Sox Fans: You “Could” Win $40,000 on the World Series–regardless of who wins
By Earl Nash
Red Sox fans, even you can enjoy the World Series this year by winning some money. Would $40,000 help you forget Bobby Valentine, Josh Beckett, and Carl Crawford?
With neither team strong enough to sweep the other 4-0 in the 2012 World Series and the bookies favoring the Tigers to win it, let’s game out how either team might win it and, regardless of the outcome, how you can win $40,000.
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UPDATE: My son-in-law, a Giants’ fan read this article and mostly followed my advice. He got a $5,000 boat loan from his Credit Union, but he bet on the Giants in games 1 and 2; thus, he has already turned his $5,000 nut into $10,000. He says he is laying $2500 on the Giants for game 3 and another $25oo on a Giants’ 4-game sweep; the latter bet at 2-1 odds: he will either lose $2500 on that sweep bet, or garner $5,000.
He also told me that I should stop making forecasts on baseball; since I had the Yankees and the Reds facing off in this World Series.
Use discernment when consider any wagers on baseball.
When asked: “What is your favorite word in English?” Houston Astros star pitcher, Jaoquin Andujar replied:
“Ju-nebber-know.” Or, as Berra The Yogi said: “In baseball, you don’t know nothin’.”
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May 18, 2012; Baltimore, MD, USA; A fan talks to a betting agent before the 137th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. Mandatory Credit: Maxwell Kruger-US PRESSWIRE
HOW THE TIGERS WIN IT:
In three words: Verlander, Cabrera, Fielder.
If Verlander faces Zito twice, give the Tigers a 2-0 result. Assume Cain is able and ready to win both of his starts; give the Giants a 2-0 result. We are now even at 2-2 with the advantage still to Detroit.
Fister will likely face Bumgarner in games 2 and 6 [If Bumgarner looks bad in game 2, look for Bochy to resort to Lincecum in game 6.]
Although Fister is 4-7 with a 3.70 ERA on the road this season, the bookies will favor the Tigers in these two games.
After five games are played, the Tigers should be up by a game, 3-2, needing to win one out of the two games scheduled for San Francisco.
This would mean that the Giants’ “must-win” storyline would continue, as San Francisco would need to win both games, 6 and 7, at home.
This would mean that the Tigers win the World Series in 6 or 7 games in San Francisco.
However, all bets are off, if there is a 7th game. Bochy and Leyland might be tempted to bring back their aces on short rest. This is where the edge will go to the Giants, because Cain will have had 4 days rest, while Verlander will be pitching on 3 days rest.
But, Leyland may start Anibal Sanchez, if his first start is decent, since Sanchez owns the Giants at A T & T Park throughout his career: 3-0, 0.36 ERA, including two complete-game shutouts.
Bochy may look at that record and decide to go with Cain in game 7.
Regardless of who starts, both managers will go “all hands on deck” with everything on the line.
If Vogelsong has a decent start in Game 3, Bochy may start him and, as soon as there is a hint of trouble, rush Cain in from the pen. If Cain tires, expect Lincecum to hold back the Tigers, until at least the 7th inning, when Bochy can draw on his excellent pen men:
With seven relievers he can trust, Bochy will give Lincecum the fast hook, if Timmy reverts to his habit of issuing free passes. This means that, if Bochy can get just five innings from Vogelsong, Cain, and Lincecum, he will not hesitate to dip into his deep pen to fill in the last four innings.
The Tigers will have the momentum through game 6, but, if it goes to a 7th game, the Mo will go to the Giants, since Cain could start on 4 days rest and San Francisco has the deeper bullpen.
HOW THE GIANTS WIN IT:
In three words: walk, Cabrera, Fielder.
Unless the bases are loaded, the Giants should issue intentional passes to the Detroit Dinosaurs, Cab Miggy and Prince Piggy.
This means putting these two behemoths on first base to set up double plays.
This means that neither masher hits a HR in the entire World Series.
It means that the rest of the roster will need to find a way to hit a bunch of singles to produce runs, around Miggy-Piggy double plays.
When Cab Miggy and Prince Piggy are on defense on the corners, the Giants should drop bunts in both directions; especially against Verlander, so they can force him into his stretch motion.
HOW YOU WIN MONEY
[Read disclaimer, below. Honor system.]
You will need at least $5,000 for your nut to make this worth your time and effort. You could take out a $5,000 car or boat loan from your Credit Union, or draw cash advances from your credit cards, or refinance your trailer or mobile home at a “too big to fail” national bank. If all else fails, go to an Italian restaurant and ask the bartender or bouncer for a referral to a loan agent.
Once you have you $5,000 in cash:
Take half of what you have to bet [$2500] and put it on Verlander in Game 1.
[Actually, you will need to put up a bit more than just $100 to win $100.]
Today the odds say:
Tigers -163,
Giants 157
This means that, to win $100, you will need to put up $163 on the Tigers to prevail in Game One.
And…to win $100, you will need to put up $157 on the Giants to prevail in Game One.
This is telling you that the bookies predict that the Tigers will win Game One.
If you were to go to that site to see the odds, you will also see OVER/UNDER: 6.5
http://sports.cappersmall.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=cappersmall&page=gaming/liveodds2.aspx
This means that you can wager just $100 to win $100 [even money] to bet on whether the total runs scored by both teams will be over, or under, 6.5 runs. Sure, there is no such thing as .5 runs,, but that is just to give the bookies the edge. If the game ends with a score of 4-3 and you bet OVER on 6.5, you win, as the total is 7 runs scored by both teams and that is OVER 6.5. If you think the total runs scored in Game One will be UNDER 6.5, you can bet that UNDER.
If you are really feeling lucky, or the minimum wage employee at the QUIK STOP station says he has insider information and is betting on the Giants to win Game One and is also betting OVER 6.5 runs are scored, either ignore the moron, or bet the Tigers and UNDER.
If you bet the Tigers to win today, to win $2500, you will need to put up $4.075. [multiply 25 x 163.]
If you bet the Giants to win today, to win $2500, you will need to put up $3,925. [multiply 25 x 157.]
This will net you $2500. So, now your total nut is $5,000.
Don’t bet again until Cain pitches, then put half of your original amount $2500 on the Giants.
This will net you $2500. So, now your total nut is $7,500.
When Verlander pitches his second game, put ALL the money [$7,500] on the Tigers.
This will net you $7,500. So, now your total nut is $15,000.
Take half of the money [$7,500] and bet it on Cain’s second game.
This will net you $7,500. So, now your total nut is $22,500.
When Verlander pitches his third game, put ALL the money [$22,500] on Verlander and the Tigers.
This will net you $22,500. So, now your total nut is $45,000.
HINT: If you are a low roller and want to risk your lunch money, find someone who is wearing team apparel. Say the guy at the QUIK STOP is wearing a Giants’ cap; he will give you and even money bet; so, put up your $20 against his $20 to win $20; let the adult who supervises this moron hold the cash.
The more regalia a fan is wearing, the better odds you can get. If a guy is in full uniform, insist on 2-1 odds: your $20 against his $40, winner take all.
HINT: Do not wager with any guy who has a rolled up newspaper in his back pocket, or a guy who uses the pay phone, or a husky guy with a broken nose. As always, if you are betting in-person with a stranger, only bet with one you can easily beat up.
RULE: Stay out of the “Combat Zone” in Boston. If you cannot find a place to make a wager, go to South Boston [aka “Southie”] and look for an independent sub sandwich shop; one that does not belong to a franchise like SUBWAY.
RULE: Never place a bet with a guy who is wearing a fake leather, black “car coat,” or slicks his hair back in a DA [“Duck’s Ass] hair style, like Elvis.
RULE: Never bet on any team that you root for; EX: If you are a Red Sox fan, or have ever uttered the phrase “Red Sox Nation,” keep your money in your pocket.
"GOOD LUCK MANTRA: “Suckers always lose; losing always sucks.”"
HISTORICAL “X-FACTOR”
The history of the World Series is replete with examples* of an obscure bench player coming out of the shadows of the dugout to pinch hit and winning the Series with a stroke of serendipity. Thus might Giants’ lefty hitter, back-up catcher, Hector Sanchez [5 ABs in regular season], or Tiger spare OF Avisail Antonio Garcia [11 ABs in regular season] claim their 15 seconds of fame and confound bookies and bettors.
[* EX: William “Dummy” Hoy, Scott Leius, George “Whitey” Rohe, Jimmy “The Human Mosquito” Slagle, Orvie “Big Jeff“ Overall, Urban “Red“ Faber, Buddy Biancalana, Scott Brosius, Geoff Blum, Brian Doyle.]
And what Red Sox fan can forget the man who hit the HR before the Fisk “Waves it FAIR” HR in the 1975 WS, game 6 at Fenway Park–Bernie Carbo!
AGREEMENT: If you do win that $40,000 on the 2012 World Series, you agree to not bet again, until you take this quiz:
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/content/20-questions
Good luck! Or, as my bookie says: Bona fortuna!
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