Will Josh Beckett Return to Glory in 2011?
By Brian Phair
A few years ago, Josh Beckett was without a doubt the Red Sox #1 starter. He could do no wrong in Boston as the ace of the staff and helped carry the Sox to a World Series title in 2007. From 2006-2009, Beckett went 65-34 with a 4.05 era and went 7-3 with a 3.07 era in 14 games spread out over 9 post-season series. Now, after a poor, injury-filled 2010 season, there are question marks galore surrounding Beckett. When you factor in his age (he will turn 31 in May) and the fact he will be pitching in his 11th major league season, there is a right to be concerned. As the new crop of young starters have supplanted him at the front of the rotation, where does Beckett go from here? What is his role? Can he still be a top-tier pitcher that opponents fear? (more after the jump)
There isn’t an easy answer to most of the questions surrounding Josh Beckett. He lost some of his swagger and dominance last season partly due to injury and partly due to performance. He was lacking confidence during the 21 starts he had last year and his 6-6 record with a 5.78 era show that lack of confidence. There is no one that is harder on himself than Beckett and if anyone can get their swagger and confidence back, it is the fiery Texan. Confidence builds off of performance and consistency, so if Beckett can go out to the mound every 5 days and give the Sox a chance to win, then he will return to form. That being said, age and predictability are issues that raise red flags.
Beckett was dominant at a young age with the Florida Marlins. He already had accumulated 609 innings pitched before age 25 and has already thrown over 1,500 innings in his career. Being a hard-thrower with a sharp curve, there is more strain on Beckett’s arm and back, which may have attributed to his back issues last season. The older he gets, the more likely he will get injured and the longer it will take for him to recover from those injuries. There is optimism that Beckett will be 100% healthy entering 2011, but with a back injury, there is always the risk of re-injury. There is also a risk that Beckett will modify his delivery to compensate for his previous issue, effecting his performance.
Now that we have looked at the potential negative outcomes for Beckett, let’s look at the positives. He is a tough son-of-a-bitch, period. He demands perfection from himself when he is on the mound and has the ability to lock-in and dominate. He is a focused competitor that I want on my team at any age. Beckett was bumped to the 3rd or 4th starter spot and will be even more motivated to work harder and prove himself, resulting in a better final product. Last year was a blip in the Beckett radar and he has every chance of putting his woes behind him in 2011 with a few strong performances to begin the season. No one on the roster has more experience in big games (regular season and post-season) than Beckett, so if he can right-the-ship, the Sox rotation will be extremely strong.
Ultimately, I think Beckett can re-invigorate his career with a strong 2011 season and he will prove his doubters wrong. He will likely have to re-define himself in the near future like so many power pitchers have had to do late in their careers by becoming more of a finesse guy and rely less on just over-powering opponents. If he can adjust his style but maintain his pinpoint command, the wins will come and Red Sox nation will be at peace. The Sox will not be successful in 2011 without him, but have the potential to be incredible with a strong Beckett on the mound every 5 days. 2011 will be the re-emergence of Josh Beckett.