Notable Numerals: Clay Buchholz

Along with last week’s focus, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz is the present and future in the Boston Red Sox starting rotation. In just 3+ years in the majors, Buchholz has continued to improve his game and has impressed nearly everyone he has come in contact with, culminating in his 1st 25+ game season in 2010. Any questions about his mental control earlier in his career appears to be gone, as he pitched in pressure situations and big games in 2010, not flinching and giving up large chunks of runs because a hit or walk threw him off kilter. At age 26, the Texan has infinite potential and could very well be an ace of the staff for years to come. I have a feeling 2011 will be the continuation of the break-out career of Buchholz. Let’s take a look at some of his numbers.

ERA in 2010. To say Buchholz was great in 2010 is an understatement. He pitched lights-out for the injury-depleted Sox, posting the 2nd best ERA in the AL. What more can you ask out of your 25-year old 2nd or 3rd starter? Buchholz allowed a stingy .226 batting average against last season, which was better than his career average of .248 and a bump in the positive direction (technically negative, but in a good way). At such a young age, to be pitching so effectively is a recipe for continued success, because Buchholz will only continue to gain confidence and grow into a more mature and intelligent pitcher, maximizing his talent in even greater ways. Look for Buchholz to be in the conversation as the ace of this Red Sox staff in the near future, potentially even in 2011.

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Adjusted ERA for Buchholz in 2010. I know this is cheating a bit, because the 1st stat I showed was his regular ERA, but this is worth noting and can’t be overlooked. For those who are unfamiliar, an adjusted ERA+ factors in the league average ERA, thus leveling out the playing field for those who pitch in a hitter’s-friendly park or vice versa. Last season, Buchholz led all AL pitchers in the adjusted era, an incredible feat considering the some of the top-tier pitchers in the league and even within the division that he had to match-up with on a regular basis. Despite his impressive numbers, many overlooked Buchholz last season when it came to CY Young voting, because of his low strike out numbers. He finish 6th in the voting, but with higher strikeout numbers, the conversation could have been very different.

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HRs per 9 innings in 2010. Another category Buchholz has found success in throughout his young career is home runs allowed. In 364.1 career innings pitched, he has allowed just 33 home runs, his most impressive number coming last season with 9 in 173.2 innings. Buchholz finished 3rd in the AL in home runs allowed, and although I keep beating this to death, it is remarkable considering the division he plays in is tops in the bigs in home run production. The top 3 team home run totals in all of the majors in 2010 belonged to the AL East, Tampa Bay Rays finishing 12th and the Baltimore Orioles finishing 21st out of 30 teams. Of that group, the only team he doesn’t have to face is his own.

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Putouts for Buchholz in 2010. Stat categories that are often overlooked for pitchers relate to their defensive abilities, but a strong defensive pitcher can really help himself out by keeping guys off the base paths. Last season, Buchholz was solid at fielding his position, racking up the putout number above, which was 4th best in the AL, as well as collecting 24 assists and turning 1 double-play. His range factor number was a 1.61, 5th best in the league, which compiles putouts and assists, and divides that number by the number of games played. Although defensive stats aren’t going to make Buchholz an ace pitcher for years to come, they help keep the opponent in check and out of men-on-base situations, which is helpful for confidence and control.

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K’s per 9 innings. The final stat for Buchholz is an interesting one with a downward trend. It isn’t necessarily bad, but it also isn’t something to celebrate either. In his 3+ seasons in the majors, Buchholz has seen his strikeout numbers drop each season. In 2007, he stuck out 8.7 batters per 9 innings, although because it was only a partial season, it may be slightly over-inflated. Then it appeared in 2008 that number was here to stay, dropping just a hair to 8.5. In 2009, the number plummeted to 6.7, and dropped again in 2010, another half-a-K per game. It seems that without focusing on striking out every batter, Buchholz is more relaxed and pitching for contact, as was proven in his impressive numbers in 2010. He has the capabilities to be more of a strikeout pitcher, and if he can buck the trend and bump that number up a little bit in the future, he will likely continue to improve as a pitcher and maybe add another win or 2 to his 17 mark last year.

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