstop in his prime.”

If McGuire is taken by the Pirates in Round One, the Sox might still be able to grab another HS catcher, Jon Denney, who has impressed the experts:

“The 2013 MLB Draft has a deep class of high school catchers,but Jon Denney is considered one of the best, especially at the plate. Denney has enough talent offensively to move off catcher if he can’t cut it defensively — scouts think that he has the highest offensive ceiling of all the high school catchers.”

[http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/6/3/4387930/mlb-draft-2013-prospect-jon-denney-scouting-report]

Here’s the latest predictions from leading experts:

Bleacher Report’s Adam Wells: HS OF Clint Frazier.

ESPN’s Keith Law: Arkansas right-hander Ryne Stanek.

MLB Draft Insider’s Chris Crawford: Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley.

Minor League Ball’s Matt Garrioch: HS RHP Kohl Stewart.

"Who do YOU think the Sox should take with their #7 pick???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Where: Studio 42 in Secaucus, N.J.When: Thursday, June 6 – Saturday, June 8Watch: MLB Network (Thursday)Live Stream: MLB.com (All days) Daily ScheduleDateTime (ET)RoundsJune 67 p.m.1-2June 71 p.m.3-10June 81 p.m.11-40 Round 1 OrderPickTeam1Houston Astros2Chicago Cubs3Colorado Rockies4Minnesota Twins5Cleveland Indians6Miami Marlins7Boston Red Sox8Kansas City Royals9Pittsburgh Pirates10Toronto Blue Jays11New York Mets12Seattle Mariners13San Diego Padres14Pittsburgh Pirates15Arizona Diamondbacks16Philadelphia Phillies17Chicago White Sox18Los Angeles Dodgers19St. Louis Cardinals20Detroit Tigers21Tampa Bay Rays22Baltimore Orioles23Texas Rangers24Oakland Athletics25San Francisco Giants26New York Yankees27Cincinnati Reds28*St. Louis Cardinals29*Tampa Bay Rays30*Texas Rangers31*Atlanta Braves32*New York Yankees33*New York Yankees*Denotes compensatory selection. Order via MLB.com."

TOP 100 PROSPECTS RANKING:

[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1659577-mlb-draft-2013-ranking-the-top-100-prospects]

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Scouting Report: Austin Meadows (OF)

Easy first round pick and potential middle of the order batting average and power threat.

The Player: Austin Meadows (OF, Grayson High School) – One of the country’s elite high school players. Hit .390 with 10 doubles, four home runs and 19 steals as a junior. Heading into the National High School Invitational, Meadows was hitting .571 with three home runs this spring. He is committed to Clemson.

Basis of Report: Compilation – Industry Contacts

Scouting Report
Body (6-3, 215): Very well built. Physically mature at a young age. Added muscle mass in the last year. Has potential to continue growing and adding muscle. Questions about where the body goes from here and whether his build takes on that of a classic slugger rather than a fast-twitch athlete.
Hit: Very balanced from setup through swing completion. Rarely finds himself out front of pitches thanks to good pitch recognition and plate discipline for his age/level. Has potential to continue developing pitch rec and discipline at higher levels. Hands work well. Plus bat speed. Can go the other way but rarely does so at this time. Swing can get a little long but has bat speed to make up for it. Good present leverage with some lift to the swing, allowing for over-the-fence projection. Quality overall hitter with potential for plus grades at peak but will need multiple grade jumps to get there. Grade – 40/60
Power: Easy raw. Ball explodes off his bat, particularly to the pull side. Has strength and bat speed to generate quality raw to the opposite field but lacks trust in hands to drive it that way with authority. Will crank when he turns on it. Has solid hit utility and plate discipline, giving projection for raw power to become game power. Physical maturity could cause grade jump in ultimate power ceiling. Easy plus projection now with reasonable chance to reach that ceiling with hit tool maturity. Grade (raw power) – 50/60
Arm: Average raw arm strength. Throwing motion can get a little deliberate from the outfield. Developmental staff may be able to coax a half tick more out of the arm with work on consistent mechanics and using his momentum to his advantage. Arm is playable in center or left field. Grade – 50/50
Fielding: Good feel for center field. Gets quality jumps and typically makes the correct break on the ball. Routes are good with frequent straight lines and few bad angles on balls in the gaps. Has present speed to handle center field but may slow with additional physical maturity and may be forced to left field long term. Doesn’t look the part of an up-the-middle player. Should be at least average defender long term, maybe a touch better; particularly on a corner. Grade – 50/50
Speed: Shows occasional plus-plus home to first times but not consistent. More of a plus runner in bursts and can show 70-grade speed once underway in the outfield. Already physically mature and likely to continue growing a bit as he reaches his physical peak, hinting at speed loss down the line. More likely an average runner at big league peak. Grade – 60/50

Summation: Massive raw talent. Very impressive physically with a good feel for the game as well. Excellent athlete with some quick-twitch tendencies. Body is already very mature and could move him out of the middle of the diamond long term. Athleticism will still play even if he bulks up more. Solid hitter with a good approach for his age. Good aptitude and a quick learner in the box; should have quality hit tool utility that allows plus raw power to translate to games. Potential .280+ hitter with 25 home runs from the middle of the order. Likely a left fielder long term but should be a solid defensive asset with an average arm. Potential All-Star caliber player if he maximizes the offensive tools.

Relative Risk: High. Likely LF profile puts pressure on the bat right out of the gate, but offensive potential is considerable.

Draft Projection: Easy first round pick with Top 10 aspirations. Has the offensive profile of a legit top of the round player. Not a true 1-1 candidate for me but a potential guy in the 4-8 range. A team that believes in his ability to stay up the middle could be more aggressive.

[http://baseballprospectnation.com/2013/04/16/scouting-report-austin-meadows-of/#more-1524]

Why Meadows has helium

On the position player side, Austin Meadows has more raw tools than any high school player in this year’s draft. Of course, he probably comes with as much risk, if not more, than the other top players in the class.

Meadows plays the game with such a laid-back approach that there can be a perception that he is not into what happens. That isn’t the case at all, as he is just so smooth in the batters box that he can get away with it.

With the bat, Meadows does show very good bat speed and raw power potential in a very good, athletic 6’3″, 200-pound frame. His swing doesn’t produce the kind of in-game pop you want to see because he attacks with more of a line-drive swing than one that will put the ball over the fence.

Eventually Meadows will find his home run swing and bring that plus power into games. He is also a plus runner with range and instincts for center field. His throwing arm is decent, but nothing really special.

On a great day, Meadows looks like a four-tool player at a premium position. On a mediocre day, he may have questions about his hit and power tools, as well as his ability to stay in center field, that push him, slightly, down some draft boards.  [http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1660163-2013-mlb-draft-predictions-which-prospects-have-highest-ceiling/page/4]

Scouting Report: Clint Frazier (OF)

Posted on 26 April 2013 by Mark A.

BLUF: Top player in the draft has elite raw power and plenty of other tools.

The Player: Clint Frazier (OF, Loganville High School) – Hit .424 with 24 home runs, 55 runs scored, 58 RBI, 14 steals and 31 walks as a junior in 2012. Broke Brandon Moss’ single season school record for RBI and home runs and also set the school mark for runs scored. Already owns the career home run mark at Loganville and has almost doubled Moss’ previous school best. As of April 8th, Frazier was hitting .561 with 11 home runs so far this season.

Basis of Report: Compilation – Industry Contacts

Scouting Report
Body (6-1, 190): Nearly physically mature but still has some physical projection remaining. Lean and strong. Well built; ripped. Very athletic. Fast twitch guy. Tremendous body and athleticism.
Hit: Elite bat speed. Exaggerated weight shift onto the back leg as part of trigger. High hands that shift back during load. Exceptional bat speed overcomes quirks in setup and attack. Makes up for minor mistakes early in process. Bat speed allows for late decisions but mind is often made up. Likes to swing early and often. Attacking approach. Needs to develop better concept of the strike zone to find pitches he can attack. Plate coverage is not ideal but crushes what he can get to. Lack of coverage and aggressive approach will lead to plenty of swing and miss but ultimately it won’t hinder his game. Raw hitter that needs to use the opposite field better. Very pull conscious now. Would be exploited by advanced pitchers and better breaking balls right now and may need multi-grade jump to reach average hit projection. I’m light on present ability to hit but optimistic about future potential. Grade – 30/50
Power: Best raw power in the draft. Elite bat speed and impressive natural strength lead to mammoth shots. Shows off in BP and can already translate to games against inferior pitching. 80 raw to pull side. Has strength and bat speed to show similar raw to opposite field but doesn’t trust hands and tries to pull stuff he should drive the other way. Raw plays down slightly as a result right now. Extremely consistent getting to the zone and can barrel pitches in the upper 2/3 of the strike zone. Lacks ability to go down and get it and drive it. Has good leverage at contact, hitting off a staunch front leg. Lift in the second half of the swing helps him drive it out of the park. Huge raw power that could translate to 40+ home runs at peak. Hit tool should be good enough for 80-raw to come out in games down the line. Grade (raw power) – 70/80
Arm: Good raw arm strength from outfield. Uses momentum well to get a little extra on throws. Doesn’t always follow through in OF and some throws can sail on him. When he finishes the throw, they are low and on a line with good velocity and carry. Easy plus arm that will support any outfield position. Grade – 60/60
Fielding: New to OF. Previously played SS and 3B. Not an instinctual OF defender. Reads and initial jump can be slightly delayed. Routes are typically good but he will get caught on hard hit balls to the gap and some hard ones right at him can give him trouble as well. Seems to be learning quickly. May not have the chops for CF long term but it is worth a shot. Fits in RF very well because of arm strength and athleticism. Should be average defender at least. Grade could jump with more repetition and pro instruction. Grade – 40/50
Speed: Shows 70-grade 60-yard times and 65/70 home to first times pretty consistently. High effort runner that gets after it on every play. Physical maturity will lead to some loss of speed but he will still be a plus runner. Should be an asset on the bases once he adjusts to pro game. Grade – 70/60

Summation: Twitchy athlete with good present strength and some physical projection remaining. Exceptional power prospect. Absolutely elite bat speed and top-of-the-scale raw power. Hit tool has to develop, including plate coverage, pitch recognition and approach but has the elite bat speed to cover some weaknesses in the overall hitting approach. Potential average hit that should allow 80 raw to play in games. .270-.280 hitter with 40+ home runs at peak. Athletic enough and runs well enough for CF assignment but instincts are not there yet (new to the position). May not get there and may fit better in RF where plus speed will play just as well. Ultra-aggressive player with high energy and good makeup. Potential star-level player with power as the standout tool.

Relative Risk: High. Aggressive hitting approach has to be developed against more advanced pitching.

Draft Projection: Arguably the top player available in the draft. Easily the top position player for me. Monster power potential will keep him atop draft boards even with questions about how the hit tool develops and whether he stays up the middle. Excellent talent that is too much to pass up in the top two or three picks.

[http://baseballprospectnation.com/2013/04/26/scouting-report-clint-frazier-of/]

Why Renfroe has helium

Even though he isn’t in the first tier of college players available in this year’s draft, Hunter Renfroe might offer more upside than the likes of San Diego’s Kris Bryant and North Carolina’s Colin Moran, the two position players likely to be taken ahead of him.

The reason Renfroe falls short is because his track record of success in the SEC is limited to 2013. He was on the prospect radar before the season because of his raw tools, but he had to put them on display this year after hitting an uninspiring .252/.328/.374 two years ago.

Renfroe finally put everything together and is hitting a much better .345/.435/.632 this year. He continues to show the potential for at least four plus tools with the chance at five, if his hit tool keeps getting better.

Raw college players are dangerous to gamble on, but Renfroe is a tremendous athlete with big-time power potential, plus running speed, throwing arm and defense in center field. Since he can play a premium position, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him taken in the top 10.[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1660163-2013-mlb-draft-predictions-which-prospects-have-highest-ceiling/page/7]

Blake Swihart Sox Rank: 8, ETA: 2015, Position: C, Age: 21, DOB: 04/03/1992

Bats: S, Throws: R, Height: 6′ 1″, Weight: 175, Drafted: 2011, 1st (26) – BOS

“Another aggressive Draft by the Red Sox in 2011 netted Swihart in the first round. One of the better bats from that class’ high school crop, the New Mexico native can hit from both sides of the plate. He should hit for average and power as he develops. Although he hasn’t been doing it for that long and isn’t the biggest guy in the world, he does have some good skills behind the plate, particularly a strong arm and some agility. If the Red Sox want to move his bat faster, they could have him switch positions, but he has the potential to develop into a special all-around catcher…”

[http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/]

The Player: Reese McGuire (C, Kentwood HS) – Showcase warrior the last two years and hit .388 as a junior, he has backed it up with a strong performance as a senior. Has hit .436/.559/.883 this year with 13 doubles, three triples and four home runs.

Basis of Report: Compilation – Industry Contacts

Scouting Report
Body (6-1, 190): Live, athletic body. Added some muscular definition in the last year. Looks the part of a backstop. Good coordination. Not completely physical mature but getting there and has some projection remaining.
Hit: Balanced, smooth swing with a quiet load. Gets the bat to the zone with consistent mechanics and has the bat speed to catch up to quality velocity. Can make contact with some regularity but still struggles with better secondary offerings. Tends to get pull happy with leads to some weak contact on pitches away from him. Likes to swing and will need to develop approach. Has basic tools to hit .260-.270 down the line. Will need significant development at the plate. Grade – 30/50
Power: Improved strength has allowed him drive the ball more consistently. Has above-average bat speed and some lift in his swing. Power is mostly to the pull side right now and limited to batting practice/workouts. Power does not translate to games consistently because of heavy focus on contact. Potential for power to play better as the approach matures and he becomes more comfortable with his swing and better secondary pitches. Average raw could be part of his game down the line. Not likely to pick up many doubles given lift in swing but could have 15+ home runs a year at peak. Grade (raw power) – 40/50
Arm: Above-average raw arm strength with some belief that he could add more with additional strength. Loose arm with a quick release that allows arm to play up a half grade. Very good tool. Grade – 50+/60
Fielding: Advanced for his age. Catch-and-throw skills play well right now. Can pop as low as 1.90 and is consistently sub-2.00. Quick feet and transfer, paired with above-average arm strength allows him to control running game. Very good blocker. Handles fastballs and breaking balls in the dirt with aplomb. Very intelligent. Wise beyond his years. Can call his own game and prides himself on working through at-bats intelligently. Receiving lags the rest of the defensive profile but should come with experience. Hasn’t handled premium stuff consistently and will have to adjust. Above-average overall profile long term. Grade – 40/50+
Speed: Decent runner now but not a significant part of his game. Shows average home-to-first. Likely to slow down with physical maturity. Probably a fringy runner early in his career and possibly below-average long term; depending on physical development. Grade – 50/40+

Summation: Quality prospect with broad skill set. Well-rounded profile is rare for high school backstops. Defensive profile is ahead of offensive development and will likely carry him throughout his career. Glove can be at least above-average in every respect. Already a quality catch-and-throw guy with good blocking ability. Strong arm. Intelligent kid with strong makeup. Needs to develop receiving ability. There is strength and lift in the swing that allows for average power projection. Hit tool has serious questions with multiple grade jumps necessary to reach average level. Even a modest hit tool could allow power to play at fringe-average level and make him a strong everyday player with his defensive profile. Potential to be a very good overall player with above-average potential for the position.

Relative Risk: High. Relatively advanced defensive profile helps mitigate some risk but questions about the bat can’t be ignored.

Draft Projection: First round talent with potential to go in the top half to a team that believes in the hitting ability. Has a big-league floor because of defensive projection but he will be a very high-risk pick if he goes off the board in the top ten picks.

[http://baseballprospectnation.com/2013/05/31/scouting-report-reese-mcguire-c/#more-1541]

Why Denney has helium

In a year that is very good for high school catchers, Jon Denney stands out because there are fewer questions about his bat than the other two first rounders, Reese McGuire and Nick Ciuffo.

Denney has a very simple swing that is able to generate bat speed and power thanks to quick hands through the zone and very good rotation. He is a big kid and will eventually show his plus raw power more in games with some experience.

That is not to say Denney is without flaws, as there are real concerns about his ability to remain behind the plate. His frame is very good for the position, at 6’2″, 205 pounds. He has a good throwing arm and athleticism.

He is still raw as a receiver and doesn’t always do a great job of blocking balls in the dirt. Now that he is going into pro ball, where the off-speed stuff will be much better, Denney could find himself overwhelmed and forced to move off the position.

However, it is far too early to give up on Denney behind the plate. If he can even find a way to be fringe-average at the position, his bat will make him a potential All-Star.[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1660163-2013-mlb-draft-predictions-which-prospects-have-highest-ceiling/page/8]

Of all players drafted, 66 % of First-round picks play in MLB.

About 49% Second-round draftees play in MLB.

Rounds 3-5 are a major turning point; the odds begin to drastically decrease to 32 %.

Only 20% of players drafted in Rounds 6-10 reach The Show.

Just 11% of players drafted in Rounds 11-20 reach the big leagues.

Players drafted after the 21st round have a 7% shot at The Show; probably less now that 10 rounds have been cut from the draft.

[All data and information used in this article is courtesy of Baseball Reference, Cornell University and Prospect Watch.]

” Throughout the history of the draft, college pitchers have indeed been more successful in reaching the majors, and they’ve also had more staying power. That’s a pretty big point for them.

But on the flip side is the big point that high school pitchers have going for them. Not as many of them have reached the majors, but those who have made the majors have compiled a better average WAR. Their production has been better.

That edge doesn’t exist because high school pitchers have been better throughout the entire history of the draft. It exists because high school pitchers have been better in very recent history.

The love affair with college pitchers that started to gain steam roughly a decade ago was well-founded. If we restrict our window to 1965 to 1998…”

“So whereas taking high school pitchers in the first round of the draft used to be a foolish endeavor, now the choice between college and high school pitchers has developed into the ultimate wager.

College pitchers are still the safer bet, as they have better odds of making it to the majors and pretty good odds of becoming productive players. High school pitchers are still a risky bet due to the trouble they have making it to the majors, but the odds of stumbling upon a star have gone way, way up.

And that may be why things are starting to turn around a little bit.

Between 2009 and 2012, there were 55 college pitchers and 54 high school pitchers taken in the first round of the draft. Things have evened out in a big way.

College pitchers like Stephen Strasburg, Chris Sale and Matt Harvey have made it and established themselves as stars, but high school pitchers Shelby Miller and Jose Fernandez look like they’re going to be special. Waiting in the wings are fellow high school first-rounders Dylan Bundy, Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker. They’re among the best prospects in the game, and they could join a growing contingent of high school pitchers turned major-league stars.

If they do, it’s only going to be clearer that using a first-round pick on a high school pitcher isn’t the waste of time it used to be.”

[http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1656599-2013-mlb-draft-are-high-school-or-college-arms-the-better-first-round-risk]

  Less than eleven in 100, or about 10.5 percent, of NCAA senior male baseball players will get drafted by a Major League Baseball (MLB) team.

  Approximately one in 200, or approximately 0.5 percent of high school senior boys playing interscholastic baseball will eventually be drafted by an MLB team.

[http://www.hsbaseballweb.com/probability.htm]

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