With nearly two months of the season in the books, it’s never too early to start looking ahead even if it is a little fictitious. According to Baseballprospectus.com, the Boston Red Sox have a 56.7% chance of making the postseason this year. Oddly enough the Red Sox are second in the AL East with this ranking, behind only the arch enemy New York Yankees who have a 67.3% chance of making it to the dance known as October baseball. Surprisingly the Tampa Bay Rays sit third at 53.9% while the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are well back at 15.7% and 5.9%. How are these numbers calculated you ask?
The system uses a simulated expected winning percentage based on the team’s strength but not exclusive to the schedule. Given the Red Sox recent surge in the baseball world and the Rays even keeled play it’s not surprising to see the Sox slightly ahead of Tampa.
When looking at the 1-day delta that compares the team’s chances from a day before, the Red Sox are a positive 9.4% while the Rays are a negative 10.6%. Again, not mind blowing when you take into account the Red Sox beat Justin Verlander while the Rays lost with James Shields on the mound.
The 7-day delta is a little more telling as it captures the previous week of play, something that again bodes well for the BoSox who were +2.8%. Tampa was -11.4% and the Yankees were +3.1% with their recent winning streak.
What does it all mean? A whole lot of nothing really but it is fun to compare the other divisional teams as we get set for the grinding summer months that will separate the contenders from the pretenders. As part of my due diligence, I will look at this projection near the end of each month and reflect on the recent changes.
The Texas Rangers are almost a sure thing to make the postseason with a 98.8% chance while the surging Chicago White Sox have a 63.0% projection. The Detroit Tigers, a team many thought would run away with the Central have a 34.3% chance as of today.
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