John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka- What to Expect
By Editorial Staff
What wins championships? Pitching and defense of course. Some teams are built to make the post season, i.e. the Twins, Rangers, White Sox and Athletics. The Twins, Rangers and White Sox lack a true #1 starter in their rotation. While the Athletics, who have Trevor Cahill, lack the bats that could prevent any of these teams from winning a championship. This is not the case with the Red Sox. The lineup they place on the field in 2011 will not have a problem scoring runs, and the addition of Crawford and Gonzalez strengthens their defense.
The reason most experts are predicting a Red Sox – Phillies World Series is the depth of both pitching staffs. The Sox rotation of Jon Lester, Clay Bucholz, Josh Beckett, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka may not be better than the Phillies but it certainly is close second. The question I have is how effective will Lackey and Dice-K be? They combined for a total of 23 total wins in 2010 and an ERA around 4.50. For the Sox to win the East Division comfortably, both of these statistics need to improve. I believe they will. The reason I think they will is where they are slotted in the rotation. The better teams in the league can throw out 1-2-3 good to decent starters. But who has a starting five like the Sox do? No one.
Lets start with John Lackey first. Before coming to the Sox he had the reputation as a bulldog, a pitcher who can eat up innings for a team. He was the ace of the Angels, but the most wins he ever achieved was in 2007 when he racked up 19 wins. On average, Lackey wins 14 games a year, the same number of wins last year. Let’s say last year he underachieved being his first year in a Sox uniform due to the attention of the big contract and the high expectations that come along with it. This year he should be more settled in. More important, he won’t have the expectations of an ace, he will be matching up against the other teams number 4 pitchers. This will be a huge advantage for Lackey this year. What other number 4 pitchers in the league are going to give you 200 plus innings? He certainly won’t be lacking run support. There should be times this year that he will over match the opposing pitcher. Let’s not forget that just two seasons ago, Lackey was the ace on the Angels staff. If he can win 14 games last year as the number three starter, how hard will it be for him to squeeze out another 2-4 wins this year against weaker opponents?
Dice-K is a more complex issue. He throws too many pitches. Everyone knows it. But now the injury bug seems to be creeping in. After winning 18 games in 2008, the decline in games started, innings pitched and rising ERA has been alarming. Maybe he will benefit with Curt Young as the new pitching coach. What changes has he done this off season to prepare for the long grind of the season? If he is physically and mentally in shape then Dice-K could have a big season. Like Lackey will benefit as a number 4 pitcher, can you imagine the water downed pitching Dice-K will face as the number 5 starter? The odds certainly look in his favor. If Dice K can win 18 games as a number 3 starter in 2008, why is it such a stretch for him to duplicate or at least come close as the number 5 man in the rotation? If Dice-K performance is subpar due to health or ineffectiveness, we have Tim Wakefield and possibly Felix Doubront waiting in the wings
The Red Sox finished only six games out of the wild card in 2010. I believe Lackey and Dice-K can make up those six losses. Combine that with the changes of personnel on the diamond and you can see why Red Sox nation is sitting on the edge of their seats waiting for opening day.