Notable Numerals: Josh Beckett

Since being traded to the Boston Red Sox prior to the 2005 season, Josh Beckett has been extremely valuable to the club, acting as the ace of the staff for most of that time period. Last season was an off-year for the Texan, mostly due to a back injury that kept him out of the starting rotation for an extended period of time, as he finished 6-6. When he was on the mound, he struggled mightily, posting the highest era of his career (5.78) and essentially handed over the reins of staff ace to Jon Lester. Knowing Beckett’s determination and grit, last year must have killed him inside, so 2011 will be the year for him to recharge and come out hurling for the top spot in the rotation. Let’s take a look at some of Beckett’s numbers in this week’s edition of Notable Numerals.

Winning percentage for Beckett in his 5-year career with the Red Sox. Overall, Beckett has a .602 winning percentage with a 112-74 record throughout his career. The righty has been a force to reckon with on the mound, currently sitting 14th on the active pitchers list in that category, with a chance to improve upon that number in 2011. Before last season, Beckett had won 12+ games in every season with the Red Sox, winning a league-high 20 in 2007. That same year, Beckett had his best season as a professional athlete, making an All-Star game, finishing 2nd in the Cy Young award voting, and of course, winning the ALCS MVP award en route to a World Series title for Boston. If Beckett can put 2010 behind him, he is only 1 season removed from a 17-6 record with a 3.86 era, which everyone would love to see repeated in 2011.

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K to BB ratio throughout his career in the postseason. There is no denying Beckett’s incredible ability to take his game to the next level when postseason time rolls around. His K to BB ratio jumps 1.64 from his career regular season average and he becomes a win machine, with a 7-3 record in 13 starts (14 game appearances). In 2010, Beckett had just a 2.58 K to BB ratio, which was one of the major reasons he struggled to get outs and gave up a lot more runs than in a normal season. His command was spotty at best, something he does not have a big issue with when healthy. In 2007, Beckett had a K to BB ratio of 4.85 and in 2008, it was 5.06, a career high. There is nothing to indicate that Beckett can’t return to a higher number this season, assuming he can stay healthy and remain fiery on the mound.

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K’s per 9 innings throughout his career in the postseason. This is just another impressive postseason statistic for Beckett. He has an uncanny ability to elevate his game in October and November to levels most will never see in their careers. His K’s per 9 innings mark is 1 K higher in the postseason, but still a strong 8.5 throughout his regular season career. Beckett has always been a strikeout pitcher and if healthy, will cross the 1,500 career threshold this season, as he is just 54 away as opening day approaches. Whether he gets the opening day start or not (likely not), he is still a front-end of the rotation pitcher who will play a pivotal role with the Red Sox if they team is to win a World Series title this season. For Beckett, not getting the nod on opening day will likely motivate him to work harder on his game and reclaim his spot at the top.

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Batting average against for Beckett in his career. When determining a pitcher’s ability to control the game and get hitters out consistently, a K to BB ratio is important, but it needs to be combined with a batting average against to give a bigger picture view. Beckett has been solid in both departments for the most part, stifling hitters at the plate and keeping them off the base paths by not giving up to many free passes. As a point of reference, when Beckett struggled in 2010, he allowed opponents to hit at a ridiculous .292 batting average, which led to more base-runners and more scoring opportunities for the opposition. As mentioned above, he also had poor K to BB numbers last season, leading to more pressure situations with runners in scoring position. In the AL East, with powerful lineups across the board, allowing a high opponent batting average is a recipe for disaster, as Beckett discovered last season.

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ERA for Beckett at Fenway Park. This is the stat that surprised me the most. Over the course of his career, Beckett has a 3.96 era and a 4.29 era during his 5 seasons in Boston. The fact that he had a significantly higher ERA at Fenway was surprising. Going from the NL to the AL his ERA expectedly rose, but then to struggle at home with a big crowd seemed odd for an emotional pitcher. Then again, maybe as an emotional guy, the crowd amps him up too much and throws him off his game (no pun intended). Overall his numbers aren’t bad at home, because he does hold a 33-20 record at Fenway. What is interesting about Fenway, is that it favors both hitters and pitchers (according to calculations done by Baseball-Reference.com), so that could certainly play a factor in Beckett’s struggles, especially with the short fence in right and the monster in left. If his home ERA were to improve slightly in 2011, Beckett could likely pick up another win or two more on his season total.

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