Sox Starting Catcher for the decade will not be on the Opening Day roster
By Earl Nash
The man with the power bat, who will likely be the Red Sox starting catcher for the next decade, will play on Opening Day, but in Pawtucket.
With David Ortiz largely filling the DH slot, Saltalmacchia penciled in as the starting catcher, former Red Sox backstop Kelly Shoppach in the back-up role, and manager Valentine preferring an additional pitcher over a third catcher, Ryan Lavarnway will be relegated to starting the season in AAA.
Salty is listed as a switch-hitter, but is weak vs. LHPs, .252 and .257 vs. LHP starters. Enter Kelly Shoppach, who hits .274 vs. LHPs and .253 vs. LHP starters; this gives the Sox a 22-point advantage vs. LHPs with Shoppach at bat.
But, Lavarnway’s limited MLB sample [39 ABs] shows .294 vs. LHPs and .278 vs. LHP starters. His four-year BA in the minors was .284 [splits not available]. Although Lavarnway had only 39 ABs, his .294 BA is consistent with his .284 in four years in the minors. Kelly Shoppach’s career BA is career .224 hitter. Lavarnway is a better hitter vs. LHPs than Shoppach: .294/.274 and would give the Sox a 42-point advantage over Salty.
You might get the impression from the media that Shoppach is a better defensive catcher than Lavarnway. Really?
Fld % C/S%
Lavarnway .993 32% [4-year minor league stats]
Saltalamacchia .992 31% [MLB career stats]
Shoppach .991 28% [MLB career stats]
Because minor league stats rarely translate evenly into MLB stats, we cannot yet claim that Lavarnway is a better hitter and better defender than Shoppach and, since the Sox want Ryan to have a bit more time, as a daily starter in the minors, to sharpen his defensive skills, Shoppach will be on the Opening Day roster.
But, if Lavarnway can maintain his hitting for average and power and take his defensive skills up a notch and Shoppach runs true to form, .224 and 28% of runners thrown out, before too long, Valentine may have them swap roles, promoting Lavarnway to the majors behind Salty and sending Shoppach to the minors, or the waiver wire.
By Opening Day 2013, the current catching order will be turned on its head with Salty in the starting slot, Lavarnway as his back-up and Shoppach will be shopping for a gig elsewhere.
By Opening Day 2014, Salty and Ryan will swap slots and Lavarnway will emerge as the Sox regular starting catcher for the next decade.
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