Beltran to Boston Would Be Concerning
The offseason is officially upon us and with it comes rampant rumors about which free agents will land with which teams. One of the latest rumblings is that the Red Sox could be interested in bringing outfielder Carlos Beltran to Boston.
Beltran, who split last season between the New York Mets and San Francisco Giants is a free agent after his $18.5 million per season contract ran out. His price tag could range between $15 and $18 million and will likely require a multi-year deal.
At 35 years of age, Beltran is on the downside of his career. Given his history of injuries in the past few seasons it makes the signing a risky one and one that the Red Sox should probably stay away from.
Beltran broke into the league fulltime back in 1999 with the Kansas City Royals at the age of 22 and managed to win the AL Rookie of the Year. He spent five full seasons with the Royals and four out of those five years he played a minimum of 140 games. 2002, Beltran played all 162 games and drove in 105 RBI, his fourth best total of his career.
After spending just over half of the 2004 season with the Houston Astros, Beltran would sign with the New York Mets in 2005 where he played until this past summer when he was dealt to the Giants.
Through his 14 year career, Beltran has pretty good offensive statistics. A career batting average of .283 to go with an OBP of .361, a SLG of .496 and an OPS of .857. He’s belted 302 dingers and has driven in 1,146 runs. This all sounds pretty intriguing doesn’t it?
While some think Beltran would look good in a Red Sox uniform, patrolling right field in front of the Fenway Faithful, but don’t let the numbers fool you.
Beltran has exceptionally good power, but it’s not great. He’s only hit more than 40 homeruns in a season once and that was back in 2006. He followed that up with 33 in 2007 and this past year he hit 22. Still pretty reasonable for a right fielder, but not one that’s making $15 million or more.
An impressive note on Beltran is that he drove in 100+ RBI in 7 out of 8 seasons, spanning from 2001 through 2008. In fact, of his 13 fulltime career years, Beltran failed to drive in 100 plus RBI only five times. Again, pretty intriguing right?
Everything seems to be like a good fit. Beltran can drive in runs, hit the long ball, has good on-base percentage and above average slugging percentage, but things aren’t always what they seem.
The 2009 season would see Beltran start to breakdown. He only played in 81 games where he’d hit 10 homers and 48 RBI. He did hit .325 and had a career high OBP of .415 but it was half of the season that he lost that was cause for concern.
The following year the injury bug would once again wreak havoc on Beltran’s season, forcing the six time all-star to miss 98 games. His batting stats were all way down and it suddenly became a question of whether or not Beltran could withstand the rigerous six months of the regular season.
Last season saw a resurgence from Beltran, who managed to stay relatively heatlhy, playing in 142 games between New York and San Francisco. Beltran once again finished the season with a .300 average and above career averages in OBP (.385), SLG (.525) and OPS (.910).
You’re probably wondering why signing Beltran would be a concern for the Red Sox. Well, it’s the last three years that give reason for concern. Out of a possible 486 games, Beltran only played in 287 of those games. That is just over half of the games and at 35, he’s not getting any younger.
It’s also been reported that the San Francisco Giants will make every effort to retain the services of Beltran and given their lack of offensive prowess this past year, they will likely overpay to keep him.
So if the Red Sox want a 35-year old that is on the verge of breaking down, they’ll likely have to outbid the Giants and spend way too much on him. Haven’t we seen this before with the free agents that have been signed over the past several years? Does John Lackey, John Smoltz or Eric Gagne mean anything? Okay, those were all pitchers. How about J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo and Mike Cameron? What do they all have in common? Most were over their 30’s when they came to Boston and all underperformed. Oh, and they were all grossly overpaid.
The Beltran situation almost eerily resembles that of J.D. Drew. A powerful career with excellent offensive numbers to warrant an inflated salary and suddenly Drew’s body decided that he wasn’t going to play baseball on a consistent basis.
Michael Cuddyer is on the free agent market and he would be a much better fit for Boston. Cuddyer is three years younger than Beltran and while he doesn’t bring the personal resume or career numbers that Beltran does, Cuddyer does come with a much cheaper price tag.
Put Cuddyer in rightfield and have him split the playing time with Ryan Kalish and suddenly it’s a recipe that could work. Trade Josh Reddick for a pitcher and voila. It’s making sense. Give up on the 35 year old stud that is on the verge of physical breakdown and venture down a different path. After all, the path of overpaying savy veterans who are past their prime is well worn out in Boston.
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