2012 Projections: Mike Aviles & Nick Punto
With the recent flurry of activity surrounding the shortstop position with the Red Sox, I thought it would only be fitting to platoon the projections of both Nick Punto and Mike Aviles; seeing how they will be platooning the position, at least for the start of the 2012 year.
Much has been made about the two players taking over for the departed Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie, with the big question being “can they produce at the plate.” According to the projections, yes they can. So rest easy Red Sox fans, maybe this shortstop duo can become dynamic.
Let’s start with Mike Aviles. He split time between the Kansas City Royals and the Red Sox and had a line of .255/.289/.409. He hit 7 home runs, had 39 RBI and stole 14 bases in 2011. At times with the Red Sox he provided a productive bat and this is something we can look forward to seeing again in 2012.
The numbers projected by both Bill James and Roto Champ are almost identical, so for simplicity sake we’ll go with the guru on this one.
James has him playing in 101 games and although he doesn’t specify which position, we know he’ll be playing mainly at short with third base and right field also in the equation. His line offensive line is good: .279/.311/.423 with 8 home runs, 37 RBI and 11 stolen bases. The homers and RBI’s are similar to last year but his batting average and on-base percentage are up considerably, making him a nice addition to the back end of the lineup. If he can get on base 1 out of every 3 at bats and turn things over to the top of the order then he should score more often than last year (31). This does fall in line with James as he has Aviles scoring 41 times.
He’s a career .288 batter and last year through 107 plate appearances with Boston he hit .317 and had an on-base percentage of .340. While it’s unlikely he’ll produce those kinds of numbers over the span of 100+ games, his career line is good enough for the number 8 or number 9 batter.
The other part to this new shortstop tandem is Nick Punto. While he won’t smack the ball as hard as Aviles can, he does have the superior glove, making him more valuable in a different light; a late inning defensive substitution when protecting a thin lead.
None the less, we’ll look at Punto’s 2012 projections and compare that of Bill James to Roto Champ’s numbers. James has the following line for Punto: .243/.329/.315 with 1 home run and 23 RBI. While Roto has similar results at the plate in terms of production, 1 home run and 26 RBI, the offensive line is higher: .270/.367/.360. These numbers are also based on 45 less plate appearances.
When you look at Punto’s career numbers, James is closer to what Punto could produce: .249/.325/.327. He averages just over 1 home run and around 20 RBI a season. If Punto can hit .250, have an OBP of .320 then he, like Aviles will be a nice contributor to the Red Sox offense. As I said, with the top of the order lurking after one of these two bat with the possibility of getting on base, the heavy hitters can then do their thing which in turn will lead to Red Sox winning more ball games.
It’s a team game and this newly formed shortstop team of Mike Aviles and Nick Punto may turn out to be more productive than anyone wanted to give them credit for. While they won’t tear the cover off the ball or win the AL batting title, the two of them could quietly offer there own form of value, both at the plate and in the field.
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